• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Leafs - Bolts - (and maybe Habs)

zeke

Well-known member
I might add the habs to this at some point for fun, but really I wanted to start tracking how we compared to the Bolts.

48016033_10161175441295029_1235473941426864128_n.jpg


Obviously the Bolts are doing much better possession wise, which makes it tough for us to decide how to balance the pos% with the relative and decide what they say about each player. The individuals look similar relative to team, so we have to decided how much of the team possession advantage they have is due to player talent vs. coaching systems.

When we look at team stats, though, we have to really consider the massive special teams differential - The bolts are 1st in PP opportunities and 6th in times shorthanded, while the leafs are last in both.

All stats adjusted for score effects:

Even Strength (not including empty net situations):

TBL: 3.12gf/60 (#1), 2.47xgf/60 (#9), 54.4cf/60 (#4) --- 2.39ga/60 (#17), 1.86xga/60 (#1), 44.2ca/60 (#1)
TOR: 2.69gf/60 (#7), 2.48xgf/60 (#8), 53.3cf/60 (#6) --- 2.10ga/60 (#5), 2.52xga/60 (#27), 52.4ca/60 (#28)

Offensively, the Bolts seem to be a lucky, but they also seem to be unlucky defensively (or just have bad goaltending) as the stats suggest they're the best defensive team in the league so far. The Leafs are full marks for their offense, but are getting bailed out defensively by their goalies.

Power Play --- Penalty Kill

TBL: 3.72gf/60 (#2), 2.07xgf/60 (#23), 48.3cf/60 (#16) ---- 1.89ga/60 (#5), 2.17xga/60 (#11), 53.2ca/60 (#26)
TOR: 3.29gf/60 (#6), 3.73xgf/60 (#1), 56.9cf/60 (#2) ---- 2.48ga/60 (#12), 2.47xga/60 (#19), 51.7ca/60 (#21)

The Bolts seemt to be lucky on their PPs, while the Leafs are a bit unlucky. Both are getting lucky/good goaltending on the PK.
 
Last edited:
Tampa is simply better than us. Yzerman has done a great job there.

I have no explanation for why Tampa gets the most PP opportunities and we get the least though. Both teams are speed/skill based.
 
Tampa is simply better than us. Yzerman has done a great job there.

I have no explanation for why Tampa gets the most PP opportunities and we get the least though. Both teams are speed/skill based.

One team has the puck the whole game. The other team doesn't. Leafs are mostly a rush, one and done team. They don't often sustain offensive zone time and that's typically when penalties are drawn.
 
had to edit all the team stats for score adjustments. made a huge difference in the raw numbers, but not a major one in the analysis.
 
Tampa is most definitely the team to beat. The Habs look awesome I have to say. Domi/Drouin has worked wonders for them. A healthy Weber and Price being Price likely gets them a first round match....with us potentially? Count me in
 
He's a lock to be next Detroit GM imo.
Some say Seattle, but that's just too far.
Tampa has to do it this year. 3 out of the last 4 E.C finals they've lost
 
He's a lock to be next Detroit GM imo.
Some say Seattle, but that's just too far.
Tampa has to do it this year. 3 out of the last 4 E.C finals they've lost

He takes over Holland after next year . As good as they are they keep handing contracts like candy while they still have to pay Point and their stud gaolie .

Shocked they paid both Miller and Gourde . They have a way to make things work and may entice to move a few bodies to waive their trade clauses and give up picks and prospects .

I see no real advantage to them advancing to the semis over the Leafs
 
true.

where do you see the advantage?

Firstly Hedman & McD vs. what we have now. their top 4 has a clear edge. As you descend the lineup, I also start liking their forwards more than ours. At the top we're one of the few teams that can go toe to toe with them though. Might be enough in a 7 game stretch, might not be.

It's not like we can't beat them or anything. we're good too. I like their 12F 6D better than ours top to bottom, that's all.

also in a playoff series our generally weaker defensive play and PP minute disadvantage would seem to loom as difference-makers against a high power opponent like this. They'd be highly likely to get more PPs than we do, and we're not a good penalty killing team to boot. double whammy.

having said that, I think their group is further along and, to be honest, is considered a playoff disappointment given their talent. If we could get them down, maybe they crack mentally.
 
is there something about guys like killorn or cirelli I'm missing?

How about a P/60 in the range of 2 for Killorn over the past few seasons? Yeah, he only gets middle 6 matchups, but he buries his opposition in them.

Basically, he gets Connor Brown's usage buuuuut:

Killorn: 1.91 P1/60, 6.03 cfREL, 9.65 relxGF%
Brown: .84 P1/60 , -2.6 cfREL, -5.49 relXGF%

He's producing like a top line winger, on their 3rd line. Huge advantage over what we run out there as a depth forward.
 
Back
Top