OT: The News Thread

[MindzEye]

Economics is not a pure science with entirely predictable outcomes. Different and conflicting schools of economics will predict different results based on the same data. Unexpected results and re-analysis of the reasons for those results are the norm in this field.

Anyone acting like they can say with complete certainty how this will play out is fooling themselves. Not suggesting the exercise is fruitless, just that arbitrary stances ignore reality.

That's fair. We can only apply whatever your pet theories are to what we think are the current facts on the ground. But there's a pretty good reason that there's a near consensus among economists on this. If a consensus of meteorologist tells you that there's 100mm of heavy rain coming this weekend, you don't look up at the sky on Wednesday, see the sun, call bullshit and ignore it. You pack an umbrella because they're probably right.

I mean, if we're going to talk about the different schools of thought on this, sure the Austrian School thinks that any time you remove a layer of government intervention is spurs growth...but the Austrians have been really wrong, like super wrong about everything since 2008. Criticism of Brexit has reached across the aisles here. Keynesians, Freidmanites, etc all seem to be on board here.

 

[Altair]

True, but we know a few things here

1) Brussels has a ton of incentive to turn the screws on the UK
2) Though it's one of the largest economies in the world, the UK is the minnow in this negotiation. If the EU are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face (which there's a lot of talk of, if for no other reason than to scare off future exits), they'll barely notice it.

You speak of the EU as a homogeneous entity. It's not, and there are a lot of countries with a lot to lose if their bilateral trade with the EU is interrupted. Would companies in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland just accept being told to take one on the chin because the EU was feeling vindictive?

Because Brussels' intent is to make it poor for UK business as a warning. I mean, they don't even need to come to terms on a free trade deal and just let them exit.

Making this an easy process would set a horrible precedent for the future, if your goal is to keep the EU together. Give the UK a good deal and you may as well start tearing the whole thing down. Every time there's a isolationist/populist movement in an EU country, there will be a push for said country to leave the Union. Kind of defeats the purpose of the whole endeavour.

And this is why I hate the EU. It cannot be held together by the benefits of being a member, by the goodwill of it's citizens, so it must be held together by fear and threats of economic ruin. What a lovely organization. Want to leave, sure, but we will try to **** you if you do. Sounds like a vindictive spouse.

Meh, you wouldn't know an accurate prediction if it teabagged you.

Maybe if you could make one I would be more likely to listen to you.

Brexit wont happen

Trump wont win.

Just stop. I think you're jinxing things at this point.

 

[Altair]

True, but we know a few things here

1) Brussels has a ton of incentive to turn the screws on the UK
2) Though it's one of the largest economies in the world, the UK is the minnow in this negotiation. If the EU are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face (which there's a lot of talk of, if for no other reason than to scare off future exits), they'll barely notice it.

You speak of the EU as a homogeneous entity. It's not, and there are a lot of countries with a lot to lose if their bilateral trade with the EU is interrupted. Would companies in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland just accept being told to take one on the chin because the EU was feeling vindictive?

Because Brussels' intent is to make it poor for UK business as a warning. I mean, they don't even need to come to terms on a free trade deal and just let them exit.

Making this an easy process would set a horrible precedent for the future, if your goal is to keep the EU together. Give the UK a good deal and you may as well start tearing the whole thing down. Every time there's a isolationist/populist movement in an EU country, there will be a push for said country to leave the Union. Kind of defeats the purpose of the whole endeavour.

And this is why I hate the EU. It cannot be held together by the benefits of being a member, by the goodwill of it's citizens, so it must be held together by fear and threats of economic ruin. What a lovely organization. Want to leave, sure, but we will try to **** you if you do. Sounds like a vindictive spouse.

Meh, you wouldn't know an accurate prediction if it teabagged you.

Maybe if you could make one I would be more likely to listen to you.

Brexit wont happen

Trump wont win.

Just stop. I think you're jinxing things at this point.

 

[MindzEye]

You speak of the EU as a homogeneous entity. It's not, and there are a lot of countries with a lot to lose if their bilateral trade with the EU is interrupted. Would companies in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland just accept being told to take one on the chin because the EU was feeling vindictive?

It is a homogeneous entity when it requires unanimity to sign a trade deal.

And this is why I hate the EU. It cannot be held together by the benefits of being a member, by the goodwill of it's citizens, so it must be held together by fear and threats of economic ruin. What a lovely organization. Want to leave, sure, but we will try to **** you if you do. Sounds like a vindictive spouse.

I think we've long passed the point where the common voter actually understands what good governance or political organization looks like.

