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GDT - Truculence returns Flames @ Leafs | 7:30PM EST TSN4

number17

Mod Squad
Burkie's Flames has been quite a story in the NHL this year. Picked by some to contend for McDavids, the Flames are, surprisingly, still well in the playoff picture after 28 games. In fact, 38 points in the tough Western conference has them tied for 5th in the West, in what is turning out to be a surprising development for a team that finished 2nd worst in the West last season.

Led by a Norris-worthy season (thus far) by Giordano, the Flames have plenty of scoring depth. 10 players are in double digit in points already and are on pace for 30+ points. The Flames are 5th in GFA in the league, scoring average of 3.01G per game (compared to TO's 2nd in league GFA, 3.39GFA). Defensively the Flames are a lot more average, allowing 2.49 GAA for 11th in league (which is still better than Toronto's near bottom GAA) Calgary allows 29 shots per game, which is again, average ~ average minus.

What has given Calgary success is their consistency and their ability to win close games. Calgary has NOT lost 2 games in a row since Oct 28 (and even that was a SO loss). Their longest losing streak is 2, and this is just a very consistent team that comes to work every night, every shift. I wish I can say the same about the Leafs.

Calgary's goaltending isn't especially strong (Ramo and Hiller at .915 and .913 respectively), and coming off a loss to SJ on Sat night, we have a chance to hand them their 2nd losing streak of the season tonight.

Komarov is still out, with what is now confirmed to be concussion (thanks Ovie, and thanks to NHL for not even considering discipline to a clear hit to the head) and no lineup change is expected. Bernier is expected to get another start tonight.


Go Leafs Go!!!
 
It's the Burkie-bowl!

It'll have to be pretty weird for Burke to watch this one in the press box, considering how much ownership he still has of this Leaf roster:

Players brought in by Brian Burke:

Phil Kessel
Tyler Bozak
James van Riemsdyk
Joffrey Lupul
Nazem Kadri
Jake Gardiner
Morgan Rielly
Dion Phaneuf
Cody Franson

Players brought in by Dave Nonis:

David Clarkson
Jonathan Bernier
Peter Holland
Trevor Smith

Players brought in by Brendave Nonahan:

Richard Panik
David Booth
Mike Santorelli
Daniel Winnik
Stephane Robidas

Players brought in by JFJ:

Korbinian Holzer
James Reimer

With the exception of the starting goalie, the entire core of the team was acquired by Burke. Hopefully the boys can put on a good show for the old boss.
 
You can slide Franson, Lupul and Gardiner onto Nonis' plate IMO, all were cap-related deals which I believe he initiated.
 
You can slide Franson, Lupul and Gardiner onto Nonis' plate IMO, all were cap-related deals which I believe he initiated.
That's just speculation though. Nonis may have had wide leeway in pursuing and negotiating trades when he worked under Burke, but all we know for sure is that Burke was the guy in charge when those deals happened, and he's the guy that would have made the final decision.

Shanahan/Nonis now is a similar situation. Nonis may have been 100% responsible for all the additions we've made since Shanahan took over, but since Shanahan's the man in charge with the final say, it's pretty much impossible to determine how much credit (or blame) Nonis deserves on his own for the moves that have been made.
 
The question is which team will decide to show up today, we cant expect anything from Kessel but we will need JVR to play
 
Or, manage their minutes accordingly ... I hate the idea of lumping the 3 weakest possession F's on the same line (atta boy Carlyle!) but it's worse to play them 17, 18 minutes even when they're clearly the worst line of the 4 ... the last few games Carlyle's smartened up and limited their icetime to 14ish minutes. Until the '1st line' figures out how to score again, Carlyle gotta manage his 1st line in terms of minutes and line matchup's. This is a defensive liability line you can't put them against quality opponents, especially when you have the last change.
 
cf% - zone-start adjusted 5v5 close corsi percentage
rel - zone-start afjusted 5v5 close corsi percentage relative to teammates


