Habs Select Mikhail Sergachev 9th Overall; Scouting Report

[GrandWazoo]

But why wouldn't you just keep the prospect and sin similarly valued players via free agency? Why waste the asset?

You make it sounds like it's easy to sign top6/top4 players through free agency without killing your cap space.

If I somehow could sign any players I want through UFA to my cap friendly terms, then yeah, why not? It doesn't work that way though, I would have to massively overpay in cap space for those players, and I might not even get them as I would be competing with 29 other teams.

 

[GrandWazoo]

That's definitely a revisionist's history.



Why do you refuse to address my question? Why not just sign secondary players with similar value to Fowler and Silfverbrg rather than trading a valuable asset?



If it's such a no brainer it's surprising that it was offered... and rejected.

I'd be surprised if Anaheim offered it.

 

[Habspatrol]

I bet Demers and Purcell can be had for similar overall cap hits to Fowler and Silfverberg and bring every bit as much on ice value combined. Plus you keep Sergachev.

I guess we'll see what we end up with via free agency this year.

 

[GrandWazoo]

I wouldn't do the deal. I don't think Silfverberg is enough added compensation. I also think many here are overvaluing Fowler. He's a solid defenseman but come on already, he's not another Subban.

He's a solid top 3, top 2 with us, and he would be top pairing with Subban, which is a need we have right now. Silverberg is a top 6/top 9 right winger with size and two way ability who scored 20 goals last year, filling another need.

I know right now we're all in love with Sergachev, and maybe he will be a top 2 defensemen in the future but chances are he will not.

 

[GrandWazoo]

I bet Demers and Purcell can be had for similar overall cap hits to Fowler and Silfverberg and bring every bit as much on ice value combined. Plus you keep Sergachev.

I guess we'll see what we end up with via free agency this year.

Demers is a RD so we have no interest in it. I also wouldn't be interested in Fowler if he was a RD.

Purcell is going on the wrong side of 30, I'll be curious what he will command.

We'll see what we get in the free agency this year like you said.

 

[Habspatrol]

I guess ultimately we'll compare Sergachev plus our top 2 summer acquisitions to Fowler and Silfverberg and see what looks better.

.

 

[Krustchev]

He's a solid top 3, top 2 with us, and he would be top pairing with Subban, which is a need we have right now. Silverberg is a top 6/top 9 right winger with size and two way ability who scored 20 goals last year, filling another need.

I know right now we're all in love with Sergachev, and maybe he will be a top 2 defensemen in the future but chances are he will not.

GW from late June 2005: "I know right now we're all in love with Price, and maybe he will be a franchise goalie but chances are he will not."

I'm just pointing out the folly with your argument.

 

[Habsy]

By all accounts Sergachev can develop into a #1. Fowler can't.

 

[Krustchev]

By all accounts Sergachev can develop into a #1. Fowler can't.

Yeah but 73.1 per cent chance that he won't . . . which is probably lower than were the odds that Price wouldn't become s franchise goalie. You can't build a team this way.

 

[Habspatrol]

The statistics of each individual draft spot is so useless.

Perhaps 90% of #1s become 1st liners but we were all 100% sure that McDavid was going to be a 1st liner. I'm also 100% sure that Matthews will be a 1st liner and 99% sure about Laine and Eichel.

Sure #9 picks only pan out 27% of the time... but that doesn't mean Sergachev only has a 27% chance. Really... if Columbus takes Puljujarvi like they should have, Edmonton maybe takes Sergachev... would that mean he has a 50% chance of panning out because he went 4th?

 

[GrandWazoo]

GW from late June 2005: "I know right now we're all in love with Price, and maybe he will be a franchise goalie but chances are he will not."

I'm just pointing out the folly with your argument.

1) I said I would not trade away top 5 picks
2) Historically speaking, 23.8% of 9th overall picks develops into a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman or better
3) I accept that it will be a losing proposition at times, but my bet is that I would win that trade more often than not
4) Only twice since the draft was created (53 years) have we turned a non top-5 first round pick into a top 3 forward, top 2 defenseman or starting goalie. Historical odds are largely in my favor.

