Post Your Prospect Rankings

We've had a chance to see some of our kids over the last few games, so it's probably a good time to throw up our personal prospect lists. I'll be borrowing from the Hockeys Future ranking system for the grades ( http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections/ ). I'm going to use 50 NHL games as my cutoff.

1) Travis Dermott - 8C We need to see it in harder usage, but what he did last year suggested that there's top pairing upside there.

2) Rasmus Sandin - 8C Seen him for a few games now, and wow. I'm still very high on Lilly, but despite being a year younger, Sandin appears to be a step better than Lilly already

3) Timothy Liljegren - 7.5B Has taken solid steps forward. The skating looks plus, the vision and passing ability is plus, the decision making process is still a work in progress, and it's where Sandin appears to have an edge on him at this point.

4) Andreas Johnsson - 7.5C Plus acceleration, good hands, great instincts around the net with a solid shot.

5) SDA - 7.5D Obvious project. Kid is tiny but the skill is so obvious, despite him playing against competition older, way bigger, way more experienced than he is, but damn if the kid hasn't been impressive. Did not look out of place in pre season hockey at all, which as a barely 18 yr old midget, is impressive.

6) Carl Grundstrom - 7C Better shot at being a regular NHL'er than SDA, but lower offensive potential so here we are. Plays angry, shoots the puck a lot, might end up as a limited middle 6 guy who meshes well with higher skilled players by taking the beatings they don't. Like Hyman with a set of hands.

7/8) Rosen 7D & Borgman 7D Don't have a preferred order here. Rosen looks like he's figured out North American hockey after a rough transition and is probably a step better than Borgman at the moment. Borgman is younger with a better 2 way toolkit imo. Both look like they have sleeper 2nd pairing upside but the downside is career AHL/Euro stud.

9) Eemeli Rasanen - 6.5C Huge, skates okay, has some puck skills. I think there's a ceiling as a 2nd pairing RHD there but it looks like it's going to be the long road with him

10) Pierre Engvall - 6.5C Big kid, looks like he's added a step in the off season. Still a bit of an awkward stride but seems to have a functioning IQ to go with decent hands, a heavy shot and what appears to be at least average speed now. If he fills out a bit, it will be hard to keep him out of the top 9, he brings size and complimentary skills that will be useful as hell with the expensive centre depth we're going to have going forward



System Strengths: Depth of talent on the blueline and wings. There's probably no star talent hiding in here, but we don't need that, do we? It looks like we have a really solid group of cheap youth coming through that should be able to play with, and support the studs. I can't think of too many teams with a group of non full time NHL defenders as good as Dermott-Sandin-Lilly-Rosen-Borgman, which is of course partially why the Marlies won the Calder last year.

System Weaknesses: Goaltending and centre. But seriously who gives a **** if we develop a single prospect centre for the next 7 years or so? SDA is an interesting prospect there, but that's a hell of a log jam. In net, we're kind of a ****ing wasteland I think. I'm not seeing Sparks as ready for the NHL yet, and he kind of has to be. Woll hasn't developed, Scott is shit, Bouthillier looks meh. It's not a position of immediate need, but the sooner we find an heir apparent to the #1 job, the better.

Great rankings. As I have stated, I have some interesting contacts again. All I will say, is that the Leafs were ecstatic to get this Sandin kid. And yeah, they have him rated over Lilly as well.

Dubas obviously has elephant balls to have waited and traded to still get him in the first round, I think that indicates that he is willing also, to wait out Micheal Nylander who has taken a really nice kid and put him in this silly position.

I am sorta pleasantly surprised someone has figured out how good this Sandin kid is, this early, but hey, you are Mindzeye.

No big issues with your rankings ME ... other than Johnsson. Borderline prospect at this point (age-wise). It looks like Dubas has snatched two gems out of his first draft. I'd also be tempted to put Sandin above Dermott (and I'm really high on the latter) but that would probably be a bad case of recency bias and we haven't seen enough of Sandin yet.

Rasanen's stock has risen with his seemingly smooth transition to pro hockey in the KHL. He's made the cut and is getting regular, if modest, ice time. I think he even saw some pp time recently, although it was in a blowout game (in which he scored a goal).

I'm a big Bracco guy, so he'd make the bottom of the list for me. I agree on Sandin - he has looked very good. The future of our D might be better than most think.

