I didn’t read the methodology, but the probabilities likely account for current standings, remaining schedule (including #of games left, quality of opponents, home/road games) and quality of team, based on current record (which also accounts for GF/GA). So the Habs’ quality of team is based on current standings, which includes Weber being injured for half the games. Assuming that the team is much better with Weber playing all games, then the Habs should actually have a better chance than 74% or whatever the current chance, provided key players stay relatively healthy. What I don’t think the simulations account for is the probability that something disastrous like Price getting injured happens that tanks the season (like in 2015-16).
Odds of Habs making the playoffs
- Thread starter Rocket
- Start date
I didn’t read the methodology, but the probabilities likely account for current standings, remaining schedule (including #of games left, quality of opponents, home/road games) and quality of team, based on current record (which also accounts for GF/GA). So the Habs’ quality of team is based on current standings, which includes Weber being injured for half the games. Assuming that the team is much better with Weber playing all games, then the Habs should actually have a better chance than 74% or whatever the current chance, provided key players stay relatively healthy. What I don’t think the simulations account for is the probability that something disastrous like Price getting injured happens that tanks the season (like in 2015-16).
Sal_Butera
Well-known member
If Bruins & Leafs don’t create separation in the standings using their games in hand in the next 2-weeks, it could be much higher than the final playoff wild card spot, just sayin...
Demon Blond
Active member
If I recall teams like the canes and isles have a habit of having great second half seasons...that doesn’t show up in the algorithms but has an impact.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
past performances are not a guarantee of future results
worm
Well-known member
habs need a PP though
GrandWazoo
Well-known member
We need at least 40 points in our next 34 games.
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
20-14 is very doable.
Altair
Well-known member
The habs would be solidly second in the division right now if they had a PP.
I will start a magic number thread shortly
Rolex
Canadiens Moderator
I love it when we back into the playoffs......top teams overlook us....
GrandWazoo
Well-known member
Or 17-11-6
Altair
Well-known member
Win tonight and that doesn't matter.
Habs53
Active member
True
CaptainBolduke
Active member
No they don't.
There is a reason why only 1 or 2 8th seeds have won the Stanley Cup in this history of the NHL. This whole "anything can happen in the playoffs" is actually complete bullshit when you look at history and facts.
Outlier's aren't the norm.
Demon Blond
Active member
Nothing beats the NFL in that category...
CaptainBolduke
Active member
I've always wondered why the message of "anything can happen in the playoffs" resonates with fans.