Question ....
How can the raps beat the warriors?
The same way they beat Philly and the Bucks. They largely locked down the 1st (Bucks) and 5th (Sixers) offenses in basketball. The Warriors were the 2nd best offence in basketball and are mediocre defensively.
They haven't had your typical road to the finals either. The Clippers were one of the worst defensive teams in the league (and the worst to make the playoffs), Houston was thoroughly mediocre this season (10th offensively and 11th defensively) with growing cracks in their cohesiveness (see CP3 complaining about Harden's effort level), and then Portland, who was a nice story and a good offence but mediocre defensively.
We just haven't seen this Warriors team tested and the analytics has suggested all year that they were finally vulnerable. Moreso now that KD is looking to miss at least the first few games of the series.
Man to man the matchups are interesting as well and favour the Raptors more than the media is about to tell us.
Bogut-Gasol
This might be one legged Boogie according to some of the stories that came out last night but dude tore his quad a couple of weeks ago. I'd be shocked if he was pain free and effective this soon after a quad tear.
Bogut is basically their version of Marc. Great defensively, chips in offensively (but doesn't act as a distributor like Marc does), but doesn't/can't play heavy minutes. They'll start Bogut but likely go small a whole bunch with Looney or evern Dray at the 5. Marc might be good enough defensively to hang even if the Warriors go small.
Draymond-Siakam
The media is going to tell us that this matchup is a wash out for the Warriors, but for the first time in these playoffs, there isn't going to be a strong defensive front court full of size and shot blocking collapsing down on Pascal.
Iggy-Kawhi
Who defends Kawhi is going to be an interesting decision. Klay and Iggy are used to have a size and strength advantage over the guards they usually check. This won't be the case for either on Kawhi. Whoever checks him is going to lose the matchup, it's a matter of how much and what parts of the game
Klay-Danny
So here's the thing. Dray and Klay (assuming Iggy is primary on Kawhi) are going to be the main help defenders. Danny is going to get open looks. We need him to wake the **** up. Danny remains an outstanding perimeter defender though and his veteran defensive ****ery will be needed to keep Klay from going off. Can't give him open looks.
Steph-Lowry
Steph is incredible...but he's a black hole defensively. Lowry will get to where he wants on the court and do what he wants. But he needs to get Steph in front of him. Let Steph try to win the series by hitting moving 25 footers. Where Steph really kills you is when the threat of the 3's opens up his ability to break you down off of the dribble and get layups for himself and open perimeter shots for his team. He's the only non Durant entity on this team that can create consistently in the half court.
Bench
Looney-Livingston-McKinnie vs FVV-Serge-Norm
A week ago, I would have lamented about how much of a shit kicking this was going to be (mostly on the strength of Looney). But not so much now. Our bench should be better, and noticeably. Livingston and McKinnie are pretty much unplayable if this series tightens up.
What are the perceptions/prognotications by those with a much more detailed understanding of the game?
The analytics models have the Raptors as favourites (without Durant in the lineup). That is not the narrative you will hear all week though. The narrative you'll hear is about the championship warriors and how much better they are, and home court will be explained away as the Warriors not taking regular season ball seriously, etc. The smarter ones amongst them will mention load management though (the Raps could have been a 63+ win team with 82 games of flat out Kawhi) and that the Raptors also put an emphasis on being ready for the playoffs, and not going balls out to beat Charlotte in February.
Can the raps win or are curry and company to much?
Raptors can absolutely win this series. There's some keys to it though
- How much can we keep Gasol on the court? Kerr will want to go small every time there's any struggles. Looney is 6'9 220 but athletic. Can Gasol's veteran savy keep him on the court against a small Warriors lineup? Gasol's playmaking can be huge against a team that will give up as much space around the paint as the Warriors. 6'9 Looney, and 6'8 Draymond is likely to be all the size they have under the rim.
- Raptors shooting. It's been up and down the entire playoffs. Danny Green specifically needs to hit some shots. He's going to get open just on the stucture of the help they're going to use against Kawhi. I don't see us winning too many games against the Warriors with 38-40% shooting. The Bucks weren't a great half court team offensively. The Warriors are. They're going to give up open shots though, we have to make them.