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The ****ing Season Thread 2018-19

BeLeafer said:
What's remarkable is that he sustains: (a) the defensive numbers, and; (b) keeps the % numbers even despite very little offense. I still don't get why you guys like to ignore against stats, but his xGA looks very solid against tough competition (unlike Pietrangelo and especially Rielly). His value is defensive. A seemingly near perfect complement for Rielly.
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again, i don't like separating for and against stats because imo it's just misleading, because it ignores specific choices on playstyle, both team and individual.

for example, McDonagh dropping from ~62ca/60 and ~29sca/60 with NYR to ~53ca/60 and ~23sca/60 doesn't mean he suddenly got drastically better defensively.
 
zeke said:
again, i don't like separating for and against stats because imo it's just misleading, because it ignores specific choices on playstyle, both team and individual.
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Perplexing. I see it exactly the reverse. Posting % stats is fine but it buries the underlying components -- for and against. Is there no difference in your mind between Player A who has a 50% xG with 50.0 xGF and 50.0 xGA and Player B who has 50% xG with 65.0 xGF and 35.0 xGA?

Looking at the components that make up the % stat is the very opposite of misleading.
 
From BoBo

TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie confirmed Wednesday that the Leafs’ first-round pick this year is in play ahead of the trade deadline, but suggested one or even two forwards could be moved for the right addition to the blueline.


“If you’re gonna get a good defenceman and they obviously want to get a good defenceman, you’ve got to give up something of value,” McKenzie told First Up on TSN Radio 1050 Toronto. “And not only would the first-round pick be in play, but I’ve been saying for quite some time now – take your pick, but one of Andreas Johnsson or Kasperi Kapanen will be gone too in the most likely scenario. It obviously depends on which defenceman they end up with and how much term is left, and what the guy’s age is, and what his value is, but it’s quite conceivable that both of those pieces could be departing for the right guy.”


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zeke said:
still concerning to me how few options we have now when we want to shake up the lines.

maybe if a kid like moore was up it would be more interesting.

but right now, i'd be real scared to trade off guys like Kappy or johnsson.
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Yeah, it's no longer the case that we're overloaded with quality winger depth. Moore is really the only guy I'd be confident plugging in there.

Grundstrom's only 20, and not dominating the AHL to the point where I think he's not better off staying with the Marlies. And while Bracco's has been dominating the AHL lately, I wouldn't be in a rush to call him up either. He's enough of a project that I'd like to see him sustain his current pace over a full AHL season before he gets the call.

So I'd agree that we don't really have the luxury of using Johnsson or Kapanen as trade chips, unless another winger came back in the deal (like Tampa having JT Miller included in the McDonagh deal).


Artnes said:
Dubas may shock us all and bring Timmy up as a shake up
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I'd be shocked if that move happened on its own. Because I can't see Babcock sitting Hainsey, Zaitsev or Ozhiganov to plug Timmy into the lineup.

I think a Liljegren call-up would have to be accompanied by one of those three guys getting shipped out.
 
And knowing dubas.. it wouldn't surprise me if Kapanen and a 1st would be a reasonable price for the type of player he will target. He's not the type that goes for the small fish.

Lots of trade chips really. Bracco, grundstrom, Moore, johnsson, Kapanen, brown.

They can afford to trade a couple without having much of a drop off from whoever replaces them. Go for the big fish, doobie.
 
Artnes said:
From BoBo

TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie confirmed Wednesday that the Leafs’ first-round pick this year is in play ahead of the trade deadline, but suggested one or even two forwards could be moved for the right addition to the blueline.


“If you’re gonna get a good defenceman and they obviously want to get a good defenceman, you’ve got to give up something of value,” McKenzie told First Up on TSN Radio 1050 Toronto. “And not only would the first-round pick be in play, but I’ve been saying for quite some time now – take your pick, but one of Andreas Johnsson or Kasperi Kapanen will be gone too in the most likely scenario. It obviously depends on which defenceman they end up with and how much term is left, and what the guy’s age is, and what his value is, but it’s quite conceivable that both of those pieces could be departing for the right guy.”
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The "right guy" would definitely have to be a legit top-pairing defenseman with term remaining.

I don't think you trade either of those pieces, or even your 1st round pick away for a straight-up rental, or for a "Top-4 defenseman".
 
BeLeafer said:
Perplexing. I see it exactly the reverse. Posting % stats is fine but it buries the underlying components -- for and against. Is there no difference in your mind between Player A who has a 50% xG with 50.0 xGF and 50.0 xGA and Player B who has 50% xG with 65.0 xGF and 35.0 xGA?

Looking at the components that make up the % stat is the very opposite of misleading.
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I disagree...absolutely.

For me using one without the other completely detextualizes the number and makes it pretty much meaningless. Both at the Team and the Individual level, conscious decisions about playstyle (i.e. aggressively offensive vs. cautiiously defensive). Sure a player and team can go all out attack attack and inflate his or their offensive totals, or a team and player can trap all night and deflate their defensive totals....and comparing players on the team just by one or the other stat will just end up being a misleading comparison. If a player's sca/60 improves simply because he stops attacking offensively, that's not a skill change, that's just a tactical change, and the overall % will still paint a better picture of that player's actual performance or skill level.

at the very least, separating the for and against stats absolutely HAS to be confined to just using the relative to team stats. at the very least.
 
zeke said:
I disagree...absolutely.

For me using one without the other completely detextualizes the number and makes it pretty much meaningless. Both at the Team and the Individual level, conscious decisions about playstyle (i.e. aggressively offensive vs. cautiiously defensive). Sure a player and team can go all out attack attack and inflate his or their offensive totals, or a team and player can trap all night and deflate their defensive totals....and comparing players on the team just by one or the other stat will just end up being a misleading comparison. If a player's sca/60 improves simply because he stops attacking offensively, that's not a skill change, that's just a tactical change, and the overall % will still paint a better picture of that player's actual performance or skill level.

at the very least, separating the for and against stats absolutely HAS to be confined to just using the relative to team stats. at the very least.
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Who said anything about only using one stat?
 
ExceptionallyDumb said:
And knowing dubas.. it wouldn't surprise me if Kapanen and a 1st would be a reasonable price for the type of player he will target. He's not the type that goes for the small fish.

Lots of trade chips really. Bracco, grundstrom, Moore, johnsson, Kapanen, brown.

They can afford to trade a couple without having much of a drop off from whoever replaces them. Go for the big fish, doobie.
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I don't see Dubas moving Kapanen. He made the trade for him, he's showing amazing potential and brings something this team really needs in the forward lines -- a skilled guy who is good in all zones and is physically tough. No way he moves Kappy.

The others though I'm sure are in play.
 
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