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Laine v Matthews

I just want one of these two lovely bastards. If we lose out and are picking third, I'm going to be in a sad state on Saturday night.
 
Leafs 19
Oilers 17
Canucks 14
Blue Jackets 11
Sabres 9
Jets 8
Flames 8
Devils 7
Avalanche 5
Hurricanes 3
Coyotes 3
Sens 3
Habs 2

Ran it a hundredish times, it's either us or the Oilers. Or the Canucks, which would be just vomit-inducing.

On the Laine/Matthews thing, the Finnish guys seem to (over?)state their league is basically miles tougher, their rinks closer to NHL size while the Swiss league is a rec league with much fewer NHLers. So...since they're probably wildly overexaggerating, Matthews is the guy we should take if ONLY because we need a prime centre so, so badly. Laine's shot is insane though, so I wouldn't mind a 20-30 goal guy on the wing with a big body.
 
Laine looks like he could be the next 50 goal guy in the NHL. At this point i like the thought of Matthews as he possesses that 2 way heavy center game we're really missing. Though Laine bring his own ability to put the puck in the net.

Putting personal and team accolades aside would you take a Toews or a Jagr?
 
Well, no, you take Jagr. But if your choice is Toews vs like Rick Nash or even Patrick Kane, then you still take Toews.
Matthew > Laine > anyone else.

So, how about we have Habs-Leafs go 1-2 (in either order, really), and that should really bring us some good arguments for years to come.
 
That ability to shield the puck is Jagr-esque. The rest of the game not so much. Thats an unfair comparison for either player. I think both will be great in their own way. I don't think we can go wrong with either one.
 
Just for the sake of comparison


Jonathon Toews Pre Draft:

NCAA: .93ppg

Auston Matthews Pre Draft

NLA: 1.28 ppg


Now, with that pointed out, there is a fair rebuttal to this. Toews was young for his draft class (his NCAA season was over before he turned 18) and Matthews is old for his (his NLA season started after he turned 18) so let's expand this a little bit to make it more like vs like

17 yrs old

Toews (NCAA): .93ppg
Matthews (USNDTP): 1.93ppg

18 yrs old

Toews (NCAA): 1.35ppg
Matthews (NLA): 1.28ppg


As a 17 yr old, they played against similar levels of competition (USNDTP plays a large chunk of their schedule against NCAA teams, and he was 2.0ppg in 24 of 60 total games vs easier USHL competition but still had staggering numbers as a 17 yr old vs NCAA competition). As an 18 yr old, Matthews performed similarly vs men in a high end european league (equivalent to Liiga, a step down from SHL/KHL/AHL) to what Toews did vs NCAA (18-22 yr old amateur) competition.

I've heard the Toews comparisons too, but Matthews ceiling is a bigger, 90-100 point Toews. Not the the 65 point Toews whose 2 way game is considered so good that he's named among the elite despite not being close to elite offensively.

To put his pre draft production into perspective:

2000: Rick Dipietro (NCAA) .913 SV%
2001: Ilya Kovalchuk (Russia2....so 2 levels below the predecessor to the KHL) 1.15ppg
2002: Rick Nash (OHL) 1.33ppg
2003: MAF (QMJHL) .910 SV%
2004: Ovechkin (RSL) .45ppg
2005: Crosby (QMJHL) 2.71ppg
2006: Johnson (USNDTP) .94ppg
2007: Kane (OHL) 2.5ppg
2008: Stamkos (OHL) 1.72ppg
2009: Tavares (OHL) 1.86ppg
2010: Hall (OHL) 1.86ppg
2011: RNH (WHL) 1.53ppg
2012: Yakupov (OHL) 1.55ppg
2013: Mackinnon (QMJHL) 1.70ppg
2014: Ekblad (OHL) .92ppg
2015: McDavid (OHL) 2.55ppg
2016: Matthews (NLA) 1.28ppg (or 1.93ppg USNDTP if we're going to use the age argument against him....accepting that the 1.93ppg 17 yr old season would be at a disadvantage to the 1/2 yr older Crosby, McDavid, & Kane)

The only guys who put up comparable or better pre draft numbers (which are really hard to directly compare because of different leagues here) in the last 16 years are Crosby, Kane, & McDavid. This idea that Matthews is offensively limited is crazy. He's about as gifted offensively as any 18 yr old prospect that we've seen in the post lockout era.

