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The ****ing Season Thread 2018-19

MindzEye said:
I think the problem in perception is that yeah, compared to the group you just noted, it is deficient. Issue there though, is that group you noted is one of the most ridiculous prospect groups any team has had in the last 20 years.
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annnnd they're going to be on our roster for the next 5+ years (most if not all of them)

so having just graduated an absurd group of prospects so quickly, and to still have the ones we do, well I'll take it.
 
Gardiner is very good, and definitely worth the money. It it worth it to the Leafs though? A team with limited cap space and Dermott/Sandin/Liljegren that can likely replace the loss for a lot less? Probably not. Lots of unknown there, so letting him go is a risk. Not sure that it is a big one though.

Even if you could sign him to a bargain deal I am not sure it makes sense in the long run. He'll never be as big of a bargain as Dermott/Sandin/Lily over the next couple of years and at some point you have to pay those guys, at which point Gardiner becomes a roadblock. You have to be 100% certain that you can move a 31-32 year old Gardiner with a lot of years left on a deal. Thats probably a bigger risk than not being able to replace him from within.
 
Wayward DP said:
Jake is only worth keeping on a below market value contract. We simply cannot afford to pay him what he could land as a UFA. I think I would be okay going as high as 6 x $6 m, but even that is longer and higher than I think would be ideal. Something like 4 yrs / $20+ m total is my ideal, but that may be a tough sell for Jake. Think it's going to depend on how badly he wants to stay, and how stupid a contract some other team will offer him.
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Jake is "worth" 6 x 6, but not to us imo. Even with the increased cap, I want no part of trying to sign Rielly, Kapanen, Johnsson, Dermott, Sandin, Lilly and replace Freddy with 17 million going to JT and Jake as 32-34 yr olds. The odds that they're as good by then as they are now is just not close to good. Jake is one where you just have to pull the bandaid, despite him being a very good and yes under appreciated defender.
 
It really is the hardest part about managing in the cap era. You simply have to choose the right risks to take with young players, and lock them up for as much of their mid and late 20's as you can for the right price, and avoid almost all risk with long term contracts for non elite players in their late 20's/early 30's. So as good as the Kadri's, and Gardiner's of the world are, if you're put into a position where you absolutely need to sign them into their mid 30's, you've ****ed up and you're really likely to regret it.

If you can't get your good young kids signed to long term team friendly deals (Rielly, and Kadri for example), you have to play the game with them of exploiting their RFA years and then look to move them when they're getting close to UFA. Depth guys in the Brown and Hyman vein are fine for a few years when they're cheap, but as soon as they get expensive (for them, I'd suggest anything more than they currently make is expensive) they have to go to. The single most important organizational skillset in the cap era is draft and develop. If you aren't churning out players of every stripe, on a regular basis, you're going to be forced into choosing between letting your team get worse, or making a bad cap decision and most managers are going to make a long term bad decision out of short term self interest when push comes to shove.
 
I'll say this - playing for the leafs devalues dmen's rep so badly that spending money on our own guys is likely the value play.

Like, there is no way Jake is getting the Shattenkirk hype from a couple years back, even though he's way better.
 
I just have a hunch we're going to resign him. he seems to love it here. Dubas seems to love him. my gut tells me it is happening. but my gut has been wrong before.
 
Wayward DP said:
I just have a hunch we're going to resign him. he seems to love it here. Dubas seems to love him. my gut tells me it is happening. but my gut has been wrong before.
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Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than in your head?

[video=youtube;Z1HOUTbiTgw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1HOUTbiTgw[/video]
 
It's purely cap. The smart play is to let him go, just as it was with JVR. They're good players but, just as we had guys like Johnsson and Kapanen ready to move up, we've got Sandin/Liljegren/Dermott in the same situation. I expect all 3 to be on the team next season.
 
Volcanologist said:
It's purely cap. The smart play is to let him go, just as it was with JVR. They're good players but, just as we had guys like Johnsson and Kapanen ready to move up, we've got Sandin/Liljegren/Dermott in the same situation. I expect all 3 to be on the team next season.
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Yeah, next year's roster is going to look a lot different than this year's imo. A bunch younger, but especially the blueline.

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Goat-Brown

With the distinct possibility that one of Brown or Marleau are traded.

Rielly-XXXXX
Dermott-XXXXX
Sandin-Lilly
Ozzy

Hainsey is unlikely to be back, Zaitsev a fantastic candidate for being traded. I'd be surprised if their replacements are purely internal.
 
Dubas will work hard to move Z before the deadline. Might need a miracle to pull it off but as Funke has proven again there are still dumb GMs out there
 
Artnes said:
Dubas will work hard to move Z before the deadline. Might need a miracle to pull it off but as Funke has proven again there are still dumb GMs out there
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From what I was told, Zaitsev is more likely to be moved in the off season. Dubas is very keen on re-signing Gardiner
 
Volcanologist said:
It's purely cap. The smart play is to let him go, just as it was with JVR. They're good players but, just as we had guys like Johnsson and Kapanen ready to move up, we've got Sandin/Liljegren/Dermott in the same situation. I expect all 3 to be on the team next season.
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not the same as JVR though.

JVR was a sheltered 3rd liner. Jake is playing like a quality top pair dman.

and the thing is Jake might be cheaper too.
 
Zaitsev or Marl;eau have to be moved to even think about keeping Jake. We are fine with all our RFAs contrary to popular belief, but Jake's cap hit is an issue.
 
Signing anyone and that is what is killing the NHL, is the ultimate now. Dubas is killing the Leafs and so is Babcock.

This will be a last place team within three years.

The curse moves on. I coached Frank Mahovlich, he was the weirdest guy I have ever met. Seemed to be under a curse.

This is a cursed,. cursed team.
 
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