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GDT Leafs at Coyotes, 9PM

BeLeafer

Well-known member
Let's keep it rolling. I'm putting my 4-0 record on the line to keep the Leafs streak moving forward!

Coyotes on tap. We beat them on the road last season. They are coming off a barnburner victory over the Capitals on Sunday. Mike Smith has been very weak this season, although his last two games were reasonably good. No elite offensive power on their forward lines, but some on the backend (Yandle and Ekman-Larsson).

If the Leafs can continue with their improved play over the past three games, this should be winnable. Expect Bernier in nets and no changes to the lineup. Leafs need to unleash their offensive prowess in this one. Rielly has been looking very dangerous lately.
 
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but for all intents and purposes this is a game the Leafs should and gotta win. I like the Leafs' chances on the road, free from all the pressure of playing at home. Coming off a 3 games winning streak, this can be a momtentum builder for the western swing as well. The Coyotes are 4-6-1 and have a 2.54 GFA but allowing 2.7 goals per game. Needless to say, this is a vulnerable team that we need to take advantage of.
 
Hopefully you'll keep the streak going BL.

As mentioned before, it's rare for this team to put 4-5 good games(heck even less)so i'm trying to be cautious here and not get too excited. Hopefully what we've seen in the past few games is for real and it continues.

Coyotes are pretty weak all over but we shouldn't take them lightly. I'll say 3-1 Leafs.
 
Ekman-Larsson meet the "Russian Missle" (or is it "Finnish Missle", or does Finland have missles?).

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Winnable game, but we can't take them too lightly.

The 'yotes have had their record sabotaged by awful goaltending so far, but either Smith or Dubnyk is capable of playing well in any given game. They have actually been a decent mediocre team 5v5, and OEL-Yandle have given them one of the best PPs in the league so far this year. This is no gimme, especially if their goalie steps up a bit.
 
I remember in their last game one of the commentators mentioned they're very good at one thing and that's faceoffs. Best in the league apparently. Should be interesting to see how Bozie and Naz do in this one.
 
Bozie, last I checked, was at 53.6% and 6th best for FO in the league.

Kadri, OTOH, is worst on the team at 46% ... that is the only 1 area of Kadri's game he's REALLY gotta work on
 
Ok, so I've added a 2nd possession number in now.

It's another zone-adjusted number, because I think that's a minimum context needed to make the stats make sense (zone adjustment means ignoring the first 10 seconds after any faceoff), and it doesn't hurt sample size too much.

I still think zone-adjusted 5v5 CLOSE is the best stat, only problem is that it really cuts the sample size - nearly in half for some players - and this early in the year we need all the sample size we can get.

So in addition to zone-adjusted 5v5 CLOSE (ccf%) i've added zone-adjusted 5v5 TOTAL (cf%). I still think the first number is best all things being equal but the 2nd numbers gives us a much bigger sample size to go off of, so it's probably similarly valuable at this point in the season.



Line 1

C N.Kadri (24): 11gms, 4gls, 5pts, 61.5ccf%, 58.2cf%, 16:28 (82gms, 30gls, 37pts) ---- 46.2fo%
C A.Vermette (32): 11gms, 2gls, 8pts, 44.8ccf%, 48.1cf%, 19:20 (82gms, 15gls, 60pts) ---- 56.5fo%

W P.Kessel (27): 11gms, 6gls, 14pts, 47.6ccf%, 45.8cf%, 18:48 (82gms, 45gls, 104pts)
W S.Doan (38): 11gms, 3gls, 8pts, 46.9ccf%, 49.6cf%, 19:08 (82gms, 22gls, 60pts)

W D.Winnik (29): 11gms, 1gls, 7pts, 61.6ccf%, 55.5cf%, 16:23 (82gms, 8gls, 52pts)
W T.Rieder (21): 1gms, 1gls, 1pts, 50.0ccf%, 56.5cf%, 11:30 (82gms, 82gls, 82pts)

Line 2

C T.Bozak (28): 11gms, 4gls, 10pts, 44.1ccf%, 43.7cf%, 18:58 (82gms, 30gls, 75pts) ---- 53.6fo%
C M.Hanzal (27): 8gms, 2gls, 6pts, 39.7ccf%, 54.1cf%, 16:44 (82gms, 21gls, 62pts) ---- 64.3fo%

W J.Vanryk (25): 11gms, 5gls, 7pts, 47.1ccf%, 44.7cf%, 19:29 (82gms, 37gls, 52pts)
W M.Erat (33): 11gms, 3gls, 5pts, 46.0ccf%, 51.8cf%, 16:14 (82gms, 22gls, 37pts)

W D.Clarkson (30): 11gms, 3gls, 4pts, 50.0ccf%, 50.0cf%, 15:44 (82gms, 22gls, 30pts)
W R.Klinkhammer (28): 10gms, 2gls, 2pts, 44.9ccf%, 50.8cf%, 12:27 (82gms, 16gls, 16pts)

Line 3

C P.Holland (23): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 49.3ccf%, 40.2cf%, 9:59 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts) ---- 48.3fo%
C S.Gagner (25): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 53.4ccf%, 54.0cf%, 16:41 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts) ---- 50.0fo%

