New Canadian Politics Thread

[Wayward DP]

He's a different breed than the last two, that's for sure. I fear he's a very good, charismatic politician and really, that may be all you need to beat JT at this point. I thought he was going to continue on with the wacko shit and as a result basically counted him out entirely, but I underestimated him I think.

I personally don't find him at all charismatic but folks do seem to have that impression of him.

He is a nasally weenie loser who was likely picked on in high school. He is a career politician. But he is not JT and he speaks the right coded language about elites so all the Fuck Trudeau folks are likely gonna vote for him.

 

[Wayward DP]

Right now, Pierre has pulled 5 of the 8% of voters that were showing up in the PPc column. It's just not a viable dance that I think can be maintained.

On top of that, I'm also not convinced that the Liberals and NDP won't just coalition up after their recent tag teaming was received so well by their respective voters. I think the centre-left is a bit fatigued of constantly being a bad vote split away from a conservative government.

I fear that your optimism is showing here. I put a Lib/NDP coalition odds at zero. I think you forget/underestimate how much those two parties hate each other (mostly NDP hating the Liberals) and how incompatible some of the core policy positions are (i.e. the NDP is constantly trotting out anti-semitic talking points that would absolutely not fly under the Liberal umbrella).

If anything, Jagmeet will argue that he is the only protection from corrupt Trudeau and crazy PP. Or something like that.

Libs and NDP are blood rivals, I cannot see them putting that aside. And for Jagmeet, it's mostly a lose-lose option. Happy to be proven wrong but I just cannot see it.

 

[CH1]

PP’s wife is also good for him, she can convincingly rant (in both our official languages) about how JT elite style “socialism” is a sickness that killed her native Venezuela

 

[leafman101]

Trudeau probably has a timing issue now too. It will be hard to win an election during a recession that his fiscal policy exacerbated, even though everyone was doing the same thing. He needs to keep the coalition together until 2025 to ride it out.

but the NDP would probably be smart to jump ship and bash the liberals to get some of that left/center government resentment vote before CPC sweeps it all up.

 

[Wayward DP]

and PP is actually bilingual. I don't think anyone has mentioned that.

Quebec is a total wild card and fucking nuts as an electorate but I do think that PP could also succeed there and steal a bunch of Liberal seats. If he does, bye bye Liberal majority. his bilingualism can only be an asset here.

keep in mind the Conservatives likely have a path to victory if they can get up into the what, even 35% of the popular vote range? especially if Jagmeet cannibalizes some JT supporters (fatigue). and CPC is currently polling at 33.7% (according to 338), which is already higher than the Libs. one scandal, one good campaign gotcha, etc. and another 2-3% points could swing and make a big deal.

so yeah, the more I look into this, the more of a tizzy I seem to be getting myself into. cue ME and WeHave for some balance. anyways, at the very least I am not among those folks who think PP is incapable of and will never win a general election. but boy oh boy do I hope I am wrong cause I fear as PM PP would be worse than Harper.

 

[Wayward DP]

voter fatigue, a potential recession, sky high inflation, people still pissed about the pandemic... not a whole lot in the cards lining up red these days.

 

[Preston]

I personally don't find him at all charismatic but folks do seem to have that impression of him.

He is a nasally weenie loser who was likely picked on in high school. He is a career politician. But he is not JT and he speaks the right coded language about elites so all the Fuck Trudeau folks are likely gonna vote for him.

Oh he's terrible, but he has generated infinitely more excitement than the last two dolts. I guess it's not hard to beat zero excitement, but anything above zero is likely to beat JT at this stage quite frankly. This isn't a very difficult task.

 

[CH1]

Trudeau probably has a timing issue now too. It will be hard to win an election during a recession that his fiscal policy exacerbated, even though everyone was doing the same thing. He needs to keep the coalition together until 2025 to ride it out.

but the NDP would probably be smart to jump ship and bash the liberals to get some of that left/center government resentment vote before CPC sweeps it all up.

its hard for any incumbent (let alone a long running leader like JT) to win during a recession

voters emotionally prefer giving “new ideas from the new guy a chance”

 

[Wayward DP]

just like how for the life of me I will never understand the appeal of Trump to the blue collar masses, I fail to understand the appeal of PP. however, I do recognize it.

