Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Frustrated with the slow bleed in the SP, but generally pleased with the core product launch and it's reception. The NR released today was packed full of as much goodness as you can expect 5 weeks after product launch.
- The end of summer...it really does appear to the true that the cannabis industry sucks from February to September. Don't know why, kind of don't care why, just want it to be over. Any general positivity in the cannabis market can be big
- Announcement of Canadian expansion/partnerships. Tinley brought on an executive (yet another former Cott executive) a couple months ago fairly quietly as their guy to manage the creation of Tinley Canada. There are still a few big LP's that haven't announced beverage plans yet, and licensing Tinley product instead of developing your own is a good way to start the game on 2nd or 3rd base.
- Announcement of US expansion/partnerships. There have been Nevada rumours floating around already, and if NY State goes legal (which looks imminent), it would make a pretty obvious target for Tinley for expansion. There are a number of vertically integrated public and private cannabis companies in the US that licensing a drink line could make sense to.
- Balance sheet improvements. The last released financial report showed a picture of a company that didn't have a product on shelves, but was spending money on getting a product on shelves. According to the NR today, they've hit a bottle neck as the temporary facility they're in until Q1/19 can't handle the initial orders to their new distributors, the re orders from their previous distributor, as well as do initial batch runs of the coconut rum. So where that's a pain in the ass for the near term, those are sales. Sweet, life bringing sales. If those sales numbers are decent looking, and we're given guidance that they're being restrained by temp facility production capacity, I could see that helping
- November Election. Seriously, if federal legalization becomes a hot topic, the entire industry see a heavy bump.
- Permanent Facility. They're currently trying to source more temp capacity to meet current demand, but they've provided guidance to expect sales volume to remain limited until the Long Beach facility is done and running. We've been given "Q1/19" as the expected completion, and were told today in the NR that it's on schedule. That facility is designed to do 10+ million bottles a year. If there is solid demand for the products, and the average retail cost per bottle is 6-30 USD, and the company currently has a market cap of ~35 million USD a year, the math gets pretty exciting in a hurry.
So yeah, frustrated at the share price. Frustrated that I didn't take a bunch of this off the table in the 1.50+ range that I could have done significant rebuys at lower prices on. But the company is doing what they said they would do. By all accounts I've read so far they've made a damn good margarita product, it's selling better than they anticipated and they're on schedule with the permanent facility. It's hard to be cranky at management right now. Still a lot of sledding to do for Tinley to be a true success story, but this is what a success story would look like at this stage of it's development if it was going to happen.
Aberdeen
Well-known member
Thank you for the great synopsis.
Glad you've still got confidence in management. To me, with all these weed stocks, betting on competent management is about all we've got to go on.
Would be nice from them to get some celebrity endorsement, or have their product show up in some pop context. I'm sure their marketing departments are hard at it.
Glad you've still got confidence in management. To me, with all these weed stocks, betting on competent management is about all we've got to go on.
Would be nice from them to get some celebrity endorsement, or have their product show up in some pop context. I'm sure their marketing departments are hard at it.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
You can't be frustrated by not selling and rebuying. I suffer through the same shit with my stuff, but in the end, either you're a trader or you're an investor. And if the latter, then you hold the companies you believe in. It would be far more irritating to sell in the hopes of it going down, and just at that moment it rockets up and you lost out on all the time and patience you devoted to it till that point.
This same thing has happened to me on my holdings. Since January, I could have sold for significant gains, rebought at lower than even my initial purchases, rode it up to even higher levels, and sold and rebought again. Three times over. I mean, ****, I could have made enough from the gains to buy everything back AND open an equivalent position in an additional company. It burns me to see the stuff rise and drop.
But one thing I notice is that, over time, when it drops, it doesn't drop quite as far as the last time it dropped, and so the floor gradually moves higher. Which is cool because I feel like I'm actually noticing a nice graph taking shape through the misery of the lows and exuberance of the highs. As long as it all just keeps on moving upwards over time, I'm not going to let myself lose too much sleep over how much money could have been made through perfectly timing and predicting the market.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Logically I know this to be true, but at one point I had slightly into the 7 figures in Tinley stock and seriously considered pulling the pin. Had I pulled the pin and I missed another 3-5 bag move upwards from there, I'd be crying myself to sleep at night on pillows full of money, nobody should be feeling bad for me. It's gone from 1.98 a share at it's ATH to .55-60. So yeah, while I believe in the management group and am generally pleased with execution on stated goals, it still digs at me a bit that I didn't take a big chunk off the table as I considered at the time.