Line 1

C T.Bozak (28): 26gms, 11gls, 24pts, 43.6cf%, -5.0rel, 18:40 (82gms, 35gls, 76pts) ---- 57.5fo%
C J.Jooris (24): 21gms, 8gls, 12pts, 45.9cf%, -0.2rel, 15:25 (82gms, 31gls, 47pts) ---- 49.0fo%

W P.Kessel (27): 26gms, 13gls, 27pts, 46.9cf%, -0.7rel, 18:21 (82gms, 41gls, 85pts)
W J.Hudler (31): 27gms, 11gls, 26pts, 49.3cf%, +3.6rel, 18:03 (82gms, 33gls, 79pts)

W J.Vanriemsdyk (25): 26gms, 10gls, 21pts, 44.0cf%, -4.7rel, 19:16 (82gms, 32gls, 66pts)
W J.Gaudreau (21): 27gms, 5gls, 21pts, 49.0cf%, +3.7rel, 16:15 (82gms, 15gls, 64pts)

Line 2

C N.Kadri (24): 26gms, 7gls, 15pts, 54.5cf%, +5.8rel, 16:33 (82gms, 22gls, 47pts) ---- 48.6fo%
C S.Monahan (20): 28gms, 10gls, 19pts, 50.2cf%, +4.1rel, 19:29 (82gms, 29gls, 56pts) ---- 50.4fo%

W J.Lupul (31): 14gms, 6gls, 10pts, 60.5cf%, +13.6rel, 16:44 (82gms, 35gls, 59pts)
W C.Glencross (32): 28gms, 5gls, 19pts, 48.1cf%, +0.2rel, 18:09 (82gms, 15gls, 56pts)

W M.Santorelli (29): 26gms, 4gls, 18pts, 47.0cf%, -2.4rel, 13:42 (82gms, 13gls, 57pts)
W D.Jones (30): 15gms, 4gls, 8pts, 46.7cf%, -1.5rel, 15:37 (82gms, 22gls, 44pts)

Line 3

C P.Holland (23): 26gms, 6gls, 11pts, 48.3cf%, -0.5rel, 13:49 (82gms, 19gls, 35pts) ---- 45.0fo%
C M.Granlund (21): 17gms, 3gls, 9pts, 44.1cf%, -3.6rel, 15:26 (82gms, 15gls, 43pts) ---- 34.4fo%

W D.Clarkson (30): 26gms, 8gls, 10pts, 48.6cf%, -0.0rel, 15:06 (82gms, 26gls, 32pts)
W P.Byron (25): 28gms, 5gls, 10pts, 52.1cf%, +7.0rel, 15:36 (82gms, 15gls, 29pts)

W D.Winnik (29): 24gms, 1gls, 9pts, 54.6cf%, +5.5rel, 15:49 (82gms, 3gls, 31pts)
W M.Ferland (22): 9gms, 0gls, 1pts, 41.7cf%, -5.6rel, 11:20 (82gms, 0gls, 9pts)

Line 4

C T.Smith (29): 12gms, 0gls, 2pts, 49.3cf%, -0.1rel, 9:41 (82gms, 0gls, 14pts) ---- 51.0fo%
C M.Stajan (31): 12gms, 1gls, 3pts, 54.3cf%, +10.5rel, 11:52 (82gms, 7gls, 21pts) ---- 49.6fo%

W R.Panik (23): 23gms, 5gls, 6pts, 50.3cf%, +1.8rel, 8:47 (82gms, 18gls, 21pts)
W L.Bouma (24): 27gms, 5gls, 9pts, 39.1cf%, -7.5rel, 12:27 (82gms, 15gls, 27pts)

W D.Booth (30): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts, 50.0cf%, -0.1rel, 9:05 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)
W B.Bollig (28): 25gms, 0gls, 2pts, 34.6cf%, -12.3rel, 9:10 (82gms, 0gls, 7pts)




