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GDT #30 DEC 8, HNIC: TOR @ BOS

Love the guy but let's see how long he can maintain his 18.6sh% and 106 PDO before we give him a promise ring

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Some work from @billius27 showing APs numbers from last year being mostly paired with Edmunson and this year with Dunn

Pietrangelo's CF% with Vince Dunn is 46.79%, 53.28% without according to @NatStatTrick
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They are both upgrades and on good term so I'm ok with either

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Parayko would likely cost us way more for a much lesser Dman....because of his age/contract.

Way rather target AP.
 
Montana said:
Parayko would likely cost us way more for a much lesser Dman....because of his age/contract.

Way rather target AP.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm not convinced that we could have gotten McD without Lilly/Kapanen like Zeke is, but that's the type of move I'd like to replicate. Parayko would be a pure, pure hockey trade with the expected cost of a pure hockey trade. AP being moved can easily have all that emotional bullshit attached to it. Culture change, long marriage needing a breakup (like Kessel here), etc, etc. All of those non hockey reasons that tend to see star level players traded for way less than their value on the ice would appear to potentially apply with AP right now.

Gimme gimme.
 
Artnes said:
Love the guy but let's see how long he can maintain his 18.6sh% and 106 PDO before we give him a promise ring

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Click to expand...

eh.

OISH% ES

Marner 13.8 (3.39p/60, 3.13p1/60)
Matthews 13.8 (4.44p/60, 3.46p1/60)
Tavares 12.7 (2.98p/60, 2.59p1/60)
Kapanen 11.7 (2.86p/60, 2.29p1/60)
Hyman 11.5 (1.43p/60, 0.72p1/60)
Johnsson 10.7 (2.16p/60, 1.68p1/60)

kappy's hardly the only shooting luck beneficiary. and that's not even really that high an oish% in this year's nhl.

and kappy doesn't have to keep up anywhere near that kind of p/60 to be much more than a secondary producer.
 
Montana said:
Parayko would likely cost us way more for a much lesser Dman....because of his age/contract.

Way rather target AP.
Click to expand...

yep. parayko is the overrated one that has got the benefit of pietro taking all the tough matchups.

he's a solid dman, but not the stud his rep and cost probably is.
 
The other thing is, at this stage, I'm a lot more interested in acquiring a player who is a top-pairing defenseman, rather than a guy who might become one some day.

So Pietrangelo > Parayko, in terms of this team's needs.
 
Artnes said:
Some work from @billius27 showing APs numbers from last year being mostly paired with Edmunson and this year with Dunn

Pietrangelo's CF% with Vince Dunn is 46.79%, 53.28% without according to @NatStatTrick
Click to expand...

Interesting. The big impact seems to be QoT. QoC virtually the same across these comparisons. zekie boy?
 
BeLeafer said:
Interesting. The big impact seems to be QoT. QoC virtually the same across these comparisons. zekie boy?
Click to expand...

QOT has a big impact. But, again, it's largely accounted for in the relative stats already. Which is why Pietro's relative stats are actually better than usual this year, despite the topline numbers looking superficially worse.
 
Leafs v Boston, Last 2yrs, Regular Season and Playoffs:

14gms Total: 7-7
6gms Home: 5-1
8gms Away: 2-6
 
zeke said:
QOT has a big impact. But, again, it's largely accounted for in the relative stats already. Which is why Pietro's relative stats are actually better than usual this year, despite the topline numbers looking superficially worse.
Click to expand...

That's the first time I've seen you say this about QoT. I thought you were of the opinion that it's largely irrelevant?
 
Burtch seems to be in favor of Parayko

Is RAPM used in hockey?

Just my 2 cents on the Pietrangelo/Parayko rumors and the Leafs making a trade.

I would only look at Parayko:

He is younger. (25 vs 28)
He is cheaper. ($5.5x3 vs $6.5x2)
He is far better defensively. (5v5 RelT xGA60 of -0.57 vs +0.41 or EV xGA RAPM -0.215 vs +0.043)


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BeLeafer said:
That's the first time I've seen you say this about QoT. I thought you were of the opinion that it's largely irrelevant?
Click to expand...

not at all. it's obviously hugely important who you play with.

it's just that I think that the team-relative stats account for it pretty well already (though far from perfectly).

I also don't like any argument which says that QoT > QoC for more basic reasons - i.e. because I don't think we have any measures that are equally effective at measuring both effects. For example, using TOI for QoC makes mucho sense to me because you're getting a proxy for opposition player quality based on the ice time decisions of 30 other coaches with 30 other rosters, while using TOI for QoT is just one coach's decision based on one roster (which leads to things like Hyman being considered a top quality level linemate, just because we happen to have a coach who does things dramatically differently than average). I would tend to think QoT is better measured by the possesion stats themselves, as the team effects are minimized - and that's sort of what the relative stats do already - i.e. they compare how much better or worse the team does with a certain player on the ice.
 
Dont think we're too stressed about him missing a few weeks of regular season games......kinda got our eye on that whole playoffs/cup thing.
 
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