Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
They don't?
The only guys with similar QoC and better outcomes are widely considered to be the tippy top as far as elite defensive defenders go. Even if we ignore usage for a second, the guys with better controlled entry numbers are:
Vlasic
Braun
Doughty
Santini
Slavin
Morrissey
Ekblad
Yandle
Yandle is the only guy there who doesn't have an outstanding reputation on the defensive side of the puck. Rielly's numbers are better than Hedman, Chara, Giordano, Edler, Niskanen....all guys with outstanding defensive reputations.
If you're not going to call that elite, cool. But it's not what you suggested it is, which is having a hard time managing transition defence.
Yeah, I'm not aware of it being broken down like that. Though I'd expect that Rielly would score higher in the less structured attempts to break into our zone (broken plays in the neutral zone, scramble faceoffs, etc) because of his skating ability.
Long story made short though, the good analytic pieces I've seen written over the last year suggest that Rielly has turned into a very good defender on the puck, and is still dodgy away from it (and by dodgy, I mean average. Not average for a #1 defender, but pure average). A bit of google fu would probably find the blog posts. They weren't from arcane sources.
They don't?
The only guys with similar QoC and better outcomes are widely considered to be the tippy top as far as elite defensive defenders go. Even if we ignore usage for a second, the guys with better controlled entry numbers are:
Vlasic
Braun
Doughty
Santini
Slavin
Morrissey
Ekblad
Yandle
Yandle is the only guy there who doesn't have an outstanding reputation on the defensive side of the puck. Rielly's numbers are better than Hedman, Chara, Giordano, Edler, Niskanen....all guys with outstanding defensive reputations.
If you're not going to call that elite, cool. But it's not what you suggested it is, which is having a hard time managing transition defence.
Yeah, I'm not aware of it being broken down like that. Though I'd expect that Rielly would score higher in the less structured attempts to break into our zone (broken plays in the neutral zone, scramble faceoffs, etc) because of his skating ability.
Long story made short though, the good analytic pieces I've seen written over the last year suggest that Rielly has turned into a very good defender on the puck, and is still dodgy away from it (and by dodgy, I mean average. Not average for a #1 defender, but pure average). A bit of google fu would probably find the blog posts. They weren't from arcane sources.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
I don't think these numbers refute my claim because they blend in a whole lot of stuff that's not related to transition rushes. They are a good indicator for sure, but it doesn't conclusively (or even convincingly) tell the tale.
You've got a bunch of guys who have 90%+ level comp. The results show him as average in this group. What happens with a wider group? I dunno.
I don't think these numbers refute my claim because they blend in a whole lot of stuff that's not related to transition rushes. They are a good indicator for sure, but it doesn't conclusively (or even convincingly) tell the tale.
You've got a bunch of guys who have 90%+ level comp. The results show him as average in this group. What happens with a wider group? I dunno.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
So your argument is that transition rushes are special? Yeah man, I don't think that one holds up well at all.
I think you're seeing what you want to see here tbh. If Rielly was what you claim defensively, he would be getting hammered against the usage he gets and that's just not the case.
A few things here:
- These are the 24 defenders that face the toughest usage in the league according the QoC. Rielly is 9th among the 24 in this, that's above average (avergage score among the group is 66.6%) among what is already an elite group.
- How far do you want the group extended to try to prove the point? The difference between Rielly's usage (98th percentile) and even the next handful of defender not included in this list is pretty significant. If a guy with 80th percentile usage had a marginally better % would you actually consider him superior. When guys like Victor Hedman, Chara, Stanley Cup winning shutdown defender Matt Niskanen, Mark Giordano, etc face easier competition with lesser results, what exactly is the point in dragging the next tier of guys into this? Fwiw, the next tier of guys includes names like Ristolainen, Keith, Vatanen, McD, Pietroangelo, Ceci, Ellis, Johnson, Dumba, Alzner, etc. If a few of them were slightly better on a percentage basis, would it really change anything? You would still be looking at the elite level defensive defenders (by usage) in the NHL and Rielly would still show well among that broader group.
So your argument is that transition rushes are special? Yeah man, I don't think that one holds up well at all.
I think you're seeing what you want to see here tbh. If Rielly was what you claim defensively, he would be getting hammered against the usage he gets and that's just not the case.
A few things here:
- These are the 24 defenders that face the toughest usage in the league according the QoC. Rielly is 9th among the 24 in this, that's above average (avergage score among the group is 66.6%) among what is already an elite group.
