OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MyNameIsJonas

Active member
As for Rowdy, I think there's enough there to warrant another chance. He's only 24 and has been studly at every level (sometimes it takes him a while, but was 185 wRC+ in AAA before the callup this year). His walk rate has increased from abysmal to just bad, another increase to average would be pretty huge and in line with his minor league performances. His batted ball profile is basically everything you want from a young power hitter. 84% hard or medium contact, 80% pull or centrefield. He just misses too many pitches (14.5% swstr...jeebus)

His batted ball profile is basically the same as some of the elite sluggers in the league. (He's 43rd in MLB in hard contact%). He just doesn't make enough contact overall. Looking at his plate discipline numbers, his Zone swing% (% of pitches in the zone he swings at) is really fucking low, so he's being ridiculously choosey. Too choosey. He needs to go up there and be taking about 15-20% more rips than he's currently taking. Hard rips, and let babip do the rest.

This is outside of my wheelhouse, but I wonder if there's something technical in his swing keeping him from making more contact (his zone contact rates are also terrible, so when he is swinging, he misses a lot...when he connects, he's barrelling a lot of shit).

Regardless, there is some intriguing shit in his statistics and at only 24, with his size and power I don't think you can punt on him yet. As much as I'd love Eddy back, I'd rather see him winning shit somewhere else than doing a retirement tour here winning 70 games a couple of times.
That's fair if you see something in Rowdy. Im less than sure he can offer a good enough 1B stick. I guess im okay with a Rowdy/Drury platoon if we are having one more show me year. I guess wgat i dobt get is this kindness to Smoak when Rowdy should be everyday these last 2 months.

Also makes me nervous Alford is out of options. Why do i see him dealt for a AAA SP with #5 ceiling.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I was a big Alford booster over the years, but between delaying the start of his baseball career to play football, and injuries, he's just lost too much development time and left way too much upside on the table. 25 yrs old and has looked plenty mediocre at AAA in his last two attempts at it. I don't much care what we get for him at this point if we choose to move on, which we probably should.
 

MyNameIsJonas

Active member
I was a big Alford booster over the years, but between delaying the start of his baseball career to play football, and injuries, he's just lost too much development time and left way too much upside on the table. 25 yrs old and has looked plenty mediocre at AAA in his last two attempts at it. I don't much care what we get for him at this point if we choose to move on, which we probably should.
When healthy, hes raked in AAA since March. He just rarely healthy. IMO our highest upside OF behind Lourdes. Id look to move Grichuk this winter. I think he is what he is, Teo might be learning still
 

zeke

Active member
Grichuk (27): 2361pa, 105wrc+, 9.8war, 2.7war650 ----- AAA 108wrc+
Teoscar (26): 1098pa, 104wrc+, 1.8war, 1.1war650 ---- AAA 119wrc+
Drury (26): 1500pa, 86wrc+, 0.6war, 0.3war650 ----- AAA 131wrc+

Jansen (24): 435pa, 82wrc+, 2.2war, 3.3war650 ----- AAA 151wrc+
Gurriel (25): 584pa, 116wrc+, 2.3war, 2.6war650 ---- AAA 106wrc+
Biggio (24): 309pa, 89wrc+, 0.5war, 1.1war650 ------- AAA 152wrc+
Rowdy (24): 384pa, 94wrc+, 0.2war, 0.4war650 ------ AAA 103wrc+
Fisher (25): 366pa, 76wrc+, 0.1war, 0.2war650 -------- AAA 130wrc+
McKinney (24): 356pa, 91wrc+, -0.2war, -0.4war650 - AAA 126wrc+

McGuire (24): 75pa, 112wrc+, 0.6war, 5.2war650 --- AAA 80wrc+
Pompey (26): 159pa, 83wrc+, 0.2war, 0.8war650 --- AAA 106wrc+
Urena (23): 227pa, 73wrc+, 0.1war, 0.3war650 ------ AAA 72wrc+
Brito (26): 218pa, 32wrc+, -1.0war, -3.0war650 ------ AAA 113wrc+
Alford (24): 32pa, -23wrc+, -0.3war, -6.1war650 ---- AAA 92wrc+
Davis (27): 79pa, 9wrc+, -0.6war, -4.9war650 ------- AAA 113wrc+
 

zeke

Active member
They do.

But also, fangraphs just this year incorporated pitch framing into WAR and it's sent catcher WAR soaring, at least for the good framers. If they have it even close to right, catchers suddenly look way more valuable than we ever thought. And given that they are involved in every pitch of the game, I'm not too shocked by that.
 