Even if we take his 17 yr old USNDTP production (putting him at a bit of a disadvantage in his D -1 year for the same reason his year in the NLA gives him a bit of an advantage in a head to head comparison with a prospect who played his D -1 a bit younger than Matthews did) his 1.93 ppg is equivalent or better to Hall & Tavares offensively at that age (USHL production is typically 1.1 to 1 in comparison to CHL production...so his 2 ppg in USHL games would be a pretty good analogue for 1.8ppg in CHL production as what would have been a very young 17 yr old)

Any way you want to slice it, he's among the most offensively gifted prospects to enter the league in this era.
 
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You can't compare usndp to d1. It's not even close.

Not a knock against Mathews, just think it's a bad comparison.

They play against a host of 2nd or 3rd tier national teams (no team Canada and most top 17 year Olds in Europe are with their pro organizations already); us jr a teams (so prob about jr b level) and a host of schools across all the divisions.

Huge difference between that and playing against 18-25 year Olds, many of whom will make pro careers in the nhl across and elsewhere.
 
leafman101 said:
USNDTP U18 All Time Scorers
1. Auston Matthews - 60 gp, 55 gls, 116 pts, 1.93 ppg
2. Phil Kessel - 41 gp, 41 gls, 73 pts, 1.78 ppg
3. Clayton Keller - 62 gp, 37 gls, 107 pts, 1.73 ppg
4. Jack Eichel - 53 gp, 38 gls, 87 pts, 1.64 ppg
5. Patrick Kane - 43 gp, 35 gls, 68 pts, 1.58 ppg
6. Sonny Milano - 58 gp, 29 gls, 86 pts, 1.48 ppg
7. Matthew Tkachuk - 65 gp, 38 gls, 96 pts, 1.48 ppg
8. Jeremy Bracco - 65 gp, 30 gls, 94 pts, 1.45 ppg
9. Kieffer Bellows - 62 gp, 50 gls, 81 pts, 1.31 ppg
10. James Van Reimsdyk - 30 gp, 20 gls, 38 pts, 1.27 ppg

Top U24 seasons in NLA since 1995
1. John Tavares - Age 22 - 28 gp, 17 gls, 42 pts, 1.50 ppg
2. Danny Heatley - Age 23 - 16 gp, 14 gls, 24 pts, 1.50 ppg
3. Tyler Seguin - Age 20 - 29 gp, 25 gls, 40 pts, 1.38 ppg
4. Auston Matthews - Age 18 - 36 gp, 24 gls, 46 pts, 1.28 ppg
5. Rick Nash - Age 20 - 44 gp, 27 gls, 47 pts, 1.07 ppg
6. Logan Couture - Age 23 - 22 gp, 7 gls, 23 pts, 1.05 ppg
Click to expand...
Pretty impressive numbers there. I'm siding with the Matthews brigade, I just don't see how a team can pass him over at #1.
 
zeke said:
those are men he's playing against. they look like boys.

does matthews look like this? (honest question)
Click to expand...

Matthews played against men in the Swiss league and looked impressive. Granted they were Swiss men but that's not his fault.
 
mbow30 said:
You can't compare usndp to d1. It's not even close.

Not a knock against Mathews, just think it's a bad comparison.
Click to expand...

A solid chunk of their schedule is played against good D1 competition. Overall, about 1/3rd of the total schedule. Matthews put up 1.54 ppg against Div 1 NCAA teams during that USNDTP season.

They play against a host of 2nd or 3rd tier national teams (no team Canada and most top 17 year Olds in Europe are with their pro organizations already); us jr a teams (so prob about jr b level) and a host of schools across all the divisions.

Huge difference between that and playing against 18-25 year Olds, many of whom will make pro careers in the nhl across and elsewhere.
Click to expand...

1.54 ppg against the Div 1 clubs he played against in his D -2 season.
 
I'm the idea guy only here...but people should write up a post praising each one of the top 4 picks like that's the guy we got, we always wanted and how great everything is.

We pick the best ones for whoever we end up with.
 
MindzEye said:
A solid chunk of their schedule is played against good D1 competition. Overall, about 1/3rd of the total schedule. Matthews put up 1.54 ppg against Div 1 NCAA teams during that USNDTP season.