- How far do you want the group extended to try to prove the point? The difference between Rielly's usage (98th percentile) and even the next handful of defender not included in this list is pretty significant. If a guy with 80th percentile usage had a marginally better % would you actually consider him superior. When guys like Victor Hedman, Chara, Stanley Cup winning shutdown defender Matt Niskanen, Mark Giordano, etc face easier competition with lesser results, what exactly is the point in dragging the next tier of guys into this? Fwiw, the next tier of guys includes names like Ristolainen, Keith, Vatanen, McD, Pietroangelo, Ceci, Ellis, Johnson, Dumba, Alzner, etc. If a few of them were slightly better on a percentage basis, would it really change anything? You would still be looking at the elite level defensive defenders (by usage) in the NHL and Rielly would still show well among that broader group.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
You're reading the chart wrong bro. Edler is the worst of that group. He's probably given up a bit of gap as he's gotten older and lost a touch of foot speed. Also doesn't help that the league has gotten smaller and faster the last 3-4 years.
You're reading the chart wrong bro. Edler is the worst of that group. He's probably given up a bit of gap as he's gotten older and lost a touch of foot speed. Also doesn't help that the league has gotten smaller and faster the last 3-4 years.
Deckie007
Well-known member
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
Well shit. I forgot red = bad. Wonder how much of it has to do with defensive systems as well.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
I think that pretty much all systems are going to prioritize limiting controlled zone entries for the opposition, and that a lot of of limiting a zone entry is gap control in the neutral zone. With that said, back pressure can play a pretty significant role in forcing dump ins as well, so yeah I could see system (a deep, aggressive forechecking system is going to create less back pressure on successful opposition defensive zone exits I'd think) playing a pretty significant factor potentially. Not enough to make a guy giving up 80%+ to be middle of the pack or anything, but enough to move the needle anyway.
I think that pretty much all systems are going to prioritize limiting controlled zone entries for the opposition, and that a lot of of limiting a zone entry is gap control in the neutral zone. With that said, back pressure can play a pretty significant role in forcing dump ins as well, so yeah I could see system (a deep, aggressive forechecking system is going to create less back pressure on successful opposition defensive zone exits I'd think) playing a pretty significant factor potentially. Not enough to make a guy giving up 80%+ to be middle of the pack or anything, but enough to move the needle anyway.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
Some info on Rasmus Sandin's contract, from a reporter over in Sweden.
At the moment, in public at least, Sandin had been telling reporters after the draft that he intended to leave the OHL and play in Sweden next season. But according to this reporter, there is no "European assignment clause" in the entry-level deal Sandin signed with Toronto, so it'll ultimately be up to them where he plays next year.
Something else to make note of is that Sandin intended to play for Timothy Liljegren's old SHL team, Rögle. And last year, rather than entrust Liljegren's development to Rögle, the Leafs opted to play Timmy in the AHL as an 18 year-old. So while I don't necessarily think they'll have Sandin jump into the AHL as a teenager too, I'll be a little surprised if they send him back to Rögle, who as expected were an awful team last year.
Some info on Rasmus Sandin's contract, from a reporter over in Sweden.
At the moment, in public at least, Sandin had been telling reporters after the draft that he intended to leave the OHL and play in Sweden next season. But according to this reporter, there is no "European assignment clause" in the entry-level deal Sandin signed with Toronto, so it'll ultimately be up to them where he plays next year.
Something else to make note of is that Sandin intended to play for Timothy Liljegren's old SHL team, Rögle. And last year, rather than entrust Liljegren's development to Rögle, the Leafs opted to play Timmy in the AHL as an 18 year-old. So while I don't necessarily think they'll have Sandin jump into the AHL as a teenager too, I'll be a little surprised if they send him back to Rögle, who as expected were an awful team last year.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
Some shitty prospect related news---2016 2nd round pick Yegor Korshkov will once again miss at least half his KHL season to injury.
Not too much out there in terms of details, but it's a shoulder injury suffered in his 2nd game of the season, and the team's reporting it'll keep him out until mid-December.
Some shitty prospect related news---2016 2nd round pick Yegor Korshkov will once again miss at least half his KHL season to injury.
Not too much out there in terms of details, but it's a shoulder injury suffered in his 2nd game of the season, and the team's reporting it'll keep him out until mid-December.
Iknowenuff
Banned
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
That sucks, my "inside" source says the Leafs are still hopeful of him turning out well. They were very, very high on him at one time. They thought they had a steal. He is still young. He reminds me a bit of Antropov, rangy, talented, but injury prone.
That sucks, my "inside" source says the Leafs are still hopeful of him turning out well. They were very, very high on him at one time. They thought they had a steal. He is still young. He reminds me a bit of Antropov, rangy, talented, but injury prone.
oscarheyman
Well-known member
Re: Leafs' Prospect Discussion Thread!
I think it part that and also part he had a tendancy to mentally 'check out' these past few years (given the three stooges errr management in charge it's hard not to see why). Course a player deliberately not playing at his best for a period of time but be another reason not to acquire him.
I think it part that and also part he had a tendancy to mentally 'check out' these past few years (given the three stooges errr management in charge it's hard not to see why). Course a player deliberately not playing at his best for a period of time but be another reason not to acquire him.
