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OT: American Politics

Habsy said:
Pretty much everyone was sure he'd lose in 2016.
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and he almost did lose, he won by a **** hair. That and a 2 decade long propaganda war against the candidate the Democrat establishment thought they were coronating, who happened to run a trash bag campaign.

Literally every ****ing star possible aligned in Trump's favour in 2016. Even if his support was the same as 2016 (it's not) and the same numbers were galvanized against in him 2016 as they are now in 2019 (they weren't). Trump would have required another massive stroke of luck to win in 2020.

I don't have your confidence and that is likely because I have zero confidence in the Democrats to get it done.
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That is my only proviso, though I think you and I disagree as to what they could do to drop the ball. Someone with left wing policies and a backbone shit stomps all over Trump in the general. Left wing policy points are far more popular in the US than you seem to want to accept.
 
I have no idea what's going to happen, tbh.

I can convince myself completely on either result on any given day.
 
zeke said:
MSNBC
@MSNBC
WATCH: President Trump says that he could win the 18-year Afghan War in 10 days, because he has plans that could wipe Afghanistan off the face of the Earth and kill 10,000,000 people, but "I don't want to go that route."

CNN @CNN
4m
Afghanistan has demanded the United States clarify remarks made by President Trump, who said the country "would be wiped off the face of the Earth" if he wanted to win the war in Afghanistan. cnn.it/2Y7ot8I
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CNN NationalSecurity
@NatSecCNN
SCOOP: @kylieatwood reports Amb. Zalmay Khalilizad met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other officials on Tuesday in what was described as a tense and confrontational meeting, following @realDonaldTrump claims US could wipe it 'off the face of the Earth'
 
Wayward DP said:
yeah, I'm with you on this one habsy.

I actually think he'll win again as things currently stand. the Dem nomination process and subsequent polls may change my mind, but as of right now, I think he wins reelection.
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I don't see the path. In 2016, Trump won all of the toss up states of any importance

- He won Florida by about 100K votes (29 electoral votes) and his net approval has gone from +22 to -3 since his election
- He won Pennsylvannia by 45K votes (20 electoral votes) net approval from +10 to -9
- Michigan by 11K votes (16 electoral votes) net approval from +7 to -15
- Wisconsin by 23K votes (10 votes) from +6 to -14
- The Republicans shit stomped in Ohio by 450K (18 votes) and recent polling has it back to being a battleground

It would take a minor miracle for him to win any of those other than Florida (which will be close). But worse for Trump and the Republicans is that they've turned staunch fortress states into battleground states.

- Poll from last week showed 53% of Utah disapproves of the job Trump is doing.
- Georgia of all ****ing places has slid from a net rating of +18 (and a comfy 200K vote margin in 2016) to a dead heat

Trump hasn't gained popularity anywhere, and barely won in 2016 against an unlikeable candidate running a poor campaign, with goofy FBI involvement at the 11th hour.
 
The Democrats need to take 34 electoral votes from this list:

- Florida (29)
- Ohio (18)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Penn (20)
- Michigan (16)

Lose any 3 of those and it's a wrap. Only Ohio was won with any sort of margin for error in 2016 of that group.

and that's before considering places like North Carolina which have shifted blue over the last few years (15 votes), and a few other states where the Dems have made gains over the last few years (Arizona & Georgia specifically).
 
I mean, I'm sure you know what you're talking about this ME, but all this confident analysis as to why it's almost impossible that Trump will win again is too eerily similar to all the same confident analysis we heard from you, Montana, zeke et al around here, as well as pretty much everybody in the media prior to the last election.

After 2016, and hell, even after George W Bush's re-election a decade and a half ago now, I'm just not willing to get my hopes up or give the American electorate the benefit of the doubt.
 
LeafGm said:
I mean, I'm sure you know what you're talking about this ME, but all this confident analysis as to why it's almost impossible that Trump will win again is too eerily similar to all the same confident analysis we heard from you, Montana, zeke et al around here, as well as pretty much everybody in the media prior to the last election.

After 2016, and hell, even after George W Bush's re-election a decade and a half ago now, I'm just not willing to get my hopes up or give the American electorate the benefit of the doubt.
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Except I'm not using the word "impossible" anywhere. The first Trump election was extremely improbable, not impossible (Nate Silver had him at 29% on the day of the election). He's become significantly less popular since then. It's important to understand how 2016 happened. He had a path to victory in 2016 that required him to win some recently economically disadvantaged swing states and combination of willingness to speak about economic issues (poorly, and he lied a whole lot in his trademark fashion, but he spoke about them while Clinton kind of wasn't ****ing willing to in anything other than weasel words) with a side order of racist dog whistling and he swept the bag of them. Since then he's lost a pile of support in those same states because they realize that he lied his face off about giving a **** about middle america's economic issues and there has been a surge on the democrat side of things in legitimate candidates who are willing to talk about income inequality and related issues.

He has the same path to victory in 2016 except he's going to be carrying 4 years of lies and political baggage when he goes to the same people and does what? Admits that the economy passed them by, but give him another shot? Nope. He's going to stand in front of them, and proclaim that America was made great again by him and him alone. He's not some unknown outsider to these people anymore who can sell a vision of how incredible a leader he is. He's a known commodity and the heavy majority in most of those swing states finds him wanting.