1.54 ppg against the Div 1 clubs he played against in his D -2 season.
Click to expand...

For the D1 competition its an exhibition game. The coaches aren't giving the same ice time distribution, line matchups, etc.. as when Toews was playing for North Dakota and it was a game that counted in the standings. The players aren't going with the same emotion either.

Yes its D1 competition, but its like saying scoring in NHL exhibition games is the same as scoring in NHL regular season games. Its not.

That said I do think Matthews has potential to be better than Toews (but i think the wankfest, greatest player in the world shit is overrated with Toews).
 
I know we have people here that swear by the statsheets but there are variables in hockey that can't be measured in a tangible way. Toews is an elite all around #1 center. I would take him on my team in a heartbeat.

I'd be ok with getting the less skilled player in the instance that it makes the team better overall. Its the Ovechkin vs Toews deal where both have had good to great teams but one has been able to win it all where the other has not. Would you take Toews over Ovechkin if just looking at skill? Probably not. As a total package? You can make the argument considering his defensive ability, face offs and such.

I'm happy with either player. In a super duper ideal world you'd have Ovechkin on Toews wing.... or wait Kane. errr Marner on Matthews wing?
 
BKerr said:
For the D1 competition its an exhibition game. The coaches aren't giving the same ice time distribution, line matchups, etc.. as when Toews was playing for North Dakota and it was a game that counted in the standings. The players aren't going with the same emotion either.

Yes its D1 competition, but its like saying scoring in NHL exhibition games is the same as scoring in NHL regular season games. Its not.

That said I do think Matthews has potential to be better than Toews (but i think the wankfest, greatest player in the world shit is overrated with Toews).
Click to expand...

Fair enough, then take his 2 ppg vs USHL competition. Which would roughly project to ~1.8 ppg in the CHL (1.1 to 1 is the pretty widely accepted rough conversion rate). Which is into the Tavares/Hall/Stamkos territory of pre draft prospects....2 seasons prior to draft eligibility.

He's still an elite, elite level of prospect, ranking among one of the top #1 picks of the last 16 years, just outside of the elite elite tier (Crosby, McJesus)
 
Montana said:
They should come up with a word for this.....something very simple, a prefix even.
Click to expand...

LOL Call it what you want but there is more to sports than watching a statsheet and making decisions solely based on their results.
 
The thing is you don't even have to compare Matthres production to other leagues. Essentially every American player in the last decade has come through the USNDP. And Matthews destroyed all of their production. Kane, kessel, eichel, all of them. The he followed that up with being the best player in a pro league at 18 which has never really happened before outside of Crosby and Mcdavid in the NHL and Gretz in the WHA.
 
Leafin' said:
LOL Call it what you want but there is more to sports than watching a statsheet and making decisions solely based on their results.
Click to expand...

Except now those things are becoming tangible with analytics. toews may not score the most but his advanced stats are off the chart. And really for all the flack Toews gets for his production he is top 15 in scoring in the NHL since he came into the league. That is elite production.
 
I know we have people here that swear by the statsheets but there are variables in hockey that can't be measured in a tangible way.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's anyone here who disagrees. But there's a few things to unpack here. First is that there were variables in hockey that we couldn't measure in a tangible way 10 years ago that we can measure in a very tangible way today. There are variables that we can't track and measure the value of today that we'll be able to in 10 years. This is a creeping advancement of knowledge that isn't going to stop, learn to embrace it.

Second. I don't think anyone would discount the value of strong 2 way player, the question is how much value do you put on it? Is a strong 2 way 60 point centre better than a more offensively oriented 80 point centre? How much is elite "2 way" play worth on the scoreboard at the end of the day? season? I mean, once upon a time guys with strong faceoff numbers were considered vitally important to possession hockey, and we've seen that myth dismissed over the last few years. Studies have been done on the value of faceoffs and even the utter dominance of a Patrice Bergeron, who is 2 standard deviations better than just about anyone else in hockey, is only worth a few extra goals a season over an average centre at the dot. How many goals is selke worthy defensive play worth? If a 60 point centre is elite defensively, shouldn't his defensive value have to actually bridge the gap between him and an 80 point centre with average defence?

IMO, there are always individual pieces of great teams that end up over valued by the general public. Toews is an example of one of those imo.
 
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