Yeah, I'm definitely not disagreeing with your outlook here, it really is the right way to look at investing in this space imo. Trading and investing are not the same thing and while I do dabble in trading, I still look at the industry as being in it's global infancy and well placed investments as being very early in their growth state.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I will say this much though. Being so intimately involved in the markets for the past two years has taken a toll. I'm constantly checking on prices during the day, oftentimes staring at things and thinking about strategies for lord knows how long, reading anything I can find on the companies I own or am interested in, and losing my life when the market dips violently and peeing myself in joy when it jolts up.
This is no way to live. I spend a lot of my mornings on this stuff, and only when the markets close (for me, 1 pm) can I get enough of my focus back to make a major dent at work, and then I end up staying really late at the office to make up for it. I just can't seem to not look. For one thing, I'm constantly nervous about some crazy world event that'll destroy everything in the markets, but moreso, I'm just so interested and so mesmerized by watching the ticker. It's the most psychologically and emotionally draining thing that I've ever encountered. It's the one thing I can't rationalize and put to rest in my head, and it totally exhausts me in combination with all my work and personal obligations. But I honestly also love it to death when it's good. It's the ultimate unrelenting mind****.
This is no way to live. I spend a lot of my mornings on this stuff, and only when the markets close (for me, 1 pm) can I get enough of my focus back to make a major dent at work, and then I end up staying really late at the office to make up for it. I just can't seem to not look. For one thing, I'm constantly nervous about some crazy world event that'll destroy everything in the markets, but moreso, I'm just so interested and so mesmerized by watching the ticker. It's the most psychologically and emotionally draining thing that I've ever encountered. It's the one thing I can't rationalize and put to rest in my head, and it totally exhausts me in combination with all my work and personal obligations. But I honestly also love it to death when it's good. It's the ultimate unrelenting mind****.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Honestly, I don't see how one can view a penny stock like TNY as an "investment". It's a punt...with a binary outcome. I hope it does gangbusters (like FIZZ), since I own some but there's nothing but a busload of faith that separates it from all the other players (both noobs and established operators like Heineken) trying to make "booze" with THC.
I hope the cannabis sector has a good August. July was a mini bear raid. TLRY was the poster boy -- IPO'd at 22, shot up over 30, fell back to 23.
Thank God for IAN and a few other names that steadied my folio.
As for the broader markets, I love what FB did. They disrupted themselves and are looking long term beyond the next few quarters. I didn't add to my very small position because I wrongly thought the market would keep them in the penalty box for a few months. Nope. +$15 in about a week. Though, I'm banking on getting another chance.
@LOF I totally get your angst. I worked late for years, compensating for my more exciting market "job". Believe it or not, it gets easier. You get better at picking your spots, and not dreading a crash every few weeks. The key for me was separating accounts -- a RRSP that I barely look at, a TFSA that is a mix of long term and 2-3 week holds, and a speculative trading account where I daytrade (when time permits) under pretty strict stop loss entries to take the emotion out of my plan. ie traded Soybean futures last night, woke up to a 500 profit this morning (was willing to risk $150)
I still like my ROKU idea. Earnings tonight were pretty good. They got a real shot at being the agnostic device that people use to stream all their NFLX/DIS/ESPN apps
I hope the cannabis sector has a good August. July was a mini bear raid. TLRY was the poster boy -- IPO'd at 22, shot up over 30, fell back to 23.
Thank God for IAN and a few other names that steadied my folio.
As for the broader markets, I love what FB did. They disrupted themselves and are looking long term beyond the next few quarters. I didn't add to my very small position because I wrongly thought the market would keep them in the penalty box for a few months. Nope. +$15 in about a week. Though, I'm banking on getting another chance.