Player (upside)

1. Dermott (top pair 2-way D)
2. Sandin (top pair 2-way D)
3. Timmay (top 4 offensive D)
4. SDA (offensive forward)
5. Grundstrom (top 9 two way forward)
6. Johnsson (top 9 two way forward)
7. Borgman (4-6 D)
8. Rosen (4-6 D)
9. Bracco (top 6 offensive specialist)
10. Rasanen (tough minutes D)

Sleeper: Riley Stotts. Game really took off once he started getting minutes in Calgary. Seems to be a well rounded guy. Will be interesting to see if he shows more in a full season in Calgary.

I like Johnsson a tonne, but I think Grundstrom and SDA could have higher upside. But they are in the tier below the three D, so there isn't a lot between them for me.

my sleeper in your system is Adam Brooks.

sandin
dermott
lily
johnsson
grundstrom
rosen
sda
bracco
brooks
engvall

i like borgman but he has very limited upside, imo. bottom pair guy max. he's already there but i dont' think he has the skillset to be better than that.

rasanen is interesting because of his size but is a long term project and may never get there.

i have sandin above dermott on account of offensive potential. dermott is an unbelievable skater and smart player, but there are limits to his offensive upside. sandin looks like he could develop into a 40+ point defenseman with similarly good defensive instincts.

imo Lilly is clearly ahead of Dermott at the same age. I also have a hard time listing 24yr olds like Johnsson and Rosen as prospects without using their age to knock them down the list.

really tough group to rank, though.

zeke said:

imo Lilly is clearly ahead of Dermott at the same age. I also have a hard time listing 24yr olds like Johnsson and Rosen as prospects without using their age to knock them down the list.

really tough group to rank, though.

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Not sure how much it matters that Lilly at 19 is > than dermott at 19. I’m also not sure that is the case.

Dermott looks like he has the skill set to be a tough matchup d. Lillys still a bit of a project and imo not a lock to even be a great offensive dman, let alone a guy you trust against the other teams top guys.

Re risen and Johnson agreed but my thinking is they are today where we hope guys like grundstrom engvall and rasanen will be in a few years from now.

Where does everybody see Kapanen on that list? I think I’d have him behind sandin and dermott and ahead dof lily.

mbow30 said:

Where does everybody see Kapanen on that list? I think I’d have him behind sandin and dermott and ahead dof lily.

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Going with mindz list i'd have him slotted in behind Liljegren. Ahead of Johnsson. I like Kapanen a lot as a middle 6 forward that can PK. I think he settles in as a consistent 20/20 guy.

Where is a guy like Sean Durzi on peoples list? Was he an early cut at camp? Not a good look for an overager or was there just not enough room for him?

I noticed some of you guys are somewhat down on Liljegren. I think he's going to be a good one. I don't see Karlsson level special talent but i think he can be a really effective top 4.

I was hopeful of a Karlson like talent in Liljegren, but I haven't seen it since he came over.

BeLeafer said:

No big issues with your rankings ME ... other than Johnsson. Borderline prospect at this point (age-wise).

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He's only 23 still. I think we've gotten to the point in the new NHL where these small, early-mid 20's break out prospects aren't rare anymore. Atkinson, Gourde, Zucker, Byron, etc. 5 years ago I probably wouldn't have thought about someone about to turn 24 as a prospect, but given his trajectory and what we've seen occur as a trend around the league, I've changed my stance.

It looks like Dubas has snatched two gems out of his first draft. I'd also be tempted to put Sandin above Dermott (and I'm really high on the latter) but that would probably be a bad case of recency bias and we haven't seen enough of Sandin yet.

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I think that part of prospect ranking has to be proximity to their upside. Sandin has been impressive, but I think even the most bullish observer (other than Zeke) would admit that he's at least 3-4 years away from being what we hope he can be. There's a lot of physical development he's going to need just to get to where Dermott is today. Dermott needs to prove his ability to impact tougher matchups, but he's on the cusp of being that guy. Sandin might have a higher ultimate upside, but he's way further away from achieving it.

Rasanen's stock has risen with his seemingly smooth transition to pro hockey in the KHL. He's made the cut and is getting regular, if modest, ice time. I think he even saw some pp time recently, although it was in a blowout game (in which he scored a goal).

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Yeah, I think this makes him a safer bet, but I don't think there's a higher ceiling involved with him. I think you're topping out as a #4 here. That he made a team a lot of people didn't expect him to is a great sign and gives him a higher probability of making any kind of an impact with us though.

