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Why the Leafs Need to Trade Bernier Now

BeLeafer

BeLeafer

Well-known member
Bernier is very likely to perform worse under Babcock than he has over the past two seasons. He should be traded before his major weakness becomes glaringly evident. That weakness is an inability to maintain his focus. It's why he often lets in early goals and softies. He drifts off if he's not being peppered with shots.

Here's the evidence ...

Save percentages for games where Bernier played more than 2 periods (this is based on game log data):

2014-15

30 shots or fewer (19 games): 0.898

More than 30 shots (31 games): 0.925

2013-14

30 shots or fewer (15 games): 0.893

More than 30 shots (35 games): 0.933

Babcock's teams typically average 30 shots or fewer per game.
 
in anotherworldly season price's sv% in games when he faced 30 or fewer shots was 911.

Lundqvist's was 905.

Rasks's was 895.
 
I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade the guy. He put in one of the best seasons by a Leafs goalie of all time in his first year here (objectively - unless you want to completely abandon the save % argument). And save percentage is transferable and blah blah blah but to not give him a mulligan for last season (when, frankly, he was ok in the first half before the team's historic horrible run under Horachek, when everybody quit) is unfair. The Leafs were complete and utter shit. And it isn't like he Toskalol'ed here. His numbers weren't good but they also weren't bad.
 
Unless some team offered a 1st what is the point. It's q safer bet to take a chance on Bernier being a good goalie than mid round picks/prospects.

Plus he probably had more value at the deadline as a rental if you are going to trade him. Now no teams are looking for starters.
 
MindzEye said:
I think the argument is that Bernier >> Lehner and Lehner got a 1st.
Click to expand...

No denying it but the likely hood of us getting a 1st from the Sens or us sending our starter to them is very slim.

Family ties was written all over that deal
 
mbow30 said:
in anotherworldly season price's sv% in games when he faced 30 or fewer shots was 911.

Lundqvist's was 905.

Rasks's was 895.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how you compiled these numbers, but using actual game log data and excluding any games with fewer than 2 period played, here's the save percentages for each in games with 30 or fewer shots (same standard used for Bernier):

Price: 0.923
Lunqvist: 0.910
Rask: 0.910

Those are all significantly better than Bernier's 0.898.
 
mbow30 said:
I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade the guy. He put in one of the best seasons by a Leafs goalie of all time in his first year here (objectively - unless you want to completely abandon the save % argument). And save percentage is transferable and blah blah blah but to not give him a mulligan for last season (when, frankly, he was ok in the first half before the team's historic horrible run under Horachek, when everybody quit) is unfair. The Leafs were complete and utter shit. And it isn't like he Toskalol'ed here. His numbers weren't good but they also weren't bad.
Click to expand...

Here's the thing .... in his first season, he had the exact same issue. Maybe the high shots against in most games made him look better than he is? High shots totals (e.g., 30+) inflate save percentages.
 
Pretty thin argument, imo. Would need a lot more convincing data besides the "under 30 shots" argument. The more shots you face, the more chances you have to improve your save percentage. This also says nothing about quality of chances which we should certainly hope will come down in a Babcock system. Will be interesting to see how he performs this year when he is likely going to get a short-term "prove it" type of deal in front of a team that hopefully gives a shit.
 
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