UWHabs

Active member
by that I meant that would be nice to give him a couple years to learn 3B to an average level rather than use a quick hook to give up on that and force him to 1b.

Will be interesting to see long-term how the pieces fit. None of Vlad, Bo, Biggio really seem all that talented defensively. Lourdes has been fine in LF, but that's not a premium spot. To what level Vlad and Bo can improve their D, whether it's enough that they can actually stick at 3B/SS for the medium term, or at what point we need to shift them to 1B and 2b or 3b for Bo will be tough calls.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Depending on whose metrics you like, Bo is good at SS already as a 21 yr old. (DRS likes him a lot, UZR does not) so it stands to reason that even if he's not great defensively at SS, he's be pretty fucking good at 2B. Biggio's stick is going to have to play within the next year or two, otherwise what to do with Bo isn't really a problem if he doesn't stick at SS.
 

zeke

Active member
I still don't think all that much of our semi-young fake core, and still think our real shot at contention comes when our current 22yrs and younger group reached their primes:

CF Young 21 /Brown 17
RF Hiraldo 18 /Taylor 20
LF Conine 21 /Lopez 20
3B Groshans 18
SS Orelvis 17 / Hiraldo 18
2B Bichette 21
1B Vladdy 20
DH Kirk 20
C Moreno 19

SP Pearson 22
SP Manoah 21
SP SWR 18
SP Pardinho 18
SP Kloffenstin 18
SP Castillo 20
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I still don't think all that much of our semi-young fake core
Agreed. Worse is that we traded away a lot of established veteran skill players to get that group of fake youth instead of using those assets to augment that group you note as our real future.
 

axlsalinger

Active member
Groshans is 19 (turning 20 in November) and he could be the future 3B is Vlad can't stick there. Many scouts also don't think Orelvis will stick at SS but should hit, so he's another option at third down the road.
 

GEEMAN

Active member
Question for you experts

Barring any major injuries who do you think has the better career in the next 7-8 years

Vladi or Acuna Jr.

Criteria will be batting average , HR`S , RBI`s , OBP and OPS
 

zeke

Active member
Question for you experts

Barring any major injuries who do you think has the better career in the next 7-8 years

Vladi or Acuna Jr.

Criteria will be batting average , HR`S , RBI`s , OBP and OPS
if it's pure offense you're looking at, I definitely go with vladdy.

Acuna is starting to look like a capable CF now defensively, though, so overall he might end up being more valuable.
 

UWHabs

Active member
Strictly at the plate, Vladdy all day. More natty power, better eye at the plate.
Yep, for fantasy, not counting positional value, and not worrying about SB, then would likely take Vlad. But talking overall talent, it would be Acuna. Especially if you count his sweet-ass deal. He's already over 5 WAR, probably will end the season around 6. Although still blows my mind to think of how great he is, and how great he has been, but that he's still a chump compared to Trout. Not that that's here or there.

An interesting question though now that we've started to see them, is there a case to be made that Bichette will be a more valuable player overall than Vlad? Obviously we all still expect Vlad to be a better hitter, but if Bichette can keep clobbering the ball while also playing average-ish SS defense, man, it's tempting to start making a case for him.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
It kind of depends. Vladdy's ceiling is stupid. Like prime Bautista (160-180 wRC+ Bautista), but for 15-20 years instead of 6-7. I don't care about positional value, positional bias, etc if he hits like that.
 

CaptainBolduke

Active member
To think that he would be on the 3rd year of a 3/60 deal had this group not pulled the pin and panic signed Morales of all fucking people.

Edwin has 100 home runs under that contract and he's sneakily turned into one of the best power hitters of this era. Sitting on 410 career bombs now and leads MLB in HR's since 2012. Donaldson is 12th and Bautista despite being basically out of the league for 2 years (he played last year, but was old and busted) is 25th.

It wasn't a panic move. Shapiro simply wanted to begin the process of moving away from the previous regime's players. Eddie was the first (and worst) causality.
 

UWHabs

Active member
Usually 20 year olds are learning defense in single A.

Sometimes I think people forget how ridiculously young Vlad Jr. is.
Yeah, that's why you need to give him a lot of time. The only exception is if you think about moving him to LF or RF instead of 1B, then I might consider doing that sooner.

But his DRS numbers are not bad (-3), although UZR is really tough on him. But with the bat, he doesn't ever even have to be "good" at 3B, basically just "better than terrible". I mean, the WAR positional adjustment between 3B and 1B is something like 15 runs, so even as a -15 3B that's the same as if he were an average 1B. Team still needs a solid LH bat, but Vlad+Bo have the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in the league.
 
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