 

[hockeylover]

I think voting in a conservative government federally will be a disaster but I look forward to the inevitable deja vu of a shitload of people saying everything will be fine and they won't do the things they say they will and I'm overreacting and them realizing way too late they were wrong.

Woot.

 

[Wayward DP]

I think voting in a conservative government federally will be a disaster but I look forward to the inevitable deja vu of a shitload of people saying everything will be fine and they won't do the things they say they will and I'm overreacting and them realizing way too late they were wrong.

Woot.

I mean, I don’t expect him to be dotard bad. But worse than Harper? For sure. And Harper frequently sent me into unholy rages

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

Also, Harper probably gets pumped sooner if the Liberals had put forward a decent candidate. The Harvard twat and dion were two of the 3 weakest liberal leaders since fucking confederation.

It's a really difficult dance to maintain and its getting harder imo.

Yep, Harper was never that well liked. He won elections because the Liberals ran sock puppets against him. No one was going to hand Ignatieff or Dion a mandate. The Liberals were being arrogant and not reading the room.

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

I fear that your optimism is showing here. I put a Lib/NDP coalition odds at zero. I think you forget/underestimate how much those two parties hate each other (mostly NDP hating the Liberals) and how incompatible some of the core policy positions are (i.e. the NDP is constantly trotting out anti-semitic talking points that would absolutely not fly under the Liberal umbrella).

If anything, Jagmeet will argue that he is the only protection from corrupt Trudeau and crazy PP. Or something like that.

Libs and NDP are blood rivals, I cannot see them putting that aside. And for Jagmeet, it's mostly a lose-lose option. Happy to be proven wrong but I just cannot see it.

Jagmeet would rather have some degree of power in a coalition with the Liberals than have zero power under a CPC government. A coalition, formal or otherwise with the Liberals, allows him to keep being relevant. He can pretend that he's the Assistant PM while Justin treats him as Assistant TO THE PM.

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

voter fatigue, a potential recession, sky high inflation, people still pissed about the pandemic... not a whole lot in the cards lining up red these days.

But it's only the Cons who are behaving like an election is weeks away. In reality the Liberals don't have to do anything for years yet, and a lot can go wrong in that time when you have a leader like Pee-Pee who's trying to pass for normal. Let's see how long he can go without letting the mask slip between now and an eventual election in 2 or 3 years.

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

its hard for any incumbent (let alone a long running leader like JT) to win during a recession

voters emotionally prefer giving “new ideas from the new guy a chance”

Again you are talking as though an election is imminent. It isn't. And Poilievre's popularity stems from the fact that he's only been leader for 5 minutes. Sure, if an election was 6 weeks from now I'd be worried, but we're nowhere near the deadline yet. Right now, the CPC and their supporters are acting like Leafs fans in December, conveniently forgetting that there's still 40 games left to play.

"Plan the parade!"

 

[zeke]

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

Just take him to Poilievre's next press conference. Really scary monsters there.

 

[thehabhater]

Again you are talking as though an election is imminent. It isn't. And Poilievre's popularity stems from the fact that he's only been leader for 5 minutes. Sure, if an election was 6 weeks from now I'd be worried, but we're nowhere near the deadline yet. Right now, the CPC and their supporters are acting like Leafs fans in December, conveniently forgetting that there's still 40 games left to play.

"Plan the parade!"

The CPC has close to 3 more years to keep putting the puck into their own net.

Bet the farm, they will.....

 

[Wayward DP]

Jagmeet would rather have some degree of power in a coalition with the Liberals than have zero power under a CPC government. A coalition, formal or otherwise with the Liberals, allows him to keep being relevant. He can pretend that he's the Assistant PM while Justin treats him as Assistant TO THE PM.

strongly disagree. and history supports me here. coalitions are a political loser right now. pretty sure his base would eat him alive if he even suggested it.

 

[Wayward DP]

But it's only the Cons who are behaving like an election is weeks away. In reality the Liberals don't have to do anything for years yet, and a lot can go wrong in that time when you have a leader like Pee-Pee who's trying to pass for normal. Let's see how long he can go without letting the mask slip between now and an eventual election in 2 or 3 years.

an election arrives more or less when the NDP decide they want one. and everyone continues to underestimate PP.

listen, I was never worried about Scheer or really much about O'Toole. this guy is a different beast. I think we need to be very wary and very, very afraid. PP's political instincts are just so so much better than either insurance salesman or O'Toole.