The 2019 offseason is going to be fascinating for the Maple Leafs.
They have their established core in place, yes, but how they work around that group while almost everyone of note comes off their entry-level contract is going to be a complex puzzle for GM Kyle Dubas and his management team to solve.
What follows is a look at where all 27 players who appeared with the Leafs this season potentially fit into that puzzle this summer. This should be considered a mix of analysis, reporting and informed speculation, but it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Leafs themselves haven’t made many of these decisions final at this point.
They did, after all, just stop playing a week ago.
That said, this is a worthwhile exercise to distinguish who will be part of the future of this team, while keeping in mind that they’ve got to shed at least some payroll. I’ve got 14 players either as locks or near-locks for next season, and I expect at least a few of the unknowns to return as well.
But make no mistake: There will be changes in Toronto.
Big ones, if Dubas gets his way.
The Untouchables: Seven locks to stay
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Auston Matthews — The face of the franchise, now with a contract to match. The only change to be expected here is a new letter on his jersey.
John Tavares — Not going anywhere after a career year in season one in Toronto. Basically did it all in the first year of his seven-year deal, aside from an underwhelming offensive showing in the postseason. He’ll be motivated to improve on that in 2019-20.
Morgan Rielly — Under contract for an absolute bargain at $5-million for another three years. Can you imagine what he’d get paid if he was headed to market this summer? One of the cap bargains who makes their high-priced forwards affordable.
Frederik Andersen — This season felt like a step forward for Andersen, even though the save percentage ended up similar and even with the disappointing showing in Game 7 in Boston. He turns 30 in October and has two years left on his contract, during which he should remain Toronto’s undisputed No. 1 in goal. After next year, however, they’ll have to decide if they want to pay up to keep him into his mid-30s.
William Nylander — This one might surprise some people, but I don’t believe Nylander’s going anywhere in the near term. Not only did Dubas say he wasn’t trading him, but it also doesn’t make logical sense to sell low on a 23-year-old who already has two 60-point seasons under his belt and was clearly thrown off by the contract dispute and games missed this past season. If he has another disappointing year in 2019-20, then perhaps he becomes less of an untouchable. For now, he remains in the core.
Jake Muzzin — No-nonsense vet proved exactly what this team needed in the 30 regular season and seven playoff games he played for the Leafs, replacing Jake Gardiner’s minutes and not looking out of place in doing so. He’s a pending UFA next year, however, and will want a significant raise from the bargain $4-million he’s at until 2020. By then, however, the Leafs cap situation gets a bit less cluttered and accommodating him at a higher figure is doable.
Zach Hyman — Could miss the first month of the season due to knee surgery. But after a 21-goal season on the top line, he isn’t going anywhere as long as this coaching staff is in place. Signed cheap another two seasons ($2.25-million) and a Mike Babcock favourite.
Likely staying: The core and more
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Mitch Marner — This is going to be a very tough negotiation. Potentially the hardest yet. My sense is the Leafs are committed to holding the line here, and Marner won’t get anything approaching Matthews’ big payday. At the top end of the salary scale, centres have typically been paid more than wingers, so there’s some logic to that stand, but the question is how low can they get Marner’s camp to go? I imagine they find some way to get a compromise deal done, but if this gets past the draft unresolved, all bets are off. I just can’t entirely rule out an offer sheets or trade.
Kasperi Kapanen — Again, I think this gets done and he stays, but this has Nylander Lite potential given Kapanen doesn’t have arbitration rights and is coming off a strong season. With the Leafs’ tight cap situation and Dubas wanting to improve the blueline, Kapanen may be his most obvious trade chip, too, as other teams love his skating ability and versatility. Toronto’s deep on right wing, especially if they believe Jeremy Bracco can translate his impressive AHL campaign to the NHL at some point in the near future.
Andreas Johnsson — Johnsson’s situation is less complicated than Kapanen’s, even though they had similar seasons, production wise. He’s older, has played 50 fewer regular season games and plays left wing, where the Leafs aren’t nearly as deep. Plus the fact he has arbitration rights means Toronto can likely get him on a cheap-ish one-year deal. Players with such a small body of work typically can’t cash in big in arb hearings.
Travis Dermott — No reason to think Dermott won’t be back, despite a tough postseason. Still on an entry-level contract for one more season, he plausibly could end up in top-four minutes if he slides over to the right side again. Getting paired with a veteran like Muzzin or Rielly could help him take the next step.
Trevor Moore — His “heavy keister” isn’t going anywhere. Except maybe a promotion to a better line.
Calle Rosen — Had a huge AHL year derailed partly by a broken foot in midseason, which robbed him an opportunity to get NHL minutes throughout the second half. Has shown he deserves a full-time role with the Leafs, even if it’s as the seventh D. At 25, he doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors.
Nic Petan — Dubas didn’t sign him to a two-year deal right after acquiring him at the trade deadline without a reason.
Head coach Mike Babcock — I know the door is open a crack. But even with all of the disagreements and personality clashes, I have a hard time seeing Dubas pulling the trigger on a change this early into his tenure. It’s a fair question whether Babcock is the right coach for this group, and it’s no state secret that some Leafs players are frustrated playing under him. But I feel like he gets another year to show he can change.
The big decisions
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Patrick Marleau — No one is saying anything on the Marleau front these days. Here’s what I know: If they bring him back, in a fourth-line role, making $6.25-million, it’s a disservice to their season. Even if they have to retain half of that contract, they should move it, so that that $3-million and change can be allocated to the D. Now, obviously, Marleau’s no-move clause complicates things, but this is where you have to sit down with the player and make it clear how limited their role will be if they stay. He’s had a wonderful career, but he’s become a real impediment to management being able to keep this group together and improve. I doubt this contract is unmovable, under the right circumstance. Frankly, it should never have been signed in the first place; the Leafs would have been better off giving him an enormous two-year deal than this one.
