Round 1: Leafs @ Bruins

Line 1

Tavares/Marner/Hyman: 758:34, 53.6ozs%, 54.0cf%, 56.5scf%, 57.1hdcf%, 60.3gf%, 1.033pdo
Bergeron/Pastrnak/Rat: 434:58, 61.9ozs%, 57.1cf%, 57.5scf%, 55.8hdcf%, 54.5gf%, .996pdo

5v5 the leafs top line has been every bit as good as the bruins top line. maybe even better considering the zone deployment.

Line 2

Auston/Willy/Johnsson: 160:48, 53.4ozs%, 54.3cf%, 58.9scf%, 59.8hdcf%, 48.9gf%, 0.977pdo
Krejci/Debrusk/XXXX: 667:49, 65.6ozs%, 56.7cf%, 53.3scf%, 50.6hdcf%, 59.0gf%, 1.009pdo

This hasn't been an advantage for the leafs so far in terms of goals, but really should be going forward. The Leafs line has unsurprisngly been much more dominant, despite not being nearly as sheltered. Bruins probably want Johansson on the other wing if healthy.

Line 3

Kadri/Kapanen/Marleau: 264:58, 48.2ozs%, 55.7cf%, 56.8scf%, 55.7hdcf%, 56.8gf%, 1.009pdo
Coyle/Heinen/XXXXX: 49:39, 26.7ozs%, 44.0cf%, 45.8scf%. 32.6hdcf%, 52.6gf%, 1.003pdo

this has and should be an advantage for the leafs going forward. I'm not sure what the bruins were even thinking getting Coyle to play C, tbh.

Line 4

Ennis/Goat/Moore: 46:06, 30.4ozs%, 48.5cf%, 72.3scf%, 60.3hdcf%, 79.4gf%, 1.131pdo
Ennis/Goat/Brown: 13:45, 00.0ozs%, 59.4cf%, 65.3scf%, 70.3hdcf%, 52.8gf%, .955pdo
Moore/Goat/Brown: 17:40, 22.2ozs%, 35.0cf%, 32.2scf%, 36.6hdcf%, 50.0gf%, 1.000pdo

Kuraly/Acciari/Wagner: 401:55, 32.2ozs%, 52.7cf%, 55.8scf%, 55.6hdcf%, 37.6gf%, .957

bruins have a legit established very good 4th line.....except that Kuraly is injured, and probably not back for the first round, which puts this line in flux just like ours.

Acciari/Nordstrom/Backes: 69:48, 34.5ozs%, 57.2cf%, 60.3scf%, 66.2hdcf%, 62.1gf%, 1.018
Acciar/Wagner/Nordstrom: 53:10, 26.2ozs%, 37.2cf%, 31.9scf%, 29.7scf%, 39.1gf%, .981pdo

probably see them go with that first option there, with Wagner bumped up to the 3rd line.


Overall, the leafs seem to have a fairly significant advantage up front.


Pair 1

Rielly/Hainsey: 1003:10, 50.9ozs%, 50.3cf%, 50.8scf%, 49.9hdcf%, 59.2gf%, 1.039pdo
McAvoy/Chara: 533:17, 50.9ozs%, 56.2cf%, 55.2scf%, 54.7hdcf%, 55.3gf%, .990pdo

The leafs pair has been luckier, but the Bruins pair is obviously more dominant.

Pair 2

Muzzin/Zaits: 270:19, 36.8ozs%, 50.2cf%, 52.7scf%, 51.5hdcf%, 47.2gf%, .997pdo
Krug/Carlo: 437:58, 64.8ozs%, 56.2cf%, 57.1scf%, 54.6hdcf%, 57.2gf%, 1.009pdo

drastically different usage, but still, the bruins pair much more dominant.

Pair 3

Jake/Travis: 107:25, 79.3ozs%, 60.9cf%, 67.0scf%, 72.2hdcf%, 90.1gf%, 1.108pdo
Grz/Miller: 322:43, 43.0ozs%, 51.8cf%, 44.3scf%, 49.0hdcf%, 61.1gf%, 1.014pdo

again drastically different usage, but the Leafs pair is much more dominant.

so our coach is deciding to make the 3rd pair our advantage, and concede the advantage on the top-2 pairs.

