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OT: American Politics

JohnnyHolmes said:
I don't care about the polls. They are complete BS. The media is just lying to the people, and not many seem to care.

They've been caught. There is probably more damaging information on the way as well.

People actually show up at Trump events, and the media tries to make it look like anyone is at a Hillary rally and of course pumps her tires 24/7 while smearing Trump.

This is what is happening. It's not tinfoil hat territory. There is evidence. The media are the DNC's lapdogs.

Proven.
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If there was an Oscar for trolling, this post right here would win it for you. Kudos.
 
I fail to see how mainstream media being complicit in giving Hillary a hand equates to polls being that off.
 
Habsy said:
Well, I suspect Johnny will then point to the latest IBD poll which has been the closest the past two elections and has Trump up 1. That one has me scratching my head because they're usually pretty good.
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polling averages polling averages polling averages.

and then take an average of the polling averages.
 
I agree, although the most recent Washington post poll asked 9% more democrats. I'm in the camp that believes he's down 6-7 points.
 
of course, better than the polls is just following the money - look where each campaign is buying ads and campaigning. that tells you what their internal polling is telling them.
 
Habsy said:
I agree, although the most recent Washington post poll asked 9% more democrats. I'm in the camp that believes he's down 6-7 points.
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9% more people self identifying as dems than pubs is about right at the moment.
 
The Trump campaign was admitting they're down today. I don't get where Johnny is coming from except trolling.
 
I've got a 12 pack of beer on Clinton at 440 Electoral Votes or more.

The best political data guy I know has $50 on 450+

According to a senior Las Vegas political writer today, the Democrats have a lead in early voting in Clark County by 28%of the vote.

The Democrats have out-registered the GOP in Florida by 60,000+ voters.

The size of the wipeout that's coming could be seismic.
 
JohnnyHolmes said:
These polls are meaningless.

Nov. 8 is the only poll that matters, and on that day, America will be great again.
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You do realize they're estimating 40% of the electorate will have voted by then right? I'm going tomorrow, want it over with.
 
Also, just worth noting, only three swing states have same-day voter registration: Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire.

Which means internal GOP polls that show Clinton in the lead in states like Georgia and Arizona, can't be countered by Trumpers just showing up on election day.

(The most delicious part, of course, is that the Republicans worked to eliminate same-day registration in most states).
 
IrishWolfman said:
I've got a 12 pack of beer on Clinton at 440 Electoral Votes or more.

The best political data guy I know has $50 on 450+

According to a senior Las Vegas political writer today, the Democrats have a lead in early voting in Clark County by 28%of the vote.

The Democrats have out-registered the GOP in Florida by 60,000+ voters.

The size of the wipeout that's coming could be seismic.
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No way she gets 440. None.
 
Habsy said:
No way she gets 440. None.
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My reach states are South Carolina and Missouri (19 EVs)

But if she wins everything Obama won in 2008 plus Arizona (currently Clinton +3), Georgia (currently tied, though GOP internals have her ahead) and Texas (currently Trump +3), that gets her to 424.

Also Clinton's data operation dwarfs Trump. My money's that if she's within 5 points of him in any state going into Election Day, she has a 50/50 shot of winning the state.
 
I'll bet you $1000 on it. No way she gets 440. None. I know what they're saying but she won't win Texas.
 
I mean she's polling in the margin of error there and if there's a wave of latino voters the polls may have a hard time seeing it.
 
Habsy said:
I'll bet you $1000 on it. No way she gets 440. None. I know what they're saying but she won't win Texas.
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I just want to leave you with this (and if my bank account was 5K bigger than it is right now, I'd take you up on that bet).

Hispanics make up more than 30 percent of the population in Texas. If they represent the same percentage of voters and they do of the general population, at Trump's current levels of support in that community (approximately 10-15 percent). He could very easily lose Texas.
 
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