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Habs Select Mikhail Sergachev 9th Overall; Scouting Report

GrandWazoo said:
I never said that. But with our first rounder success rate, I think we might actually do better trading our first round pick every year for established top 6/top 4 players.
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Seems like a sure way to be mediocre.

If there was no such thing as free agency I'd be on board... but it seems to me that free agency (or pending FAs at the trade deadline for cheap) is the place to pick up those 2nd pairing/line players.
 
GrandWazoo said:
I think the root of our disagreement is in our perceived value of Fowler, I see him as a top2/top4 defenseman (and would be 1st pairing with us and 2nd best defenseman) while you see him as a top 4 borderline top 6. I also like his cap hit of 4M for the next 2 years.
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Fowler is a 3 , not a top pair on a great team . Sure he would be second on our team as we have mediocrity after PK , and way overpaid Petry .
 
I would have been fine dealing our pick for Fowler and Silf (provided they took Emelin to even the contracts). I do think Sergachev is a good pick, and certainly has the potential to be better than Fowler, but his average case is probably a Fowler-level talent, and he won't hit that for 4-5 years.
 
Habspatrol said:
Seems like a sure way to be mediocre.

If there was no such thing as free agency I'd be on board... but it seems to me that free agency (or pending FAs at the trade deadline for cheap) is the place to pick up those 2nd pairing/line players.
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aGiven that only TWICE in the HISTORY of this franchise have we ever drafted better than a top6/top4 player in the first round outside of a top 5 pick (Max and McDo, I'm also willing to include Gainey as a 3rd one, even though he's a 3rd liner), I feel pretty good about my strategy.
 
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UWHabs said:
I would have been fine dealing our pick for Fowler and Silf (provided they took Emelin to even the contracts). I do think Sergachev is a good pick, and certainly has the potential to be better than Fowler, but his average case is probably a Fowler-level talent, and he won't hit that for 4-5 years.
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Someone who gets it.
 
Sergachev has a chance to be a #1 dman in the NHL.

He has all the tools to be that good.

I would not have traded Fowler for the #9 pick unless sergachev, Jost and Keller are all gone by that pick
 
Habspatrol said:
Yeah probably. Cause I don't think either of us think Sifverberg is anything we can't get cheap elsewhere.
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You're basically doing what most do at draft day, overvaluing their pick. You have a potential top pairing dman versus proven, ready now, known quantity like Folwer. You can't say no to that.

It's a common mistake to fall in love with your pick and believe you have hit a homerun. I'll take a triple rather than swing for the fence when this club needs to win now.
 
Demon Blond said:
You're basically doing what most do at draft day, overvaluing their pick. You have a potential top pairing dman versus proven, ready now, known quantity like Folwer. You can't say no to that.

It's a common mistake to fall in love with your pick and believe you have hit a homerun. I'll take a triple rather than swing for the fence when this club needs to win now.
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There's picks that are definitely unknown quantities in the 1st round but this Sergachev pick seems like a can't miss. Some people even said they wouldn't have been surprised if he went as high as #5

I agree with your theory when drafting later in the 1st round when you end up with the MCCarrons and Juulsens but a 9th overall pick is very high
 
DonKay said:
There's picks that are definitely unknown quantities in the 1st round but this Sergachev pick seems like a can't miss. Some people even said they wouldn't have been surprised if he went as high as #5

I agree with your theory when drafting later in the 1st round when you end up with the MCCarrons and Juulsens but a 9th overall pick is very high
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A can't miss #1 defenseman doesn't fall to the 9th pick, think about it for a second.

I still maintain that if, as a rule, you keep your top 5 picks but trade your other first rounders for top6/top4 players you like, there will be some years where it will backfire but you'll end up winning most of the years. Still, for this specific one, a 24 and 25 years old, a top 3 defenseman playing on the left side at a 4M cap hit, and a RW with size who scored 20 goals last year with good 2 way ability, at less than 4M for another 3 years (actually in Silverberg's case, the contract is a bit a downside), filling two needs that we have on the current roster, which is a top 4 LD and a top 6 RW, seems like a no brainer to me, and I like our pick, but it's an unknown and will take a few years to contribute to this team. Like another poster said, his most likely potential is to be about Cam Fowler.
 
DonKay said:
There's picks that are definitely unknown quantities in the 1st round but this Sergachev pick seems like a can't miss. Some people even said they wouldn't have been surprised if he went as high as #5

I agree with your theory when drafting later in the 1st round when you end up with the MCCarrons and Juulsens but a 9th overall pick is very high
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Again, there is historically 23.8% chance of a 9th overall pick to be a top6/top4 player or better : http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

I'll take my chance on 2 100% chances instead.
 
DonKay said:
There's picks that are definitely unknown quantities in the 1st round but this Sergachev pick seems like a can't miss. Some people even said they wouldn't have been surprised if he went as high as #5

I agree with your theory when drafting later in the 1st round when you end up with the MCCarrons and Juulsens but a 9th overall pick is very high
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In 03 we couldn't believe Akos was there. He was a can't miss elite wing.
The stats prove the pick will not yield to expectation a majority of the time. Therefore you make the trade.

Problem is the hype and the moment. GMs and scouts fall in love with these players through the year and the combine process and get carried away. If we check emotion at the door, the deal is a no brainer.
 
Not sure I do it for Fowler alone although it might still be the smart thing to do.

But as proposed, I think I win this deal 8 times out of 10, if not 9.
 
Demon Blond said:
You're basically doing what most do at draft day, overvaluing their pick. You have a potential top pairing dman versus proven, ready now, known quantity like Folwer. You can't say no to that.

It's a common mistake to fall in love with your pick and believe you have hit a homerun. I'll take a triple rather than swing for the fence when this club needs to win now.
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No, you're over valuing secondary players that can be had without giving up a valuable asset.

Fowler is proven... proven to be an alright offensive dman.
 
GrandWazoo said:
A can't miss #1 defenseman doesn't fall to the 9th pick, think about it for a second.

I still maintain that if, as a rule, you keep your top 5 picks but trade your other first rounders for top6/top4 players you like, there will be some years where it will backfire but you'll end up winning most of the years. Still, for this specific one, a 24 and 25 years old, a top 3 defenseman playing on the left side at a 4M cap hit, and a RW with size who scored 20 goals last year with good 2 way ability, at less than 4M for another 3 years (actually in Silverberg's case, the contract is a bit a downside), filling two needs that we have on the current roster, which is a top 4 LD and a top 6 RW, seems like a no brainer to me, and I like our pick, but it's an unknown and will take a few years to contribute to this team. Like another poster said, his most likely potential is to be about Cam Fowler.
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But why wouldn't you just keep the prospect and sin similarly valued players via free agency? Why waste the asset?
 
I wouldn't do the deal. I don't think Silfverberg is enough added compensation. I also think many here are overvaluing Fowler. He's a solid defenseman but come on already, he's not another Subban.
 
Demon Blond said:
In 03 we couldn't believe Akos was there. He was a can't miss elite wing.
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That's definitely a revisionist's history.

The stats prove the pick will not yield to expectation a majority of the time. Therefore you make the trade.

Problem is the hype and the moment. GMs and scouts fall in love with these players through the year and the combine process and get carried away.
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Why do you refuse to address my question? Why not just sign secondary players with similar value to Fowler and Silfverbrg rather than trading a valuable asset?

If we check emotion at the door, the deal is a no brainer.
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If it's such a no brainer it's surprising that it was offered... and rejected.
 
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