The Mitchell Marner Contract Watch Thread

[WellPlayed]

3 days to camp. Time for its own thread.

Personal feeling is Paul is a piece of work who isn’t going to let this go for less than AM dollars. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Preston]

Paul is Trump.

Matthews is Obama.

Mitch will not take a worse contract than Matthews for this reason. A decent theory about the $15 million in third year rumor:

Draglikepull @draglikepull
18m


So let's assume the thing Friedman reported about Marner's side suggesting a bridge with a $15M qualifying offer is true. How did Marner's side arrive at that number? I think it's actually pretty simple. (1/2)

Draglikepull @draglikepull
16m

Marner (reportedly) wants the same contract as Matthews. Matthews makes $58M over 5 years. If Marner signs a 3 year deal for (say) $9M, then he has $31M left to make up to match Matthews' deal over 2 years. $15M per year (almost) gets there. (2/2)

 

[Killer93]

These Marner numbers make my head hurt

 

[hockeylover]

Toronto Media doing a great job of normalizing some of these insane numbers.

 

[TimHorton]

The only potential rainbow is Ferris is a well known folder when the chips are actually down right?

 

[Volcanologist]

I don't see what's going to change in the next few weeks. Still feel this is going to the Dec. 1st limit.

 

[Artnes]

Can they afford that? The prorated hit for this year would put them well over the cap

 

[Volcanologist]

Can they afford that? The prorated hit for this year would put them well over the cap

They made the Clarkson deal so that they can afford to sign Marner during the season using LTIR fuckery of some sort. I think it gives them up to 10.55(?)

Since we happen to employ the guy that wrote these kind of cap rules, I'm going to roll with it despite others out there claiming the Leafs cannot afford to sign Marner if this goes into the regular season.

 

[zeke]

6x$10

 

[BeLeafer]

According to CJ or account4hockey's reporting of what he said, Marner has been looking around the league for a 3 year offersheet and the Leafs have no interest in a three year deal.

Chris Johnston on SN960 says Marner's camp has been looking at 3 year deals recently and even looking for offersheets with other teams in that term range.

What he said is transcribed word for word in the image.

 

[BeLeafer]

If we trust CJ on this, that means the Leafs haven't tabled a 3 year offer and those rumours are bullshit. That's a relief, given they were all north of $8.5MM.

The funny thing in all of this is that in all Marner's attempts to leverage offersheets absolutely no one is willing to meet his demands. You'd think reality would start to set in with that, no? If not, it's good leverage for Dubas to go firmer with them.

 

[zeke]

yeah the desperation to find favorable offersheets is starting to look a bit embarassing, and backfiring completely. he's losing leverage by the day.

it's getting close to the point where Dubas can give a - still very generous - take it or leave it offer and say "hey, if you want to miss your 22yr old season and $10m dollars for no reason, go for it".

it's not like Marner will ever be able to make up that money lost. he'd just be throwing it away.

 

[BeLeafer]

That's exactly what he should do but not for $10MM. Why be so generous?

Everything has blown up in their faces and, if not for the local media, he would have been laughed out of town already. I worry Dubas lacks the fangs to get firm in these types of negotiations. He might be too reasonable. It's hard to say but this is the second one that's dragged on too long.

 

[Artnes]

Finding a taker for Nylanders contract would have been easy

This one not so much. Mitch is great but I don’t believe any team is willing to pay those prices plus trade assets for it

Dubas basically has two options here. Continue to negotiate or let him sit and the last one is not an option

 

[uncus]

Let him sit ........

Leafs only lose marners services for the year.

They can use that money on december to bring in another player who is on an expiring contract.

Marner still doesnt get any time off of his entry level and loses out on the money.

Pretty much in leafs favour.

Mitch can just concentrate on watching the Stanley cup parade downtown and maybe be the captain of his parade section.

Or mitchy can just murder his dad for being such a fuxking idiot.

If he does do the powder chop on his family he would have a good cell to watch the Stanley cup from and play on the mens floor hockey team, get extra canteen and be the CAPTAIN there!

Let him sit and then let the courts decide on the matter/issue of a league and team being able to control his ability to make money and support himself.

It will end up in court and it wont end well for the league. Lol

 

[zeke]

That's exactly what he should do but not for $10MM. Why be so generous?

Everything has blown up in their faces and, if not for the local media, he would have been laughed out of town already. I worry Dubas lacks the fangs to get firm in these types of negotiations. He might be too reasonable. It's hard to say but this is the second one that's dragged on too long.

i think dubas' entire thing is establishing himself as fair, reasonable, and consistent.

he isnt scared of his evaluations of RFA being higher than many others', and doesnt want to be a guy that will try to put the screws to a player and pay him less than his evaluations say he's worth.

this is already paying off in the short run, and will pay off even more in the long run imo, especially when it comes time to re-signing these guys as UFA.

its all about building trust and establishing yoirself as a fair and consistent dealer - right now Ferris might not actually believe dubas actually believes the numbers he's showing him that say marner is just not on matthews' level, but as long as dubas stays consistent in his evaluations with all his players and their agents, the less of this bargaining gamesmanship garbage we'll see.

 

[leafman101]

Darren Dreger
The Leafs have been persistent in pushing both a 7 and 8 year extension at Marner. The $11 mill per offer was made in June and included $1.6 mil in B bonuses Toronto wouldn't pay Marner in his entery level contract. 3 yr ext remains the focus.


In case anyone wasn't positive that Dreger makes things up, I'm pretty sure Dubas wasn't offering schedule B rookie bonuses to Marner. Because he can't.

 

[zeke]

Also, just this week Dregs said "can't they just raise the offer to $11m x 6?", and now suddenly after someone else mentioned an $11m x 7 deal (not even as an actual deal but more of a guess), Dregs of course now has to pretend that he knew about that one too.

 

[Blueman]

Finding a taker for Nylanders contract would have been easy

This one not so much. Mitch is great but I don’t believe any team is willing to pay those prices plus trade assets for it

Dubas basically has two options here. Continue to negotiate or let him sit and the last one is not an option

Dubas can go off the board with trades. If Pittsburgh falls out early, maybe it’s time for them to rebuild. Crosby and Letang for Marner and Liljegren. Yes I’ve been drinking.

 

[hockeylover]

If he actually turned down 11 million a year to play with his very good hometown team long term, I’d ship him out tomorrow.