W L.Komarov (27): 11gms, 0gls, 7pts, 50.9ccf%, 51.0cf%, 15:28 (82gms, 0gls, 52pts)
W M.Boedker (25): 11gms, 5gls, 8pts, 45.2ccf%, 47.7cf%, 18:09 (82gms, 37gls, 60pts)

W M.Santorelli (29): 11gms, 1gls, 5pts, 51.4ccf%, 50.5cf%, 12:37 (82gms, 8gls, 37pts)
W L.Korpikoski (28): 11gms, 1gls, 2pts, 51.5ccf%, 48.5cf%, 16:03 (82gms, 8gls, 15pts)

Line 4

C S.Carrick (22): 1gms, 0gls, 0pts, 66.7ccf%, 66.7cf%, 4:15 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts) ---- 50.0fo%
C J.Vitale (29): 11gms, 0gls, 2pts, 40.2ccf%, 36.8cf%, 11:36 (82gms, 0gls, 15pts) ---- 45.4fo%

W R.Panik (23): 10gms, 1gls, 1pts, 38.5ccf%, 35.4cf%, 7:27 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)
W B.McMillan (24): 11gms, 0gls, 1pts, 43.3ccf%, 41.5cf%, 10:07 (82gms, 0gls, 8pts)

W C.Ashton (23): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts, 70.0ccf%, 66.7cf%, 5:52 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)
W B.Crombeen (29): 7gms, 1gls, 1pts, 38.9ccf%, 35.1cf%, 7:44 (82gms, 12gls, 12pts)



Pair 1

D D.Phaneuf (29): 11gms, 0gls, 4pts, 54.8ccf%, 53.0cf%, 22:09 (82gms, 0gls, 30pts)
D O.E-Larsson (23): 11gms, 2gls, 8pts, 51.0ccf%, 53.5cf%, 25:57 (82gms, 15gls, 60pts)

D C.Franson (27): 9gms, 1gls, 3pts, 56.4ccf%, 51.3cf%, 19:12 (82gms, 9gls, 27pts)
D Z.Michalek (32): 11gms, 0gls, 1pts, 48.7ccf%, 55.4cf%, 20:22 (82gms, 0gls, 8pts)

Pair 2

D M.Rielly (20): 11gms, 1gls, 4pts, 54.1ccf%, 49.0cf%, 19:00 (82gms, 8gls, 30pts)
D K.Yandle (28): 11gms, 1gls, 10pts, 46.0ccf%, 47.9cf%, 26:08 (82gms, 8gls, 75pts)

D R.Polak (28): 11gms, 1gls, 1pts, 52.8ccf%, 47.8cf%, 20:35 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)
D C.Murphy (21): 11gms, 1gls, 1pts, 48.8ccf%, 48.0cf%, 13:43 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)

Pair 3

D J.Gardiner (24): 9gms, 1gls, 2pts, 48.8ccf%, 50.3cf%, 20:27 (82gms, 9gls, 18pts)
D M.Stone (24): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 41.5ccf%, 42.9cf%, 20:59 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts)

D S.Robidas (37): 10gms, 0gls, 2pts, 46.0ccf%, 46.8cf%, 16:52 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)
D B.Gormley (22): ------



Starting Goalie

G J.Bernier (26): 8gms, .917sv%
G M.Smith (32): 8gms, .873sv%

Backup Goalie

G J.Reimer (26): 5gms, .929sv%
G D.Dubnyk (28): 4gms, .879sv%



Injured / Suspended

W J.Lupul (31): 9gms, 2gls, 3pts, 65.1ccf%, 59.8cf%, 18:09 (82gms, 18gls, 27pts)
W D.Booth (30): -------------
W B.Kozun (24): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts, 32.3ccf%, 36.2cf%, 8:54 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)

W D.Moss (33): 6gms, 0gls, 1pts, 60.0cf%, 11:51 (82gms, 0gls, 14pts)
 
I forget all about Booth, wonder if he''l be this year's Clarkson? It's going to take a while for him to play himself into shape and he hasn't even started.
 
I forget all about Booth, wonder if he''l be this year's Clarkson? It's going to take a while for him to play himself into shape and he hasn't even started.
He may be starting behind the eight ball, in terms of game readiness, as Clarkson did last year. But he at least won't be saddled with any expectations when he gets back. We got him for free via free agency, and paid next-to-nothing to get him when it comes to his cap hit. And a couple of our other "discount" signings (Santorelli & Winnik) are already working out quite well for us, so whether he's just slightly better depth for our fourth line or he rediscovers his scoring touch at all, whatever he does will be a complete bonus.
 
The way Reimer has played lately, I'd much prefer if he started. Regardless, this SHOULD be a "gimme," and our game to lose.
 
Well, you just knew it wouldn't last. Apparently, Bozak is back with Kessel and JVR tonight. Please be wrong twitter people.
 
"Which goalie do we play tonight? Idk, they're both so awesome."
- things I never thought I'd say again 5 years ago
 
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