 

[Krustchev]

Bob Murray is a smart GM. If he actually made this offer, it must mean he's actually an idiot as he's trading two actual NHL players for a 27 per cent chancer.

P.S. Do you think the Leafs would like a redo of their trading of the 21st overall pick in 2005 for actual NHL goalie Andrew Raycroft. I think they would.

 

[GrandWazoo]

The statistics of each individual draft spot is so useless.

Perhaps 90% of #1s become 1st liners but we were all 100% sure that McDavid was going to be a 1st liner. I'm also 100% sure that Matthews will be a 1st liner and 99% sure about Laine and Eichel.

Sure #9 picks only pan out 27% of the time... but that doesn't mean Sergachev only has a 27% chance. Really... if Columbus takes Puljujarvi like they should have, Edmonton maybe takes Sergachev... would that mean he has a 50% chance of panning out because he went 4th?

Not a bit fan of statistics and probabilities I assume.

 

[GrandWazoo]

Bob Murray is a smart GM. If he actually made this offer, it must mean he's actually an idiot as he's trading two actual NHL players for a 27 per cent chancer.

P.S. Do you think the Leafs would like a redo of their trading of the 21st overall pick in 2005 for actual NHL goalie Andrew Raycrift. I think they would.

Is there any proof he made that offer?

 

[Habspatrol]

Not a bit fan of statistics and probabilities I assume.

I actually am... with things that make sense. I pointed out why it doesn't make sense with draft picks.

Only 23.8% of #9 picks pan out, but that doesn't mean that Sergachev only has a 23.8% chance.

 

[Krustchev]

You can't win a Cup without star players, who are typically first round draft picks, even though most first rounders obviously don't become stars. Trading first round picks for safe, actual NHL players is not s recipe to win the Cup. Drafting studs in the first round, as unlikely as that may be, is the better way.

 

[Demon Blond]

You can't win a Cup without star players, who are typically first round draft picks, even though most first rounders obviously don't become stars. Trading first round picks for safe, actual NHL players is not s recipe to win the Cup. Drafting studs in the first round, as unlikely as that may be, is the better way.

Cam Fowler was once that first round stud.

It's not lik we're giving away the pick to charity. We're getting a top pairing dman for PK, we just aren't getting a Norris candidate. What you're suggesting is let's not do the deal bcz Serg might win a Norris.

Are we a better team with Fowler in the lineup for years to come? That's a guarantee today versus speculation for what might be an incrementally slightly better dman 3 or 4 years from now, or might not...so what's our objective?

 

[GrandWazoo]

I actually am... with things that make sense. I pointed out why it doesn't make sense with draft picks.

Only 23.8% of #9 picks pan out, but that doesn't mean that Sergachev only has a 23.8% chance.

It's an historical average, we might have gotten a strong 9th overall, a weak one, or an average one. What do you think it is? Was this year an exceptionally strong and deep draft compared to the others? I don't know, it feels like it may be slightly above average.

What's your projection probabilities for Sergachev? I give you 4 categories:

Top pairing
Second pairing
Third pairing
Depth/Bust

Personally I'd say 10/30/30/30.

 

[budman89]

Yeah but 73.1 per cent chance that he won't . . . which is probably lower than were the odds that Price wouldn't become s franchise goalie. You can't build a team this way.

That could very well be but I think Sergachev was BPA for us where we drafted, and normally I'm all for drafting a forward if we have a top 10 pick...

 

[DonKay]

It's an historical average, we might have gotten a strong 9th overall, a weak one, or an average one. What do you think it is? Was this year an exceptionally strong and deep draft compared to the others? I don't know, it feels like it may be slightly above average.

What's your projection probabilities for Sergachev? I give you 4 categories:

Top pairing
Second pairing
Third pairing
Depth/Bust

Personally I'd say 10/30/30/30.

Top pairing.

When I'm hearing some OHL coaches say that he can potentially play in the NHL in two years or even next year that says alot.

By the way the Oilers apparently had Sergachev at #4.

Had Pujlvari been picked by Columbus the Oilers were gonna take him.

So we're talking about a guy who was potentially top five on some lists.

My expectations is a player in the Seth Jones mold