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The ****ing 2017-18 Season

Signing Tavares would have some ripple effects

1) It will mean a heavier reliance on the Matthews/Tavares lines vs. the 3rd and 4th. Papi and JT will get 19-20+ minutes each
2) we will probably have to trade Kadri. I don't think he'd be happy playing fewer minutes than he is now(and he shouldn't be, he's a very good 2-way 2C)
3) we will probably have to leave Nylander at wing...this is a player who needs to be in the top 6 and he won't be doing it at centre in this circumstance
4) we need to find good and very cheap options for both 3C and 4C next season, instead of only one of them. hopefully we come up with an entry-level caphit that can play in one of those slots soon.
 
Volcanologist said:
agreed but they're not coming here

of the 3, Tavares is the most realistic by a mile
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Exactly.

And if Karlsson is willing to sign with Toronto in summer 2019, great! We can see what we can do in terms of trades to free up the cap space for him. It is a good problem to have if all the star players are lining up to play for us and we don't have enough cap space. If we have Tavares in the fold, and Karlsson is willing to come, maybe Kadri is expandable (for young assets, obviously not as a giveaway). Maybe even Nylander / Marner is tradeable for some great help.

There's no point in holding the cap space for a potential Karlsson or Doughty signing, even if it LOOKS LIKE they would be willing to come here (Like Stamkos did 3 years ago) ... never mind both of them have about 0% chance of coming to Toronto based on all the signs thus far. In fact, there's not even a guarantee Tavares will come to Toronto. I think there's a higher chance he stays in NYI than he leaves as we speak today. The point is, it is very rare you can add star player level talent to your team for just money. And if they become available, you do it.
 
Volcanologist said:
Signing Tavares would have some ripple effects

1) It will mean a heavier reliance on the Matthews/Tavares lines vs. the 3rd and 4th. Papi and JT will get 19-20+ minutes each
2) we will probably have to trade Kadri. I don't think he'd be happy playing fewer minutes than he is now(and he shouldn't be, he's a very good 2-way 2C)
3) we will probably have to leave Nylander at wing...this is a player who needs to be in the top 6 and he won't be doing it at centre in this circumstance
4) we need to find good and very cheap options for both 3C and 4C next season, instead of only one of them. hopefully we come up with an entry-level caphit that can play in one of those slots soon.
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Yeah, this is the stuff people are wilfully ignoring while talking about getting him at "the right price" and laser-focusing simply on how, in a vacuum, adding Tavares would improve our roster.

Problem is, there's this little thing called the salary cap. And even if you get Tavares at the maximum possible "hometown discount" (which I think is tremendously unlikely, considering Tavares has been grossly underpaid his entire career, but for the sake of argument, we'll roll with that), you're still going to get these ripple effects.

I'd say another likely side-effect of signing Tavares is that you'd probably have to sign one of Marner or Nylander to a shorter-term, lower-dollar "bridge deal", like Tampa Bay did with Kucherov, instead of signing them to a long-term deal. And then when that bridge deal runs out in two or three years and you have to pay them, you'd likely be forced to ship them out of town in the prime of their career for the benefit of keeping a 31 year-old John Tavares.

And something else I'll add---anyone making the argument that "well, you HAVE to jump at the chance to add an elite player WHENEVER you get the opportunity, and regardless of the fit"...well, they clearly haven't learned their lessons from the whole Phil Kessel experience in Toronto. Elite talent or not, the timing and fit of the addition is still extremely important.
 
Ya, "adding elite talent is never a mistake" is clearly not true. Adding elite talent for the wrong price or at the wrong time has absolutely been a mistake many times.
 
LeafGm said:
I'd say another likely side-effect of signing Tavares is that you'd probably have to sign one of Marner or Nylander to a shorter-term, lower-dollar "bridge deal", like Tampa Bay did with Kucherov, instead of signing them to a long-term deal. And then when that bridge deal runs out in two or three years and you have to pay them, you'd likely be forced to ship them out of town in the prime of their career for the benefit of keeping a 31 year-old John Tavares.
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I don't think that is accurate. They have enough cap space to sign Marner, Nylander and Matthews to 8 year big money deals and add. $25 million this offseason, and $36 million the next offseason, completely ignoring the minimum $5-7 million cap increase (so really its more like $30 and $40+ mill respectively). And if you sign someone like Tavares for 7 years than you will literally never be faced with having to resign one of the core 3 with the big UFA contract on the books.

That is exactly why adding an elite free agent makes sense now. Because they DO have the cap space and flexibility to do it.
 