Maybe if you could make one I would be more likely to listen to you.

Brexit wont happen

Trump wont win.

Just stop. I think you're jinxing things at this point.

I give people too much credit when I expect them to know when they're heading for a cliff. I expect people to do the smart thing and hit the brakes, it's my blind spot.

So maybe you're right, to paraphrase Mencken: "Nobody has ever gone broke betting on the stupidity of people." I should probably let that counsel me more often but I'm trying to avoid becoming a full blow misanthrope before the age of 40.

 

[Altair]

It is a homogeneous entity when it requires unanimity to sign a trade deal.

Ok, sure, but when the EU collectively cuts off it's nose to spite it's face in this regard, just think of the people who remain in the EU who will effected by this and their industries, supply chains, employment, profits, are negatively effected by this most, who do you think they will blame? The Brits who want a fair trade deal, or the Brussels who wants to spite them?

I think we've long passed the point where the common voter actually understands what good governance or political organization looks like.

Maybe, but unless you want to rid the world of democracy, the will of the people is the best way to go.

I give people too much credit when I expect them to know when they're heading for a cliff. I expect people to do the smart thing and hit the brakes, it's my blind spot.

So maybe you're right, to paraphrase Mencken: "Nobody has ever gone broke betting on the stupidity of people." I should probably let that counsel me more often but I'm trying to avoid becoming a full blow misanthrope before the age of 40.

You expect people to do what you think is the smart thing.

There is no universal smart thing. there are simply different positions with different levels of risks and benefits depending on what one thinks is a priority at the moment.

It's condescending to look at a group of people and simply write them off as stupid because they didn't do what YOU think is the smart thing. Their priorities a may be different, their concerns may be different, and in the terms of brexit, if you look at one of the top concerns among the british people, immigration was a top concern for over a third of them. Not the economy, immigration. So Brexit was well worth it for them, especially if the economic impact can be mitigated. So how is that stupid for them?

 

[Altair]

Good news in the EU dying a quick death front.

http://business.financialpost.com/f...evant-than-ever-and-europeans-have-had-enough

A shrinking EU could begin to materialize within a year. In France, where 61 per cent of people have an unfavourable view of the EU, a national election in April will pit the National Party’s anti-immigrant Marine Le Pen, who wants to exit the EU, against the Republican Party’s anti-immigrant François Fillon, who merely wants to gut an EU he says “at best is inefficient, useless.”

In the Netherlands, where voters scuppered a proposed pact between the EU and Ukraine last year, the Party for Freedom’s anti-immigrant, anti-EU Geert Wilders is a heavy favourite to win the national election in March.




In Italy, where the prime minister resigned last year after losing a referendum to the anti-immigrant, anti-euro Five Star Movement, some expect a snap election to be called that could see the Five Star Movement heading the country.

Whether countries face imminent elections or not, anti-immigrant, anti-EU sentiment is rising rapidly across all of Europe, with anti-establishment parties either in the lead or closing fast on traditional parties. Even in Germany, the biggest economic beneficiary of the EU system and its last bedrock supporter, the anti-immigrant, anti-euro Alliance for Germany bested Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party in her home province last year, leading some to speculate it could be a shock winner in elections expected late this year.

Europeans are uniting, not around the banner of a united Europe, but in demands that the European Union be diminished or be gone. A Pew poll last year of 10 EU countries found only a median of 51 per cent still favoured the EU, with support dropping fast from the previous year.

The EU grew rapidly to its current 28-country size, and was able to convince so many countries to surrender their national sovereignty, for one reason only — the lure of gaining access to its ever-larger trade cartel. With the loss of the U.K. — the EU’s largest economy after Germany — and its loss of stature in the new U.S. administration, the EU no longer looks a winner. It has become a sclerotic, socialistic economy that generates low economic growth and needs perpetual bailouts of its weaker members.

Excellent.

 

[TimHorton]

If there's one thing history has taught us, it's that a divided and looking out for itself Europe is always a good thing!

 

[Altair]

If there's one thing history has taught us, it's that a divided and looking out for itself Europe is always a good thing!

If I had a choice of a well functioning European Union that wasn't overregulated, wasn't intrusive, wasn't hampered by low growth, wasn't overruling national parliaments, wasn't forcing refugees on nations that don't want them, wasn't threatening nations that want to leave with painful economic measures, I would gladly support that EU.

But for that EU to come to pass it would need serious reform. The EU has not shown any indication that it wants to reform itself, and after the Brexit vote, it seems even more entrenched in it's own dysfunctional ways. With that being the case, I would much rather it collapse.

