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The Mitchell Marner Contract Watch Thread

zeke

Well-known member
but his previous year's oish% was the lowest of his careers.

oish% is kind of why I don't love looking at year to year "progression" so much - usually it ends up being mostly oish% noise. over the course of their ELCs this usually evens out:

ELC ES (RS + PLYF)

McDavid 11.0% (PP 8.7%)
Point 10.5% (PP 13.1%)
Marner 10.4% (PP 9.7%)
Matthews 10.1% (PP 9.0%)
Nylander 9.8% (PP 8.7%)
Rantanen 9.3% (PP 10.5%)
 

zeke

Well-known member
I think the explanation you are looking for is named John.
can't forget this, though:

Tavares

15-16: 2.08p/60, 1.91p1/60, 8.3oish%
16-17: 1.97p/60, 1.43p1/60, 9.6oish%
17-18: 2.16p/60, 1.70p1/60, 9.7oish%
18-19: 2.77p/70, 2.25p1/60, 11.2oish%
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
can't forget this, though:

Tavares

15-16: 2.08p/60, 1.91p1/60, 8.3oish%
16-17: 1.97p/60, 1.43p1/60, 9.6oish%
17-18: 2.16p/60, 1.70p1/60, 9.7oish%
18-19: 2.77p/70, 2.25p1/60, 11.2oish%
I kid, but yeah this seems to be one of those situations where really good hockey players juice each other's offensive numbers. I remember you doing work back in the day on the Heatley-Spezza-Alfie line and how they created a ridiculous amount of magic together that they were never able to replicate anywhere else with anyone else. I have a feeling JT-Marner is going to be similar.

The devil in the details imo, is the line driving stuff. JT drives that bus, but when the play has been driven where it needs to go, Mitchy puts a lot of gimme putts on JT's stick.
 

zeke

Well-known member
yeah that sens line went nuts together.

same thing with bertuzzi-naslund and...morrison was it?
 

zeke

Well-known member
ES xgf60

16-17: Tavares 2.78, Marner 2.47
17-18: Tavares 2.51, Marner 2.52
18-19: Tavares 2.90, Marner 2.78
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
Yup, seems pretty mutually beneficial. Add a third top tier guy and they’d explode further. It’ll be interesting to see if Kapanen can break out into a 60+ point player if left with those two.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
I'll echo the notion that Mucho and JT are one of those 'sum is greater than the parts' type arrangements. they can both do together what neither can replicate alone.

Of course, now we can debate which one of them is driving this more than the other, or not.
 

zeke

Well-known member
And it may not be any kind of magic elixir that they're sharing together, but simply the first time either has played with another legit elite offensive player. ever.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Yup, seems pretty mutually beneficial. Add a third top tier guy and they’d explode further. It’ll be interesting to see if Kapanen can break out into a 60+ point player if left with those two.
I'm not convinced that Hyman wasn't a legit importnat piece of that line, to be honest.

Hyman had actually the best xgf/60 of the three, and easily the best xgf% - and the toughest qoc, too.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
Yeah, its just two legit elite players whose games suit each other perfectly, getting a chance to play together.

It would be shocking if two guys like JT and Marner didn't make each other better, considering they make everyone else they play with better.

Its not a fluke or anything, these guys are legit high, high end skills that have been dominant players at every level since they were kids.
 

zeke

Well-known member
that being said, their oish% from last year (11.2%) is still most likely unsustainable.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
but his previous year's oish% was the lowest of his careers.

oish% is kind of why I don't love looking at year to year "progression" so much - usually it ends up being mostly oish% noise. over the course of their ELCs this usually evens out:
Looking for an explanation for 1 year spike in primary assists. Averaging multiple years is useless for that exercise.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
I'm not sure players production spiking at 21-24 should be a shocker. its expected. Those are the peak offensive years of player's career.

He should be more productive at 21-26 than he was at 19-20.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
I'd love to see how often players primary assists rates increase 120% between 2nd and 3rd years independent of linemates. My guess is that it's about zero.
 
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