zeke
Well-known member
that is a terrible argument.
Around the League 2017-2018 Edition
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that is a terrible argument.
number17
Mod Squad
Yes you do, but you can't really 'buy' a #1 G in his prime, so hopefully we just luck out with a trade or one of our goalies in the system develops well enough to push Freddie for his #1 job ... neither is very likely, and at the end of the day, hoping Freddie can clean it up in the playoff and play at average plus in the playoff is the best case scenario for the next few years.
number17
Mod Squad
He can ... it didn't take too long for Stamkos to decide he wanted to stay put. JT's scenario is a little different, cause Tampa was (and is) a good team, and NYI is a basement team.
But I also think it's more likely that not JT stays in NYI. That said, if he does become an UFA, or heck, if he would even listen to offers, it'd be stupid not to make a run for him.
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
leafman101
Well-known member
No. But I also didn't think Larsson was worth Taylor Hall.
Chia's having such a hard time, just trying to help him out.
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
I said #1G in his prime
He's had a lot of time off. He's in his Prime. Just tell him to wear the Team Canada sweater under his Leafs Jersey.
:thumbup:
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
zeke
Well-known member
I just don't agree with grouping them all together as "those guys".
some are legit perennial trophy candidates. Tavares is not.
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
I see it as need based.
A team like Toronto doesn't really need Tavares. Sure it would be nice to add him but they don't need him.
A team like Montreal desperately needs him so it makes sense for them to pay more than the Leafs. It's a matter of need over want.
That said, I agree that there are players rumored available that are a better fit need-wise for Toronto.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Your replies are pure bullshit when your positions have no basis.
zeke
Well-known member
I get it.
You think Tavares is super duper awesome.
I don't. And I've shown exactly why I don't.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Tavares is really good. Paying uber star money for just really good is a bad idea that likely turns sour in the future, and no, you can't just happily ship him off to some dummy if he puts up a few 50-60 point seasons in his early 30's.
This team has needs, and it's not to fill the Tyler Bozak slot in the lineup with a 12 million dollar, non elite centre.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Benning doesn't belong with the first three, and Dorion might not belong with the first 2
Waddell, whatever.
leafman101
Well-known member
I fundamentally disagree with your analysis of the stats. They aren't nearly as far off the leagues best as you suggest, especially if you expand the scope beyond just p/60. Statistically Tavares is in the top 85-90 percentile of forwards of basically everything. Thats a top 30-50 forward at worst. Playing the toughest position. And this is against some of the toughest competition in the league, which typically is a prominent point in your analysts that is completely missing here.
His ixGF/60, Rel Tem Corsi%, Rel Tem xGF% and QoC are all in the 90th percentile over the last 2 years.
He is a hell of a hockey player, and the advanced stats actually show it in a way that points alone never could. He is a top goal scorer, that can play in any situation, against anyone and outplay them. Outscore them, outchance them, out shoot them. He wins his shifts, and he plays some of the toughest shifts in the NHL. On the numbers alone, he should be a player that anyone who values them would want on their team.
Now are there better players in the league? Of course. But not many, and even fewer that you'd have a chance to acquire.
He unquestionably would make this team significantly better. At a magnitude that very few other additions could. And at the end of the day that should be the goal.
His ixGF/60, Rel Tem Corsi%, Rel Tem xGF% and QoC are all in the 90th percentile over the last 2 years.
He is a hell of a hockey player, and the advanced stats actually show it in a way that points alone never could. He is a top goal scorer, that can play in any situation, against anyone and outplay them. Outscore them, outchance them, out shoot them. He wins his shifts, and he plays some of the toughest shifts in the NHL. On the numbers alone, he should be a player that anyone who values them would want on their team.
Now are there better players in the league? Of course. But not many, and even fewer that you'd have a chance to acquire.
He unquestionably would make this team significantly better. At a magnitude that very few other additions could. And at the end of the day that should be the goal.
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leafman101
Well-known member
Of course you can. No one has ever had a problem trading an expensive, declining top center with a great reputation.
Its those middle tier players you get stuck with.
number17
Mod Squad
Are there better players than Tavares? Yes ... about a handful of F's are better than him.
Too bad they aren't available.
So either you spend the $$ on the best UFA you can add (be it Tavares, or Carlson) or you just keep your $$ and keep waiting for that 'perfect guy' who never hits the UFA market.
I mean, the same argument for Tavares, I am sure you can apply the same argument for Carlson. Is he good? yes. Is he among the best Dmen in the league? No. Is he going to live up to his contract? No he won't be the best bang for the buck, just like no other top tier UFA actually comes cheap, but can he help this team? yes.
Too bad they aren't available.
So either you spend the $$ on the best UFA you can add (be it Tavares, or Carlson) or you just keep your $$ and keep waiting for that 'perfect guy' who never hits the UFA market.
I mean, the same argument for Tavares, I am sure you can apply the same argument for Carlson. Is he good? yes. Is he among the best Dmen in the league? No. Is he going to live up to his contract? No he won't be the best bang for the buck, just like no other top tier UFA actually comes cheap, but can he help this team? yes.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I have a difficult time finding a way to slice the numbers up to show that Tavares is enough better than Kadri and Nylander to not just use (less) money on an impact winger or defender.
I think you're glossing over just how expensive Tavares is likely to be and just how much of an albatross a ~90th percentile player who takes a single step back towards the pack is if they're being paid like a top 5 player. You can't just blindly charge into an ~84 million dollar contract without considering the downside and there's absolutely a bunch of potential downside in making Tavares a ~12 million dollar hockey player.
To put it visually for a moment, these were the centres who were better than Tavares 5 on 5 last year on a per minute basis, with all the fun context thrown in for discussion.
Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Malkin, Marchessault, Barzal, Hischier, Kuznetsov, Staal, Stamkos, Point, Scheifele, Getzlaf, Karlsson, Couturier, Monahan, Bergeron, Kopitar.
There's a bunch of really good hockey players on that list I wouldn't pay 12 million a year to either and they were all better than Tavares last year.
I think you're glossing over just how expensive Tavares is likely to be and just how much of an albatross a ~90th percentile player who takes a single step back towards the pack is if they're being paid like a top 5 player. You can't just blindly charge into an ~84 million dollar contract without considering the downside and there's absolutely a bunch of potential downside in making Tavares a ~12 million dollar hockey player.
To put it visually for a moment, these were the centres who were better than Tavares 5 on 5 last year on a per minute basis, with all the fun context thrown in for discussion.
Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Malkin, Marchessault, Barzal, Hischier, Kuznetsov, Staal, Stamkos, Point, Scheifele, Getzlaf, Karlsson, Couturier, Monahan, Bergeron, Kopitar.
There's a bunch of really good hockey players on that list I wouldn't pay 12 million a year to either and they were all better than Tavares last year.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
At 12 million per, I think it would be a much bigger problem than you let on.
You think Chicago could move Toews without taking a ridiculous albatross of a contract back in return?
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