More and more people all over Europe have negative opinions about the EU, more and more people dislike it, dislike how it's run, dislike how the bloc known for it's economic benefits is struggling with sub 1 percent GDP growth, dislike how the EU is forcing refugees on them. Instead of addressing this the EU just tells people to shut up and deal with it. Why would anyone support a organization that doesn't even care about the people it's suppose to be serving?

 

[Habsy]

If there's one thing history has taught us, it's that a divided and looking out for itself Europe is always a good thing!

For arms dealers...

 

[Altair]

For arms dealers...

Et tu, Habsy?

This is actually craziest thing I've heard, that somehow the EU is holding Europe together and without it there would be nothing but endless was between European nation states.

Fact, for decades before the EU there was peace, there were closer relations, and a single military alliance that most European nations were a part of, not including the eastern soviet bloc. Today, every European nation of relevance, and many which are not, are part of NATO, hold joint exercises, etc.

Also, unlike in centuries past, there are no European empires facing with conflicting interests with other European empires in Europe today that would lead to increased tensions and war.

Finally, nukes. Unlike some despot in North Korean or a dictator in China with no regard for their own citizens, European nations understand the principles of Mutually Assured Destruction well.

So can every stop with this idea that the only thing keeping us from war in Europe is the dysfunctional European Union? It's possibly the most insulting thing I've ever heard regarding Europe and its citizens.

 

[Habsy]

It was a joke bubba. Like everything else there are good and bad things about the EU.

 

[TimHorton]

This is actually craziest thing I've heard, that somehow the EU is holding Europe together and without it there would be nothing but endless was between European nation states.

So we're not a history major, check.

fact, for decades before the EU there was peace,

Can you point me to those decades? And I hope you're not referring to post WW2, you know when the European coal and steel deals (the basis for today's EU) were formed?

 

[mbow30]

Pan European growth or three lack thereof over the past decade has been a result of domestic policies, not eu regs.

 

[mbow30]

In fact two of the highest growth countries - Ireland and Iceland- were the most regulated post recession

 

[MindzEye]

In fact two of the highest growth countries - Ireland and Iceland- were the most regulated post recession

The axiom that government regulation stunts economic growth is religious observation, not objective analysis. At least in the 21st century world where we should all have long accepted that it's bad to have children making our clothing and companies can pollute at will.

 

[Altair]

So we're not a history major, check.


Can you point me to those decades? And I hope you're not referring to post WW2, you know when the European coal and steel deals (the basis for today's EU) were formed?

Trade deals are fine, I have no issues with those. In a post EU world I think trade deals will be beneficial to all European Nations. But there doesn't need to be a entity such as the EU in place to get a pan European Trade deal done.

So that being said, 1945-1993.

 

[zeke]

The axiom that government regulation stunts economic growth is religious observation, not objective analysis. At least in the 21st century world where we should all have long accepted that it's bad to have children making our clothing and companies can pollute at will.

The one saving grace - if it doesn't cause collapse - is that these dogmatic economic beliefs get exposed again, like they've been in Louisiana and Kansas.

 

[Altair]

In fact two of the highest growth countries - Ireland and Iceland- were the most regulated post recession

Ireland has yet to reach pre 2008 GDP levels, which to me signals they are simply bouncing back from their horrible recession. Also, low corporate taxes help them. That said, look at other over at France, look over at Italy, look at Portugal, and how those economies are overregulated to death.

The EU adds another layer of growth killing regulations to already overregulated European nations. And while Mindz can go on with about child labour and pollution, in reality, most countries in Europe already deal with that at a national level and didn't need added European regulations on top of that.

The fact of the matter is, the European Union has had the worst recovery from the financial crisis than any other region on earth, and many European countries are stuck with disastrously high unemployment rates, and even worst youth unemployment. This from a high tech, well educated populace. If it's not regulatory overreach that's killing growth in Europe, you tell me what is. Because as it stands now, Europe is a mess and something needs to change. The EU itself wont reform so to hell with it. Increasingly more and more Europeans are feeling the exact same way.

If the EU was such a success story, people wouldn't be souring on it on mass. If people are upset and frustrated about it, it's for a good reason, but I don't expect you guys to care about such trivial things such as that.

 

[mbow30]

Ugh. Not gonna bother

 

[Altair]

Ugh. Not gonna bother

Sorry, you're right.

There should be laws regulating the straightness of Bananas, Power of Vacuum Cleaners, and how bottled water doesn't solve dehydration, or the limits on cinnamon in pastries.

Right up there with child labour laws.