I would much prefer we do this instead:

Pair 1

Rielly/Muzzin: 127:46, 58.6ozs%, 56.5cf%, 55.4scf%, 59.8hdcf%, 65.1gf%, 1.052pdo
McAvoy/Chara: 533:17, 50.9ozs%, 56.2cf%, 55.2scf%, 54.7hdcf%, 55.3gf%, .990pdo

Pair 2

Jake/Travis: 107:25, 79.3ozs%, 60.9cf%, 67.0scf%, 72.2hdcf%, 90.1gf%, 1.108pdo
Krug/Carlo: 437:58, 64.8ozs%, 56.2cf%, 57.1scf%, 54.6hdcf%, 57.2gf%, 1.009pdo

Pair 3

Ron/Zaits: 87:36, 20.4ozs%, 38.8cf%, 37.5scf%, 41.3hdcf%, 30.7gf%, .976pdo
Grz/Miller: 322:43, 43.0ozs%, 51.8cf%, 44.3scf%, 49.0hdcf%, 61.1gf%, 1.014pdo


Suddenly the Bruins' advantage on defense literally dissappears if we just deploy our dmen normally - i.e. play our top-4 dmen as top-4 dmen.

even the Bruins seeming advantage on the 3rd pair is probably not real, as Ron/zaits' numbers would likely go up significantly in similarly sheltered 3rd pair usage.

No doubt that line-by-line, and defense pairing-by-defense pairing, the Leafs match up well with the Bruins.

In the end, though, the series is probably going to come down to which of Rask or Freddie sucks the least.

And special teams imo.

Need Freddy to outplay Rask and the 2nd/3rd lines to dominate their easier match ups. The Bruins can't match our depth up front. Have to take advantage of that. This is exactly where our depth down the middle provides the most value.

yeah I thought about analyzing the goaltending but....it's a crapshoot, both ways.

LeafGm said:

No doubt that line-by-line, and defense pairing-by-defense pairing, the Leafs match up well with the Bruins.

In the end, though, the series is probably going to come down to which of Rask or Freddie sucks the least.

Click to expand...

Both of them are sucking ass coming into April with Rask taking a slight lead

March schedule

Rask - 7gp .897sv%
Andersen - 11gp .874%

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LeafGm said:

No doubt that line-by-line, and defense pairing-by-defense pairing, the Leafs match up well with the Bruins.

Click to expand...

well, also by most every team metric, too.

TOR #5pts%, #3row, #4gdiff -- 5v5adj: #9cf%, #7scf%, #9hdcf%, #2gf% ----- #8pp, #13pk
BOS #2pts%, #3row, #3gdiff -- 5v5adj: #6cf%, #10scf%, #13hdcf%, #8gf% -- #3pp, #11pk

Artnes said:

Both of them are sucking ass coming into April with Rask taking a slight lead

March schedule

Rask - 7gp .897sv%
Andersen - 11gp .874%

Click to expand...

Yeah, nice to see that "playoff Rask" has arrived right on schedule too, at least. That should hopefully even things out a bit.

Though I suppose if Rask sucks too badly the Bruins could always turn to Halak. Whereas the Leafs don't have a safety net behind Freddie.

they might go with Halak to start the series, tbh.

Interesting to hear the noise about the "playoffs being a different beast" than the regular season.

last year the bruins had a bigger regular season advantage over us, and we still took them to the 3rd period of game7.

last year regular season:

BOS: #4pts%, #3row, #3gdiff, #9sv% --- 5v5 adj: #2cf%, #1scf%, #7hdcf%, #5gf% ---- #4pp, #3pk
TOR: #7pts%, #9row, #6gdiff, #5sv% --- 5v5 adj: #14cf%, #6scf%, #10hdcf%, #4gf% - #2pp, #11pk

The Bruins had a much bigger regular season advantage over the leafs last year than they do this year. Last year Boston was legit elite across the board, while toronto was a clear cut below the elite teams. This year they're both neck and neck elite teams.

If anything, the leafs stepped UP in the playoffs last year - they almost upset a significantly better regular season team, who needed a crazy last period comeback to pull out the series.

Meanwhile, Boston pretty much choked in the playoffs last year - they scraped by a lesser opponent in the first round by the hairs of their chinnychinchins, and then got demolished by a similar quality regular season opponent in round 2.

@draglikepull

Bad news: The past 10 games are the worst Frederik Andersen has had since he joined the Leafs.

Good news: Andersen's downward swings have tended to be short and followed by rapid, significant improvement. https://t.co/ynFLTFzJ8O

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hmm apparently Cassidy broke up his first line last night midgame.

dropped pastrnak to the krejci line, and rotated other guys in the 1st line opening.

i'd almost say that reeks of a bit of fear, trying to match up with the leafs' two 1st lines.

zeke said:

Interesting to hear the noise about the "playoffs being a different beast" than the regular season.

last year the bruins had a bigger regular season advantage over us, and we still took them to the 3rd period of game7.

last year regular season:

BOS: #4pts%, #3row, #3gdiff, #9sv% --- 5v5 adj: #2cf%, #1scf%, #7hdcf%, #5gf% ---- #4pp, #3pk
TOR: #7pts%, #9row, #6gdiff, #5sv% --- 5v5 adj: #14cf%, #6scf%, #10hdcf%, #4gf% - #2pp, #11pk

The Bruins had a much bigger regular season advantage over the leafs last year than they do this year. Last year Boston was legit elite across the board, while toronto was a clear cut below the elite teams. This year they're both neck and neck elite teams.