Leafin' said:

Where is a guy like Sean Durzi on peoples list? Was he an early cut at camp? Not a good look for an overager or was there just not enough room for him?

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I just don't know enough and haven't seen enough of him to rank yet. Intriguing absolutely. But I want to see where and how he plays this year before I put him on a top 10 list. We have a deep if unspectacular prospect system and someone with a deeper track record of quality play would have to get bumped to include him.

MindzEye said:

He's only 23 still. I think we've gotten to the point in the new NHL where these small, early-mid 20's break out prospects aren't rare anymore. Atkinson, Gourde, Zucker, Byron, etc. 5 years ago I probably wouldn't have thought about someone about to turn 24 as a prospect, but given his trajectory and what we've seen occur as a trend around the league, I've changed my stance.

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I should have probably mentioned more than age. I see Johnsson as pretty much graduated. Also, don't think there's much upside beyond what he's shown. It's fairly predictable at this point (~20 goal scoring winger, smart two-way play, fiesty, pker ... really good player). He's also grinded out the AHL season, so not too many questions about whether he can handle the NHL grind. He'll be 24 shortly as well.

I think that part of prospect ranking has to be proximity to their upside. Sandin has been impressive, but I think even the most bullish observer (other than Zeke) would admit that he's at least 3-4 years away from being what we hope he can be. There's a lot of physical development he's going to need just to get to where Dermott is today. Dermott needs to prove his ability to impact tougher matchups, but he's on the cusp of being that guy. Sandin might have a higher ultimate upside, but he's way further away from achieving it.

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Not sure about using proximity to upside. The HF system is based on upside/probability of making it. Tough to rank with both factors. The thing with Sandin though is that I'm not sure he's so far from hitting his upside. Some guys hit the upside faster than others (e.g., Kaberle). Hard to predict. I'm not sure they are so far apart. We need more games from Sandin, obviously. But all indications so far is that he's handling whatever they've thrown at him extremely well. His weaknesses will be exposed with tougher competition but I haven't seen much of them yet.

Agree on Rasanen. That said, there's always (the largely mythical) allure of the big guy with late blooming upside.

BeLeafer said:

Not sure about using proximity to upside. The HF system is based on upside/probability of making it.

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Yeah, I have both as 8C though and someone had to go first. I'll take the guy who might hit his upside this year, instead of the guy who might do it in 3-4 years if we're ranking now.

The thing with Sandin though is that I'm not sure he's so far from hitting his upside. Some guys hit the upside faster than others (e.g., Kaberle). Hard to predict. I'm not sure they are so far apart.

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Even Kaberle didn't really hit stride until 21. As good as Sandin looked in camp, it's not like he was a dominant prospect in the OHL last year. Expecting him to make the show full time within the next 2 seasons is probably overly optiministic.

We need more games from Sandin, obviously. But all indications so far is that he's handling whatever they've thrown at him extremely well. His weaknesses will be exposed with tougher competition but I haven't seen much of them yet.

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Where he gets put this year will speak volumes imo. If they play him in the AHL and he excels, then okay maybe he's closer than I think. But until we've seen him compete at a high level against professionals, caution is the play. His weaknesses according to scouting reports is in his physical strength. If he struggled at times against 16-19 yr olds in the OHL last season, I would imagine that seeing full grown AHL'ers on the regular would uncover more warts than we've seen in the pre season, where he's probably playing on adrenaline, this being his first NHL camp and all.

After having the benefit of seeing training camp, this is what I figure my ranking will be.

First, I'll start by saying that I'm omitting Travis Dermott, Kasperi Kapanen & Andreas Johnsson from my list. "Prospects" are players who have the potential to make your team, but at this point I consider all three of them to have graduated to the NHL. We certainly aren't going to see any of them back in the AHL this season.

If I was ranking them with the rest of the prospect pool, I'd have them at one, two and three on my list---Dermott, Kapanen and then Johnsson. I think Dermott already has the capability to be at least a decent second-pairing defenseman in the NHL. So if he's playing third-pair minutes for us this year and Ozhiganov or Holl can be reliable partners, I expect him to perform pretty well with us.

What I like about Kapanen and Johnsson as prospects is that they both still do have a decently high ceiling. Both of them have enough offensive potential that I could see them putting it together and being good scoring wingers on one of the top two lines. But they both have high floors too--even as speedy, 3rd line penalty killer types, they'd be useful players.

