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Thread: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

  1. #21
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainBolduke View Post
    Again, you don't need to guess. These are calculated for us with algorithms and facts.
    I didn’t read the methodology, but the probabilities likely account for current standings, remaining schedule (including #of games left, quality of opponents, home/road games) and quality of team, based on current record (which also accounts for GF/GA). So the Habs’ quality of team is based on current standings, which includes Weber being injured for half the games. Assuming that the team is much better with Weber playing all games, then the Habs should actually have a better chance than 74% or whatever the current chance, provided key players stay relatively healthy. What I don’t think the simulations account for is the probability that something disastrous like Price getting injured happens that tanks the season (like in 2015-16).

  2. #22
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    These bubble teams cant have lets say a 5-7 game slump or they will out .

    These potential 3 point games make catch up very difficult

  3. #23
    Legend Habs53's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    It is between us and the Sabres now pretty much for the final spot. A game or two now over 500 for the rest of the way puts us in.

  4. #24
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    I think Carolina passes the Sabres. Advance stats show Montreal and Carolina in the top 5 in Corsi and expected scoring and Buffalo in the bottom 10.
    #FireJulien#FireMarcBergevin Burn Geoff Molson in effigy! #worstmanagementstaffever

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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habs53 View Post
    It is between us and the Sabres now pretty much for the final spot.
    If Bruins & Leafs don’t create separation in the standings using their games in hand in the next 2-weeks, it could be much higher than the final playoff wild card spot, just sayin...


    “We haven’t reached the ultimate, of where you walk into the building and you can sort of smell victory. But we’re a step closer to that this year than we were last year.”


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  6. #26
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    I think Carolina passes the Sabres. Advance stats show Montreal and Carolina in the top 5 in Corsi and expected scoring and Buffalo in the bottom 10.
    If I recall teams like the canes and isles have a habit of having great second half seasons...that doesn’t show up in the algorithms but has an impact.

  7. #27
    The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins. CH1's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon Blond View Post
    If I recall teams like the canes and isles have a habit of having great second half seasons...that doesn’t show up in the algorithms but has an impact.
    past performances are not a guarantee of future results
    Some GMs get you to the playoffs and some GMs get you through the playoffs.

  8. #28
    Legend worm's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    I think Carolina passes the Sabres. Advance stats show Montreal and Carolina in the top 5 in Corsi and expected scoring and Buffalo in the bottom 10.
    habs need a PP though
    ...

  9. #29
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habs53 View Post
    It is between us and the Sabres now pretty much for the final spot. A game or two now over 500 for the rest of the way puts us in.
    We need at least 40 points in our next 34 games.

  10. #30
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by GrandWazoo View Post
    We need at least 40 points in our next 34 games.
    20-14 is very doable.
    #FireJulien#FireMarcBergevin Burn Geoff Molson in effigy! #worstmanagementstaffever

  11. #31
    Legend Altair's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by worm View Post
    habs need a PP though
    The habs would be solidly second in the division right now if they had a PP.

  12. #32
    Canadiens & 'News & Views' Moderator TheCountofMonteCristo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by GrandWazoo View Post
    We need at least 40 points in our next 34 games.
    I will start a magic number thread shortly
    "The next game is the test unless we win" CanadienFan

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  13. #33
    Canadiens Moderator Rolex's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCountofMonteCristo View Post
    I will start a magic number thread shortly
    I love it when we back into the playoffs......top teams overlook us....
    "Love one another as I have loved you"... Jesus-Christ our Holy Lord and Savior Forever Amen and Alleluia !!!

  14. #34
    Legend GrandWazoo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    20-14 is very doable.
    Or 17-11-6

  15. #35
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Not a good night last night. Even Toronto beat Tamba.

  16. #36
    Legend Altair's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Habs53 View Post
    Not a good night last night. Even Toronto beat Tamba.
    Win tonight and that doesn't matter.

  17. #37
    Legend Habs53's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Altair View Post
    Win tonight and that doesn't matter.
    True

  18. #38
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolex View Post
    I love it when we back into the playoffs......top teams overlook us....
    No they don't.

    There is a reason why only 1 or 2 8th seeds have won the Stanley Cup in this history of the NHL. This whole "anything can happen in the playoffs" is actually complete bullshit when you look at history and facts.

    Outlier's aren't the norm.

  19. #39
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainBolduke View Post
    No they don't.

    There is a reason why only 1 or 2 8th seeds have won the Stanley Cup in this history of the NHL. This whole "anything can happen in the playoffs" is actually complete bullshit when you look at history and facts.

    Outlier's aren't the norm.
    Nothing beats the NFL in that category...

  20. #40
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    Default Re: Odds of Habs making the playoffs

    I've always wondered why the message of "anything can happen in the playoffs" resonates with fans.

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