If anything, the leafs stepped UP in the playoffs last year - they almost upset a significantly better regular season team, who needed a crazy last period comeback to pull out the series.

Meanwhile, Boston pretty much choked in the playoffs last year - they scraped by a lesser opponent in the first round by the hairs of their chinnychinchins, and then got demolished by a similar quality regular season opponent in round 2.

Click to expand...

Been trying to say this. The leafs have stepped it up in the playoffs in the past two years. No reason to believe this year will be any different.

I feel like there is enormous pressure on Matthews and Nylander in particular to redeem last year's result. Lose this series and it's going to be "look how much these guys got paid and they can't even win 1 round, haha stupid Leafs and Dubas" for the next 12 months. Their game is going to be under a microscope.

zeke said:

hmm apparently Cassidy broke up his first line last night midgame.

dropped pastrnak to the krejci line, and rotated other guys in the 1st line opening.

i'd almost say that reeks of a bit of fear, trying to match up with the leafs' two 1st lines.

Click to expand...

The Bruins really don't need to stack their top line. I think they'll end up going with Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen and DeBrusk-Krejci-Pastrnak if our second line proves too strong. Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen has apparently been a better line this season than Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak.

No67 said:

The Bruins really don't need to stack their top line. I think they'll end up going with Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen and DeBrusk-Krejci-Pastrnak if our second line proves too strong. Marchand-Bergeron-Heinen has apparently been a better line this season than Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak.

Click to expand...

Bergeron/Pastrnak/Rat: 434:58, 61.9ozs%, 57.1cf%, 57.5scf%, 55.8hdcf%, 54.5gf%, .996pdo
Bergeron/Rat/Heinen: 197:31, 56.9ozs%, 55.5cf%, 54.4scf%, 49.3hdcf%, 72.8gf%, 1.055pdo

hmm. looks like they've been better in the goals for/against department, but just not the dominant possession and scoring chance line they are with pastrnak.

I'd lean towards that just being a pdo fluke, but who knows.

The Andersen bashing is getting out of hand. You guys hold him to impossible standards. It's not like he's been giving up softies left and right. This "bad stretch" has lasted only 8-9 games, and IMO he's only had one bad start during that period: last night. The rest of the time he's been the victim of bad defence and/or terrible luck. Do sample size and luck not apply to the goaltending position?

Volcanologist said:

I feel like there is enormous pressure on Matthews and Nylander in particular to redeem last year's result. Lose this series and it's going to be "look how much these guys got paid and they can't even win 1 round, haha stupid Leafs and Dubas" for the next 12 months. Their game is going to be under a microscope.

Click to expand...

No doubt.

Nylander in particular would really help himself with a strong playoff performance, because the grumbling I'm hearing from other average Leaf fans about him is reaching a fever pitch.

Matthews will no doubt become a serious target too for fan ire if his first playoff run after signing his big deal is a dud.

No67 said:

The Andersen bashing is getting out of hand. You guys hold him to impossible standards. It's not like he's been giving up softies left and right. This "bad stretch" has lasted only 8-9 games, and IMO he's only had one bad start during that period: last night. The rest of the time he's been the victim of bad defence and/or terrible luck. Do sample size and luck not apply to the goaltending position?

Click to expand...

It's "getting out of hand"? Really? Even if he hasn't been ToskaLOL-level bad out there, you don't think it's a serious, legitimate concern that he's having his worst down stretch of the season right before the playoffs, after performing poorly in the Leafs' past two playoff series?

No67 said:

The Andersen bashing is getting out of hand. You guys hold him to impossible standards. It's not like he's been giving up softies left and right. This "bad stretch" has lasted only 8-9 games, and IMO he's only had one bad start during that period: last night. The rest of the time he's been the victim of bad defence and/or terrible luck. Do sample size and luck not apply to the goaltending position?

Click to expand...

sample size definitely applies.

This year: .917
W/Leafs: .918
W/Ducks: .918
Career: .918

we know what Freddy is by now.

but just like we all said Freddy was playing like a legit Vezina candidate for at least the first half of the year, we have to point out that he's sucking right now, which is why his save percentage has dropped right back down to his career norm.

the issue is the playoffs, of course. first playoffs we got a pretty normal freddy (.915 - though he did give up a howler in OT which may have cost us the series), second playoffs we got terrible freddy, whose performance in games 2 and 7 pretty much killed us.

so we're all hoping we at least get normal average freddy this time.....though hey, would be nice to get a super-hot freddy this time to balance out the 3 playoffs nicely.

All you need is Freddy to get hot and they are going on a long run. And he is certainly capable of that.