Can the Democrats bottle this? Absolutely. Failure is in their ****ing DNA. But I think it's worth pointing out how hard a big chunk of the party has shifted to focusing on income inequality and related issues. 4 years ago it was Bernie with an unknown Warren as the only real champions of these issues. Now it's the majority of candidates who are basically repackaging Bernie's 2016 talking points for their own use...and if that fails, white people love Biden. Trump's kryptonite is having his white base given a charming, funny old white guy to measure him against.
 
worm said:
wildcard is still russia
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I don't know man. There is a law of diminishing returns on the overt propaganda I think. It's definitely galvanized and solified a big chunk of the country into crazy town USA. But I don't think it's going to swing many voters that it hasn't already swung. It's not like they stopped operations because Trump won and are going to pick them up again when he's in danger of losing. Their goal isn't to re-elect Trump, it's to divide the country and radicalize as many as they can. Trump is just the personification of those efforts, not the end game unto himself.
 
Is he beatable? Of course he is. I just think you're underestimating his appeal and the amount of people that will secretly vote for him. Pretty much a repeat of 2016. I'm not confident in the least saying he'll definitely lose.
 
Habsy said:
Is he beatable? Of course he is. I just think you're underestimating his appeal and the amount of people that will secretly vote for him. Pretty much a repeat of 2016. I'm not confident in the least saying he'll definitely lose.
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I guess I just don't buy this "secret" vote stuff. There was no secret vote in 2016. He received pretty much exactly the level of national support that was expected, it just lined up perfectly on a state level basis.

Also remember that he was pretty ****ing DOA before Comey broke long standing FBI policy of talking about on going investigations that could effect an election. Most of the "impossible" Trump talk was from before that, and Trump's polling took a big jump from "dead in the water" to "he's got a chance" from that point onwards.

Like I said, is it possible that a bunch of unlikely shit lines up in his favour perfectly again? Sure. Is it likely? No. Stacking unlikely events on top of each other doesn't happen particularly often. For the Taleb readers in the group, Trump was a black swan event. US politics was probably over due for one.
 
MindzEye said:
Except I'm not using the word "impossible" anywhere. The first Trump election was extremely improbable, not impossible (Nate Silver had him at 29% on the day of the election). He's become significantly less popular since then. It's important to understand how 2016 happened. He had a path to victory in 2016 that required him to win some recently economically disadvantaged swing states and combination of willingness to speak about economic issues (poorly, and he lied a whole lot in his trademark fashion, but he spoke about them while Clinton kind of wasn't ****ing willing to in anything other than weasel words) with a side order of racist dog whistling and he swept the bag of them. Since then he's lost a pile of support in those same states because they realize that he lied his face off about giving a **** about middle america's economic issues and there has been a surge on the democrat side of things in legitimate candidates who are willing to talk about income inequality and related issues.

He has the same path to victory in 2016 except he's going to be carrying 4 years of lies and political baggage when he goes to the same people and does what? Admits that the economy passed them by, but give him another shot? Nope. He's going to stand in front of them, and proclaim that America was made great again by him and him alone. He's not some unknown outsider to these people anymore who can sell a vision of how incredible a leader he is. He's a known commodity and the heavy majority in most of those swing states finds him wanting.

Can the Democrats bottle this? Absolutely. Failure is in their ****ing DNA. But I think it's worth pointing out how hard a big chunk of the party has shifted to focusing on income inequality and related issues. 4 years ago it was Bernie with an unknown Warren as the only real champions of these issues. Now it's the majority of candidates who are basically repackaging Bernie's 2016 talking points for their own use...and if that fails, white people love Biden. Trump's kryptonite is having his white base given a charming, funny old white guy to measure him against.
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**** Biden.
 
Through some ****ery, I got to read the article.

It's a really complicated look at a situation that isn't complicated. I outlined the situation above:

The Democrats need to take 34 electoral votes from this list:

- Florida (29)
- Ohio (18)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Penn (20)
- Michigan (16)
Click to expand...

This guy goes on talking about the sun belt and shit...any discussion of 2020 stops and starts with that list of states imo. Trump can't shed 34 of those states without making up in other places that he lost relatively narrowly in 2016 (Nevada *6*, Minnesota *10*, Virginia *13*, New Hampshire *4*). Trump won Wisconsin-Penn-Michigan (46 electoral votes) by 80K votes. Hillary won Nevada-Minny-NH (20) by 75K. It looks a hell of a lot like Trump is going to lose all 3 of those listed at the moment with Florida, Ohio, Georgia & NC all Trump states that are close.
 
Altair said:
Americs can do so much better than biden
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Baby steps mother****er, baby steps.

Getting rid of the senile authoritarian is the most important task at hand. Biden isn't who I would want either, but he is skull ****ing Trump in head to head polling and watching Trump get face ****ed at the ballot box would be repudiation for the entire Trump experience imo. Putting up with Uncle Joe would be worth watching the country take a fat shit all over Trump's movement.

As long as Biden takes a legit VP with him (Kamala, Warren, Mayor Pete, etc), I'm good with it.
 
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