If they keep the payroll the same, we basically have:
18 (JB) + 14.5 (Estrada) + 13.6 (Liriano) + 10 (Grilli/Howell/Barney/etc...) ~= 55M to spend.
Of that, we probably need about 20M for arbitration raises between Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, etc... So roughly 35M to replace 1 starter, 1 top/middle of the lineup bat, 1 5th starter, plus the regular depth otherwise. And then that's not factoring in that guys like Tulo and Martin get yet another year older, although we have enough guys on down years that our projections for next year should still be decent.
Basically, we'll need to actually find some good buys in free agency. Need to avoid FA moves like Bautista and Morales who cost money and provide very limited production.