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Didn't Mirtle recently write an article on how they can achieve signing him without it affecting the kids long term



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Artnes said:
Didn't Mirtle recently write an article on how they can achieve signing him without it affecting the kids long term



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Yep

Leafs-Tavares-roster-2019-20-final.png


https://theathletic.com/248317/2018...find-a-way-to-fit-john-tavares-under-the-cap/


And Bettman just announced next year's cap will be $78-82 million. So a projected $81 mill cap in 2019-20 might be a little low. But even if that year is tight, you get $6 million from marleau off the books and the Seattle cap boost in 2020. The Leafs are in amazing cap shape to do whatever they want. Especially with the rate their system has been producing talent.
 
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I think I'm in the no to Tavares camp. It's the skating. The league is just too fast now, and I find this team is at its best when there is speed throughout the lineup. JT is one of the last remaining NHL stars who is a legit average to below average skater. It's a testament to how good his hands and hockey sense are that he's been as successful as he is despite the skating, but if he loses half a step during his next contract it could get ugly in a hurry.
 
leafman101 said:
Trying to shoehorn your plan around needs is how you become Edmonton giving up the opportunity to have better players for a guy like Larsson or Lucic.
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Saying you don't sign players to address specific needs because of what Edmonton did is akin to saying you don't draft high end talent because of what Edmonton did.
 
I don't know that I've ever seen someone try and argue that you should sign the BPA in free agency, regardless of need. Interesting theory, but one that I totally and whole-heartedly disagree with.

When drafting crap-shoot 17/18 year-olds that you're trying to project two, three, four or five years down the line, of course you don't worry about present-day needs.

But when making trades or UFA signings---guys who are established commodities who will be playing for your team right away---it's all about fit, and whether they fill your team's needs.
 
leafman101 said:
No it's not. It's the exact same argument. You draft the BPA regardless of need.
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So, because Edmonton was stupid and tried to address a need with a totally lopsided trade, the Leafs should not try to acquire NHLers that address their needs? Really? Just take any good player that comes along?
 
If you want to maximize your return, you have to make decisions based on value. Its always easy to find cheap spare parts to fill a need. Just look at what the Pens did with their D last year.

But if you are utilizing scarce resources, whether that is cap space or draft picks, you will produce the best results by maximizing value.

Its the same reason why you have to let JVR go. He is a good player, he fills a need, but he doesn't produce good value as a UFA at this stage.
 
BeLeafer said:
It's easy to find a top four RHD?

This isn't the draft.
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No its not easy. But we signed Hainsey for nothing and he has done the job. Much better doing that then signing an Alzner and losing the ability to add a top end piece like Tavares/Karlsson etc. Or worse trading Nylander/Marner for a guy like Larsson.

At the end of the day, the biggest need will always be good players. The teams with the most good players are the best teams.

Teams that chase needs in free agency or trades tend to make bad signing/trades. Its the JFJ/Burkie special. While the teams who target the best players tend to be good teams.
 
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We're just gonna half to agree to disagree on this one. It is precisely the purpose of dipping into the trade or UFA market -- address a weakness. More good players is a little too broad for me.
 
If Zona wins Dahlin, its a no brainer to trade Matthews to them. Get Strome, Dahlin, first rounder in 2019 and Zona gets their cornerstone piece. We get a better D corps than even Nashville.

We play better without Matthews, every time he goes down for an injury. Why? Cause, he doesn't go with the flow as well as most would think . He gets fatigued in some games, he takes other games off. He is a chronic injury king now.

Sign Tavares to replace Matthews(he's still better) get an ELC superstar in Dahlin. Get a future Phil Esposito in Strome and get a first rounder.

Get a Stanley Cup. Oh and have room to sign Doughty as well.
 
Sure, but if you are dipping into the trade/free agent market it should be for cheap/short term additions like Hainsey/Marleau, Plekanec that don't have long term cap consequences and would not affect your ability to keep/add core pieces to the team. Or for those high end core pieces like Tavares. But not anything in between.

Its the exact reason why we have to let players like JVR go, and can't go out on the free agent market to sign second tier players for big money/term even if they fill a need. There is not enough value there.

Just like draft picks have to be reserved for the BPA, your cap dollars should be reserved for the best players.

In a cap era, teams win based on getting the best value out of their cap dollars. You can always find a Hainsey to fill a need. But its not so easy to find players who impact the game like a Tavares. Thats where the value is. Stars and bargains. Stars for a bargain is the best. There is always enough ice time to go around. Its impossible to have too many good forward/dmen with a cap.
 
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leafman101 said:
No it's not. It's the exact same argument. You draft the BPA regardless of need.


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not quite the same.

1.draft picks all cost the same
2.draft picks are not usually projected to immediately help your roster, making the concept of drafting to fill holes on your roster a bit off from the start.
3.prospects are more assets - you can trade them to fill holes as well. it doesn't make any sense to draft a less valuable prospect in any situation.
 
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