Pair 1

D D.Phaneuf (29): 26gms, 1gls, 13pts, 48.4cf%, -0.2rel, 23:18 (82gms, 3gls, 41pts)
D T.Brodie (24): 28gms, 6gls, 21pts, 49.1cf%, +2.0rel, 24:57 (82gms, 18gls, 62pts)

D C.Franson (27): 24gms, 4gls, 17pts, 50.4cf%, +3.8rel, 20:36 (82gms, 14gls, 58pts)
D M.Giordano (31): 28gms, 7gls, 28pts, 49.5cf%, +2.7rel, 24:24 (82gms, 21gls, 82pts)

Pair 2

D J.Gardiner (24): 24gms, 2gls, 8pts, 47.1cf%, -1.8rel, 19:50 (82gms, 7gls, 27pts)
D D.Wideman (31): 27gms, 10gls, 17pts, 45.8cf%, -0.7rel, 23:27 (82gms, 30gls, 52pts)

D K.Holzer (26): 5gms, 0gls, 0pts, 48.0cf%, -1.0rel, 18:07 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)
D K.Russell (27): 26gms, 0gls, 13pts, 46.4cf%, +0.9rel, 23:07 (82gms, 0gls, 41pts)

Pair 3

D M.Rielly (20): 25gms, 3gls, 9pts, 52.3cf%, +5.1rel, 18:00 (82gms, 10gls, 30pts)
D L.Smid (28): 26gms, 0gls, 1pts, 45.8cf%, +0.6rel, 14:35 (82gms, 0gls, 3pts)

D S.Robidas (37): 25gms, 0gls, 4pts, 45.0cf%, -5.1rel, 17:15 (82gms, 0gls, 13pts)
D D.Engelland (32): 22gms, 0gls, 2pts, 42.6cf%, -4.1rel, 14:08 (82gms, 0gls, 8pts)




Starting Goalies

G J.Bernier (26): 20gms, .916sv%
G J.Hiller (32): 16gms, .913sv%

Backup Goalies

G J.Reimer (26): 9gms, .898sv%
G K.Ramo (28): 13gms, .917sv%



Injured / Suspended

W L.Komarov (27): 23gms, 4gls, 16pts, 47.0cf%, -1.8rel, 15:41 (82gms, 14gls, 57pts)
D R.Polak (28): 21gms, 3gls, 5pts, 48.2cf%, -1.1rel, 21:06 (82gms, 12gls, 20pts)
W C.Ashton (23): 3gms, 0gls, 0pts, 56.3cf%, +8.9rel, 6:09 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)

W M.Raymond (29): 10gms, 5gls, 7pts, 44.8cf%, -1.6rel, 17:28 (82gms, 41gls, 57pts)
W J.Colborne (25): 11gms, 0gls, 8pts, 36.7cf%, -11.3rel, 16:21 (82gms, 0gls, 60pts)
C M.Backlund (25): 11gms, 1gls, 4pts, 48.5cf%, +1.5rel, 17:50 (82gms, 8gls, 30pts) --- 50.5fo%
 
its actually a pretty comprehensive comparison to his teammates including how linemates play with and without him and how they play with and without each other.
 
Its starting to look more and more like you just can't play Bozak and JVR togehter. They are both just so bad without the puck. I'd give them some sheltered 3rd line minutes, a la Franson and Kadri in the lockout year, and see if that helps at all.

Booth-Kadri-Kessel
JVR-Holland-Lupul
Komarov-Bozak-Santorelli
Clarkson-Winnik-Panik
 
It's kind of weird, for years it felt like all the hockey media was blowing smoke up Calgary's ass when they sucked, but now I barely hear about them.
At least, not to the level they were praising them when they sucked year in and out.
 
its actually a pretty comprehensive comparison to his teammates including how linemates play with and without him and how they play with and without each other.

Do WoWY (With or Without You) numbers help with this as well, or is rel just a better option?
 
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