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The 2015 Draft Lottery McEichel sweepstakes thread

Hanifin sounds nice, and Button has him dropping to #5. I think he's gone before the Canes pick.
I think he's there when you draft...

McDavid
Eichel
Strome
Marner

Is how I think the top four are going. The wildcard is Arizona that may take Hanifin.
 
Yeah, I have a feeling there's a chance that Hanifin isn't available to us come pick #5, which leaves a whole lot of possibilities as to WHO will be available. I can't see both Arizona and the Leafs passing on Strome if he's available. Marner? Yes.
 
If Hanifin is available the Canes pretty much have to pick him at #5. That would lead to an interesting situation where all of our top prospects are DMen and we theoretically should have a very strong blue in another 3-4 years. Meanwhile our offense will remain a train wreck without some serious improvement by the players we have now or a major change over in talent.

When is the last time we looked at our system prospects and could say 'we have a ton of legit should be NHL Dmen in the pipeline?' Ever?

There really isn't any chance Strome makes it to #5. The Leafs are not going to let him get by them at #4 if he is still there, that is just not going to happen. Its either going to be Marner or Hanifin available at #5, with Ronnie also having Crouse to distract him as well. We really have no business picking Crouse at #5 overall regardless of what happens in front of us. You take Marner or Hanifin and look for forward size elsewhere.
 
There are going to be hundreds of mock drafts out there by the time the real draft comes along. Some of those will be by folks considered legit hockey pundits. Some of them will be by people who like to think of themselves as legit hockey pundits. Some of them will be by fans like us. So far I've heard of 2 that have us not taking either Marner or Hanifin:

draftnite.com has us going completely rogue and drafting Mikko Rantanen, who is a big 6'4" Finnish winger and passing on Marner. Frankly I have no clue what whoever put that mock draft together was thinking, we don't scout Europe well enough to be crazy enough to draft someone like Rantanen 5th overall so I would say you can immediately and permanantly discount anything that draftnite.com posts out there. They apparently don't have a clue.

Damian Cox has us passing on Marner and picking Crouse

I think it would be an epic mistake to draft a big winger here and pass and Marner's skill just because we could use some added size at forward. It appears the current consensus has us being smarter than that and drafting the best player available at #5 overall. There isn't any scenario where Crouse or Rantanen or anyone not named Noah Hanifin or Mitch Marner should be our draft pick at #5 (assuming we actually make that pick, we have zero history with Ronnie and no indications on how bold he might be with trades involving our draft picks or players as we approach the draft).
 
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Francis would have gotten a good look at Rantanen at the World Juniors events he took in over the past year or so, beyond what other scouts may have seen him. He's reportedly been traveling and looking at a lot of these prospects himself.

If it is size in a forward they want, I'd probably be more comfortable with them swapping with someone that wants Hanifin or Marner (whichever falls to fifth) and picking a few slots back where someone like Rantanen will go.

In fact, there's a ton of big bodies in that next tier. And more waiting for the high second-rounder pick we have.

EDIT: And dropping back to say eighth so someone could snag whatever fell to fifth might yield a second high dip in that rich second round pool in addition to getting the first-rounder you really wanted. It's a reasonable option to consider.
 
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...so I would say you can immediately and permanantly discount anything that draftnite.com posts out there. They apparently don't have a clue.

Damian Cox has us passing on Marner and picking Crouse

I think it would be an epic mistake to draft a big winger here and pass and Marner's skill...

You could immediately and permanently discount anything Damien Cox has to say, as well. You wouldn't be the first.
 
Damian Cox has us passing on Marner and picking Crouse

It's historically established that Damien Cox makes up 90% of what he projects out of thin air. He's the biggest know-nothing blowhard in a profession full of them ... with real competition only from Bruce Garrioch. If either of those two "project" pretty much anything more complicated than what they'll have for lunch ... just go ahead and assume the opposite will happen.
 
There's a rumor that Arizona is very interested in Marner as they have his old London Knight teammate Max Domi, also they have Anthony Duclair, another young guy who played on the same line with Domi at the WJC. Those 3 could make up a solid future 1st line..

So, let's say the Coyotes think they could trade down, figuring that Marner would be available at #5. If you were RF, would you swap picks w/ them if let's say you'd have to give them our 2nd, maybe get their 3rd rounder?
To CAR: ARI 1st (3rd overall), ARI 3rd (63rd overall)
TO ARZ: CAR 1st (5th overall), CAR 2nd (35th overall)

Or, let's say they really want to have 2 picks in the top 5. So, they offer something like this:
TO CAR: NYR 1st (held by ARI, TBD overall, most likely 22-30 range), ARI 2nd (32nd overall)
TO ARI: CAR 1st (5th overall), Alex Semin (entire salary, no salary retained by CAR)

What do you think? Or am I being a real homer here and these 2 potential trades heavily favor the Canes, and there's no way they'd ever happen?
 
On that first trade GAH, what would be the reason the Canes would want to move up to #3 overall? So we could draft Dylan Strome? If Arizona is absolutely committed to drafting Mitch Marner they better hold on to their pick and make it at #3 because in your scenario I would see the Canes draft Dylan Strome and then the Leafs would take Mitch Marner.

I don't think that first proposal makes sense for either the Canes or the Yotes. I would rather the Canes take whoever falls to them (Marner or Hanifin) and use their high 2nd round pick rather than trading up fo Strome. I could see the Yotes trading down but if they really want Marner they can't really take that risk.