@LOF I totally get your angst. I worked late for years, compensating for my more exciting market "job". Believe it or not, it gets easier. You get better at picking your spots, and not dreading a crash every few weeks. The key for me was separating accounts -- a RRSP that I barely look at, a TFSA that is a mix of long term and 2-3 week holds, and a speculative trading account where I daytrade (when time permits) under pretty strict stop loss entries to take the emotion out of my plan. ie traded Soybean futures last night, woke up to a 500 profit this morning (was willing to risk $150)
I still like my ROKU idea. Earnings tonight were pretty good. They got a real shot at being the agnostic device that people use to stream all their NFLX/DIS/ESPN apps
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
two things to consider
you don't have to sell the whole bundle...you can scale in and out of small chunks whenever you feel things are getting stretched (in either direction)
of course...it's incredibly hard to time the market but then again, selling stock should not be seen as a final divorce. You can always get back in, even at a higher price. Better to see selling as a form of insurance...it protects your capital and often that comes at a cost.
Let me share a painful story. Long time ago, I bought Apple at $50 (pre 7-1 split, so $7 in today's price). It more than doubled quickly. I had a mental stop loss to protect my gains. I sold it around $120. I felt like a genius as I watched it slide around 20%. Now, of course, the stock has climbed to around $1400. Ouch. My mistake wasn't selling the stock. It was not getting back in when the story changed.
Habsy
Yes, I'm kidding people.
Elaborate on your like of Roku if you don’t mind. I own 100 shares and haven’t really done anything because it’s been moving north for awhile now. Do you think it will continue? It’s already spiked today.
I’m not an avid trader, I have my play fund and do dabble but the majority of my portfolio is long term. Blue chips and funds.
I’m not an avid trader, I have my play fund and do dabble but the majority of my portfolio is long term. Blue chips and funds.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
The exciting portion of the Roku story is not the device, but the platform. Roku sell its viewer data to TV networks (Fox, Viacom and Turner are existing clients) so they can offer marketers better-targeted ads on their streaming-video platform.
TV ads have always been wildly inefficient. ie.... I've watched thousands of truck ads while watching NFL football, with no intention of ever buying a truck.
Roku is capturing a greater share of advertising budgets .. This quarter saw platform revs up 96% Year over Year. If they execute what's in front of them, they can be a multi hundred stock in a few years...or will be a buyout candidate.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
The latest TVs have many of the apps like Netflix, CBS, and HBO already preloaded on the tv.
Isn’t Roku going to become obsolete soon? Why does anyone need it as TVs get smarter and better and cheaper (the older or lesser models that still will have preloaded apps)?
Isn’t Roku going to become obsolete soon? Why does anyone need it as TVs get smarter and better and cheaper (the older or lesser models that still will have preloaded apps)?
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
The latest TVs have many of the apps like Netflix, CBS, and HBO already preloaded on the tv.
Isn’t Roku going to become obsolete soon? Why does anyone need it as TVs get smarter and better and cheaper (the older or lesser models that still will have preloaded apps)?
Isn’t Roku going to become obsolete soon? Why does anyone need it as TVs get smarter and better and cheaper (the older or lesser models that still will have preloaded apps)?
UWHabs
Well-known member
Personally I kind of hate the smart TVs, since their apps almost always suck and aren't as good as the specialized streaming devices (Roku or chromecasts). But yeah, with most TVs having all that stuff built in, hard to really think that any of those streaming devices will be able to take over. Probably the best shot for them would be to essentially get bought out by Sony or Samsung and have their products built into the new batch of TVs.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Smart TV ecosystems are generally terrible. As well, there are still a ton of budget manufacturers who don't bother with adding smart features and will continue cranking out 60-70 inch beasts for 600-900 retail without those features well into the future. I own a Roku stick and with some further development into their app ecosystem, it would be pretty ****ing perfect. Travels brilliantly.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I loaded up on calls for the earnings run-up. Sold a third of them yesterday (just to be safe)...sold the rest of them at the close today but rolled some of those profits into September calls. It could easily tack another 10 points in short order.
I got a core position of shares long term. Could be a monster 3-4 yrs from now.