My list:

1. Rasmus Sandin - This may be jumping the gun after one great camp, but I really liked what I saw out of him this training camp. Great at moving the puck, calm and poised under pressure and generally he's a pretty smart player out there. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he does in the AHL, especially if/when he's paired with the #2 guy on my list.
   
   
2. Timothy Liljegren - He doesn't jump out at you as much as Sandin does, but I still like where he is in his development. If he can pan out as an NHL player, his puck-moving abilities would already be an upgrade on most of the guys on the right side of our defense.
   
   
3. Carl Grundstrom - He didn't have the strongest camp, but I won't be surprised if he quickly positions himself as one of our first call-ups if there's an opening on the wing. He's established himself as a high-end player very quickly in both the SHL and the AHL, and he plays the kind of gritty net-front game that'll endear him to Babcock. I see his upside as Leo Komarov, minus the extreme ability to agitate and plus a pair of hands around the net.
   
   
4. Jeremy Bracco - He's a guy who I think has really put himself back in the conversation, after being a high-end offensive player at times in junior and then having a quiet rookie professional season. He's obviously put in a lot of work off the ice and with the skills coaches, and it's shown this camp. If that can translate to him becoming a front-line player with the Marlies this year, then he's another guy that might put him in contention for a job on one of the top-3 lines when the Leafs lose guys as cap casualties, as well as to the expansion draft.
   
   
5. Pierre Engvall - James Mirtle has a nice profile of this guy in this piece. Watching him, he looks like an interesting combination of size, hands and skating. He also had a nice first season in Sweden's top league, and surprisingly good start in the AHL. Mirtle also makes the argument that he could be a late bloomer, since he didn't take up hockey seriously until a relatively late age. Depending on how he progresses in his first full AHL season, I could see him surprising and challenging Grundstrom for the title of "first call-up".
   
   
6. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev - I can't help but join in with the excitement about this kid. He's exactly the kind of high-end potential prospect I love to see my team take a chance on. He's obviously a longer team project---he's just about as young as he possibly could have been to be eligible for the 2018 draft, just played what would usually be a player's draft minus-1 season and looks like a 12 year old. But he's got time---he's a center in an organization with a stacked group of centers at the NHL level, and he's got two more seasons of junior eligibility.
   
   
7. Adam Brooks - I liked what I saw from him this camp, playing on a line with Bracco. I don't think he's a prospect with a high ceiling, but I do see him as a guy that could potentially be an answer for us at the 4th line center position. He's a smart two-way player, and looks like he's come a long way since the beginning of last year.
   
   
8. Sean Durzi - I'll admit I'm not really a huge fan of drafting CHL over-agers. The CHL is so over-scouted it's just so rare any of them fall completely through the cracks. But it looks like he played well enough in his draft year that he probably should have been drafted, and you'd have to consider last year a pretty solid draft + 1 season for him. Now he has to go back there as a 19/20 year old, and really be a dominant player at that level.
   
   
9. Eemeli Rasanen - He didn't have an overly impressive post-draft season, but still remains the headline member of the group of towering defensive prospects drafted by the Leafs during the Mark Hunter era. He's chosen to turn pro and head over to the KHL this year, so it'll be interesting to see how he does at that level this year. A side benefit of him going to the KHL is that it makes him a "defected player", which essentially means the Leafs will continue to hold his NHL rights indefinitely while he's over there, instead of the usual two years for players drafted out of the CHL.
   
   
10. Joseph Woll - He's sort of our top goalie prospect by default at the moment. In the two years of being drafted, he's been pretty up and down. He's had stretches of elite play in the NCAA and has played well in the WJC, but he's also had extended periods where he's struggled and overall has put up pretty average numbers.

nice list.

agreed with all of that.....except Bracco.

Yeah, I get that.

At the OHL level and the AHL level, Bracco's been pretty mediocre for about a year and a half now. So if that just continues, it'll make his spot on my list look like a pretty big stretch.

But we'll see. I think he takes a decent step forward this year with the increased opportunity he'll have with the Marlies.

zeke said:

nice list.

agreed with all of that.....except Bracco.

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What happened to your hard on for Rasanen?

nothing. I like all thosebguys ahead of him too. except Bracco.

Brooks and Durzi are close calls. but nothing I'd argue with.