I can't see the Canes doing that 2nd proposal which is effectively selling the 5th pick overall. Considering how important it is to rebuild the Canes via smart drafting, that would be a very backwards approach. I understand your thinking there, but that deal would be really terrible from the Canes perspective. Canes are much better off eating the money on Semin without weakening their draft position.
 
Just pick BPA at #5. And BPA is one of Marner, Strome, or Hanifin.

Hat tip to leafman101 over on the Leafs board for the data:

Since 1990 OHL 17 year old seasons
1. Eric Lindros - 57 gp, 71 gls, 149 pts, 2.61 ppg
2. Connor McDavid - 47 gp, 44 gls, 120 pts, 2.55 ppg
3. Sam Gagner - 53 gp, 35 gls, 118 pts, 2.23 ppg
4. Marc Savard - 66 gp, 43 gls, 139 pts, 2.11 ppg
5. Jason Spezza - 56 gp, 43 gls, 116 pts, 2.07 ppg
5. Joe Thornton - 59 gp, 41 gls, 122 pts, 2.07 ppg
7. John Tavares - 67 gp, 72 gls, 134 pts, 2.00 ppg
7. Mitchell Marner - 63 gp, 44 gls, 126 pts, 2.00 ppg
9. Jeff O'Neill - 66 gp, 45 gls, 126 pts, 1.91 ppg
10. Dylan Strome - 68 gp, 45 gls, 129 pts, 1.90 ppg

Since 1990 NCAA 17 year old seasons
1. Jonathan Toews - 42 gp, 22 gls, 39 pts, 0.93 ppg
2. Zachary Werenski - 35 gp, 9 gls, 25 pts, 0.71 ppg
3. AJ Thelin - 41 gp, 11 gls, 29 pts, 0.71 ppg
4. Noah Hanifin - 37 gp, 5 gls, 23 pts, 0.67 ppg


All these guys put up practically unheard of seasons for their age, that are among the elite of the elite. The idea that we should be disappointed ending up with any of Hanifin, Marner or Strome and maybe even add Werensky to that group is just nuts. Any one of those guys would be a massive addition the organization. One that this team hasn't even had a chance to make through the draft since probably Lanny MacDonald. The numbers Marner put up practically guarantee him to be an elite player in the NHL. And he started off slow this year too with 5 point in his first 10 games. He finished the year with 52 goals and 137 points in 60 games (2.28 ppg) including the playoffs. Plus the kid plays a strong two way game. Hanifin did the same thing, putting up 16 points in his last 19 games (0.84 ppg) , as a 17 year old dman, in the NCAA playing against 18-23 year olds. Its just insane the amount of talent that will be available at 4.

The Leafs are in a great position for the draft.
 
Wasn't AJ Thelin the big draft bust MIN selected-- Mr. Hockey and all that and just fizzled?

From what I've read, he had ankle and back injuries, and concussions, and supposed off-ice/attitude issues, which derailed him.

But I'll take my chances with the rest of that list... it's just crazy the amount of 17-year-old talent in this year's pool.

(Eichel is 18, before anyone asks).
 
Just pick BPA at #5. And BPA is one of Marner, Strome, or Hanifin.

Totally Agree! I would be shocked yet very pleased if Noah Hanifin drops to 5th overall. This guy has been a pretty solid third overall pick and the best defensemen in the draft most of the past two years if you look at most prognosticators for this draft.

Strome has trended upwards the past few months and you cannot ignore the Max Domi-Mitch Marner-Christian Dvorak London Knights connection for the Yotes...which for the record put up over 337 points combined together in London this past season. That might be enough of a lure for Arizona to bite on Marner.

Noah Hanifin with Hayden Fleury, Brett Pesce and Roland McKeown makes one helluva solid future blueline full of prospects for the Canes.

I just hope Francis holds onto the pick and does not get too cute and trades down to the 8th or 9th spot.
 
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I just hope Francis holds onto the pick and does not get too cute and trades down to the 8th or 9th spot.

Thus far Francis has given not even the slightest of hints that he'd do anything tricky. Cautious, yes. Tricky? Seriously doubt it.

I'd bet good money we take best available at 5 and don't even take phone calls.
 
Discussion on our board about trying to acquire the 6th pick from New Jersey outright so curious who you think the Canes take @ 5...

Gimme your order of preference!
 
Discussion on our board about trying to acquire the 6th pick from New Jersey outright so curious who you think the Canes take @ 5...

Gimme your order of preference!

The actual draft is almost always somewhat of a surprise as each team has their own BPA list.

But RF is going to have some 'splaining to do to the fan base if we're not taking what's left of Hanifin/Strome/Marner...unless what's left is Marner. Unknown how the org ranks him compared with Crouse or that broad plateau of talent that's at the next level.

If the org wants to substitute Provorov for Hanifin they would get no quarrel from me. And if they want Crouse or someone out of the next tier then they might best be served by dropping back and seeing if they can get an extra third-rounder or so for the move.
 
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Discussion on our board about trying to acquire the 6th pick from New Jersey outright so curious who you think the Canes take @ 5...

Gimme your order of preference!

If Hanifan is still there, I'd be absolutely shocked if we don't take him. Ditto Strome. Other than that, couldn't tell ya. But I'm certain neither of those two will still be on the board at 6. You MIGHT still get a bite at Marner at 6, but only for size reasons.
 
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