Nazem Kadri — The ironic thing about Kadri’s playoff suspension is it may well have made him less likely to get moved. Why? Because the Leafs got a close-up look at their lineup without him, and how little flexibility they had up front. Nylander is only going to be worth his deal if he’s producing points, and he’s likely only going to be producing those points on one of the top two lines with either Matthews or Tavares. If Nylander’s playing wing, the Leafs need Kadri and his bargain contract in that 3C role. Or someone to replace him. And it’s going to be awfully hard to find someone as good as Kadri for that spot for $4.5-million for another three years. Until the Leafs have more options down the middle, my guess is Kadri stays. And the fact that Dubas and Kadri were both talking about what sounded like anger-management classes at locker-cleanout day speaks to the fact they may have already charted a path forward in Toronto.
Assistant coaches Jim Hiller and D.J. Smith — It’s not often assistant coaches get put into the spotlight like this, and to be honest, I think it’s a little unfair. The coaching staff as a group has to take ownership for special-teams results, not just the one assistant primarily responsible for the scheme. But if we’re splitting things up, Hiller, in particular, has helped the Leafs produce top five power-play results over his four years in the organization. The PK and blueline, in general, have been far less convincing under Smith, who may well be hired by another organization anyway.
Most likely to be traded
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Connor Brown — I have a hard time seeing Brown back as a Leaf. Maybe if they find a workable way to move Marleau without retaining salary, and they feel Brown can help fill a hole on the left side. But there are teams interested in what Brown offers – there have been talks with Edmonton already – and his $2.1-million salary is an easy place to cut to squeeze under the cap. With Moore’s strong play and other options on the wing like Bracco emerging, this one feels inevitable.
Nikita Zaitsev — Another player the Leafs have at least explored moving in the past. Zaitsev’s contract is awful and his offensive numbers are poor, too, so this won’t be easy, but like Marleau, I believe this contract is more portable than it’s generally made out to be. Teams are badly in need of right-shot defencemen. The bigger question I have is if you find a deal that ships Zaitsev out for little in return, who exactly is playing on your right side next season? That’ll be a taller task than simply making the last five years of this bizarre deal disappear.
The unknowns: Too tough to call at this point
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Garret Sparks — The only person who truly knows if Sparks’ shot at a backup role with the NHL club is over is Dubas. Sparks signed an extension back in early March, and he comes cheap. He also has a long history with the GM, which could well override the fact he finished the year so poorly. It wouldn’t shock me if he gets another chance, but I’ll bet he has to have a better showing in camp and preseason this time around to earn the role.
Frederik Gauthier — Another ex-Marlie who’s under contract next season for a small contract. The Goat played better than I expected this year, but for all his strides, he’s still very limited at the NHL level. I think they need someone with more versatility in this spot. But quality 4Cs can be hard to find for cheap.
Justin Holl — I cannot imagine he wants to go through another year in press-box purgatory. It wouldn’t surprise me if Holl gets a Leivo-like agreement with Dubas where if he’s not regularly in the lineup, he’ll get dealt.
Likely going: So you’re saying there’s a chance…
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Jake Gardiner — Here’s what I know on Gardiner: He would 100 percent take less to stay. He and his family absolutely love Toronto and being a part of this organization. And the Leafs like him as a player, even after everything that’s happened with the injury and in the last couple postseasons. But, objectively, does it makes sense to bring him back – even at a discount – given they’ve got Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Rosen and (presumably soon) Rasmus Sandin on the left side? Gardiner turns 29 in July, so even if he overcomes his back issues, the question of how much longer he can contribute before an age-related decline is a fair one, too. The Leafs could find a way to make a deal in the $5-million and change range work. The question is: Should they?
Ron Hainsey — Another player who loved it in Toronto and who I think would stay. What is unclear is how much of a haircut he would take from $3-million in order to do so. If he (and the coaching staff) was fine accepting more of a depth role at an equivalent salary, I would bring him back.
Tyler Ennis — Similarly: It depends on the price. Ennis was a steal at $650,000 this season and become one of the most popular players in the dressing room, too. His gutsy performance in Game 7 was a good indication of what he brings beyond the 12 goals in 51 games he put up during the regular season. But given he turns 30 in October, Ennis may well want to try to cash in more somewhere else in a larger role.
Martin Marincin — It’s hard to know for sure, given the GM’s obvious affinity for him, but this feels like the end after four very up-and-down seasons in Toronto.
Michael Hutchinson — He’s a local, and he’s also the kind of veteran No. 3 backup to the backup that the Leafs could use as a failsafe if they do want to give Sparks another shot. So you never know.
So long and farewell: The former Leafs
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Igor Ozhiganov — Igor, we hardly knew ye. In part because you struggled with the language and only gave a few interviews (using Zaitsev as a translator). But also in part due to the fact you only played 14 minutes a night and spent a lot of the second half of the season in the press box.
Ozhiganov can simply make more money back in the KHL than as a fringe NHL defenceman, which is what he looked like in most games this season. The Leafs are likely only going to be able to pay their fourth line forwards and bottom-pair D around the league minimum going forward, which will make it hard to retain veteran European free agents after their ELCs.
See you at the world championships OzDog. Jeff O’Neill’s number is now available for a new taker.
