It's interesting what's happened so far this year, because it hasn't exactly gone how the advanced stats said it would.
The Leafs are still amongst the league leaders in the "luck" stats like SH%, SV%, and PDO. But they've actually become a worse possession team this year than they were last year instead. Meanwhile, the PP and PK have flipped spots, with a bad PP becoming great and a great PK becoming awful.
Good news is that we just got through the toughest stretch of our schedule - 7gms in 11 nights, including 3 different back to backs, against a very tough SOS and with multiple injuries and suspensions. Good reason to believe this is the low point of the season. We've had 9 back to backs in our first 36gms, and only have 6 left in our last 46. Going back a bit further, we've had 12gms in 20 nights - to contrast with that, we've only got 6gms in our next 17 nights and 7gms in our next 20. We don't play another elite team until we play Boston on Jan.14 - almost a month from now. Knock on wood we'll also be healthier and less suspended going forward.
But **** me we've really put ourselves in a spot now. Hopefully their confidence isn't totally shattered at this point.