If drafting from junior, then junior until they are 20/21. If from NCAA then there until they are 22. If Europe then there as long as needed. Then we have 4 spots in the ECHL and AHL. Even if you actually develop 1 goalie from junior every draft it would take at least 6 years from drafting the first goalie to fill up the AHL/ECHL spots.
The only time that should be a problem is if they actually draft and develop more than 4 good young goalies at a given time. Which of course is never a problem. Just gives you trade assets for more picks.
But realistically you are hitting on goalies at a much lower rate than 100%.
Nailed it.
You're looking at two to three years minimum before most junior-aged goaltenders begin competing for a spot professionally, and that's only if you've determined they are even worthy of an ELC. There are plenty of young goaltenders that won't even receive a professional contract after junior, no matter how many you draft or how well they perform as a group.
Then in most circumstances you're looking at an additional three years of development time in the AHL or ECHL (if they are a little more unpolished) before they would even receive a call-up to the big club at the NHL level. This doesn't take into account the aforementioned European goalies, who would have the run on receiving starts for their local SEL, KHL, or SM-liiga clubs almost immediately from 18-20 years old depending on their talent level. Then you're looking at a few years worth of European development time for them before they compete for an AHL position in North America.
There's lots of time for evaluation over that period. No one can tell me that having five or six goaltenders playing junior hockey or professionally in Europe would present an impediment to the Leafs development model. And, as 101 pointed out above, how is having a possible assortment of riches a
bad thing!? In the unlikely circumstance that you have multiple high-quality, high-potential young goaltenders hanging around, playing well in their respective leagues, trade one or two of them for an asset in an area that you're not as deep in. That's prudent asset management. Then replenish the goaltenders traded away by drafting another one in the next draft.
That's how winning teams succeed: they maintain a constant supply of talent through the pipeline and stockpile draft picks. A smart organization should be employing this model for all positions, not putting constraints on the number of draft picks from a certain position just because you're worried you might have *too many* good prospects there.
