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The Mitchell Marner Contract Watch Thread

zeke

Well-known member
simplified ELC numbers (Reg Season + Playoffs), with just 1. Qoc, 2. Average p60 and p1/60 at ES, 3. Average p60 and p1/60 on PP, 3. Average of cfrel and xgfrel.

ranked here in order of the ES p60 average, but you can adjust up or down based on the other numbers too.

McDavid (22, 12.5x8): 222gms, A+ qoc, ES 2.60, PP 4.53, +5.5rel
Matthews (22, 11.6x5): 232gms, A qoc, ES 2.45, PP 5.61, +1.5rel
Marner (22, 10.9x6): 261gms, A qoc, ES 2.12, PP 5.81, -0.3rel
Point (23, ????????): 250gms, A qoc, ES 1.99, PP 4.62, +0.6rel
Pastrnak (21, 6.7x6): 178gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.97, PP 4.99, +4.0rel
Boeser (22, 5.9x3): 138gms, B qoc, ES 1.94, PP 4.73, +2.1rel
Nylander (22, 7.0x6): 198gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.82, PP 5.19, +2.2rel
Konecny (22, 5.5x6): 238gms, B qoc, ES 1.81, PP 2.03, -1.5rel
Ehlers (22, 6.0x7): 251gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.80, PP 3.24, +1.2rel
Connor (23, ??????): 201gms, A qoc, ES 1.80, PP 3.22, -2.4rel
Draisaitl (22, 8.5x8): 204gms, A qoc, ES 1.77, PP 4.52, +2.7rel
Aho (22, 8.5x5): 256gms, A qoc, ES 1.76, PP 4.27, +1.8rel
Laine (21, ???????): 260gms, B qoc, ES 1.72, PP 4.86, -5.0rel
Rantanen (23, ???): 246gms, A+ qoc, ES 1.71, PP 4.94, +0.4rel
Meier (23, 6.0x4): 228gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.70, PP 3.39, +3.8rel
Eichel (22, 10.0x8): 209gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.66, PP 4.74, 0.0rel
Larkin (22, 6.1x5): 246gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.65, PP 2.03, -0.6rel
Schmaltz (23, 5.9x7): 183gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.64, PP 2.68, -2.8rel
Keller (21, 7.2x8): 167gms, B qoc, ES 1.58, PP 3.55, -2.2rel
 

zeke

Well-known member
I just remembered that back before Willy signed, before all this supposed rfa inflation, I had mentally slotted in $27m in caphit for the 3 kids (pretty sure I used that figure here a number of times). Turns out to be $29.5 in the end. Not so bad.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
The number betweeen Willy and Mucho averages out about what you would have expected long-term way back ~9m each.
 

Preston

Well-known member
It's textbook homering. Before Mitch was signed: He isn't worth the money! Now that he's signed: HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVER AND IS WORTH WAY MORE THAN EVERY OTHER RFA!!!!

It's fine though. No harm in being a homer really. I've seen people treat stocks like they treat sports teams. That shit is when people get burned.
 

zeke

Well-known member
i haven't really been using g60 much.

just p60 and p1/60.

but lemme look:

Rantanen: ES .73g/60, PP 2.38g/60
Marner: ES .80g/60, PP 1.37g/60

Mitch has actually been the better goalscorer at evens, though Rants has been better at on the PP.
 

zeke

Well-known member
It's textbook homering. Before Mitch was signed: He isn't worth the money! Now that he's signed: HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVER AND IS WORTH WAY MORE THAN EVERY OTHER RFA!!!!

It's fine though. No harm in being a homer really. I've seen people treat stocks like they treat sports teams. That shit is when people get burned.
I've literally posted those numbers over and over again from back before anyone signed. I just keep cutting and pasting it over and over again.
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
I don't see the sense in trying to devalue what Rantanen has done. Comparing himself to Marner is a lot more realistic than Marner using Matthews as a comparable, at least.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I think it makes absolute sense to "devalue" (read: properly value) what Rantanen has done.

Rants is the poster boy for ice-time related over-inflation of raw scoring stats.

Not to mention he's a year older - heck I just noticed that I wasn't even including Rants' pointless 9gm sample as a 19yr old.

People mention that Marner scored 94pts, which is pretty awesome, but imagine how many points he would have had if he had near 4pp minutes per game like Rants?
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
all we can do is imagine though, at this point. in the Rantanen negotiation, I really doubt that's going to count for much.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
i haven't really been using g60 much.

just p60 and p1/60.

but lemme look:

Rantanen: ES .73g/60, PP 2.38g/60
Marner: ES .80g/60, PP 1.37g/60

Mitch has actually been the better goalscorer at evens, though Rants has been better at on the PP.
Huh, neither one particularly impressive at es g/60 (down at 2nd line level). I've never really looked into Rantanen's numbers. Puffed up by the powerplay.
 

Wayward DP

Active member
Huh, neither one particularly impressive at es g/60 (down at 2nd line level). I've never really looked into Rantanen's numbers. Puffed up by the powerplay.
I would also expect that Rantanen benefits more from playing with Mackinnon than vice versa
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
Went to look at these year-by-year. Marner went from 0.82 and 0.83 a1/60 in first two years to 1.84 last year. That's a huge leap of over 120% between JVR/Bozak and Hyman/JT. His goal production only increased marginally.

I can't see anything in his underlying numbers to explain this but a large increase in oish%.
 
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