OT: American Politics

[MindzEye]

Because economic growth is not the end all people make it out to be.

If the outcome is human well being (as measured by numerous metrics), yeah it kind of is. If the outcome is just more stuff and massive income inequality, sure.

Hell, is can be argued that the Chinese model makes for the most efficient economy, with it being the second largest in the world and growing around 6 percent a year.

You could argue that, but you'd be wrong. The Chinese are just starting to come to grips with the externalities they ignored for decades and their costs are enormous.

Note that I said economic development and not pure economic growth. Poisoning the shit out of your natural environment to generate pure GDP is bad policy. It's a bad development plan, as can be seen when viewed through the lens of the better human well being metrics.

Would you trade how we do things in the west for that authocratic system if it leads to trippling our economic growth? No, you wouldn't.

Cute false dichotomy, try harder.

And while the second Korean war is going on, I'm sure the most pressing issues will be the suicide rates skyrocketing, access to services that the most marginalized among western citizens need to maintain a healthy quality of life becoming restricted, and people in developing nations that depend on trade with the west to survive, ****ing starving

Would much rather deal with actually being in Korea, dodged a bullet there. Korean civilians too, lucky bunch, only need to dodge bombs, bullets missiles and nukes.

Again, I wasn't getting involved in your little NK slap fight. I wasn't comparing a shooting war to poor economic conditions. Just pointing out that you tend to massively undervalue the actual human affects of poor economic conditions.

 

[UWHabs]

This right here is what I will be laughing morbidly at.

War is off the table... For you. There are many in the administration who feel like its on the table, and North Korean don't give a ****. That's all that is needed.

I guess most of us would rather put up with idle ramblings from a deranged madman rather than see half of Seoul wiped off the map. But to each our own.

 

[MindzEye]

One side wants nuclear weapons, the other says categorically that it will not allow them to get them, if the latter does nothing the former will get them, the only way for the latter to stop the former is by using military action.

Don't act like this hasn't happened before, where one nation tries to impose terms that the other finds unacceptable and the only result being war. Franco -prussian war of 1870 is a good example.

Or the French entry into WW1 due to unacceptable German demands that france allow German troops occupy French forts for the duration of germanys war with Russia.

Sometimes, two nations cannot solve their differences diplomaticaly.

NK doesn't want "nuclear weapons" beyond their ability to ensure the survival of the regime. "get rid of your nukes" has always been a precondition for the US to sit down and discuss survival of the regime with NK. NK has seen this movie before, and knows that even if they feel they can trust this administration, it's impossible to trust future administrations (like Gorbachev trusting Ronnie about Nato not expanding, and then getting pushed out of office in disgrace when HW Bush expanded Nato right up to the border).

This is the problem when a superpower like the US doesn't want to be an honest power broker. It gets made worse when you see the Trump administration throw out every norm they possibly can to chase their own policy initiatives regardless of past alliances and agreements.

NK would likely trade their nuclear program for the right multi lateral agreements signed with all the players in the region and the US, but they're not going to give up their nukes for the honour of sitting at the big boys table and having terms dictated to them in a take it or leave it manner, that's the death of the regime, which they're not kosher with. They're just playing a game that they didn't start, but learned from the mistakes of others enough to play well.

Not having nukes = death of the regime. Having nukes and letting one off the chain = death of the regime. Stalemate until the US blinks is what they're playing for.

 

[Altair]

If the outcome is human well being (as measured by numerous metrics), yeah it kind of is. If the outcome is just more stuff and massive income inequality, sure.



You could argue that, but you'd be wrong. The Chinese are just starting to come to grips with the externalities they ignored for decades and their costs are enormous.

Note that I said economic development and not pure economic growth. Poisoning the shit out of your natural environment to generate pure GDP is bad policy. It's a bad development plan, as can be seen when viewed through the lens of the better human well being metrics.



Cute false dichotomy, try harder.



Again, I wasn't getting involved in your little NK slap fight. I wasn't comparing a shooting war to poor economic conditions. Just pointing out that you tend to massively undervalue the actual human affects of poor economic conditions.

You somehow think that GDP growth slowing by 1 percent in the UK is poor economic conditions.

One of the reasons why I simply couldn't give a damn. The global economy fluctuates so much, and countries grow and slow at different speeds all the time, all the while the world doesn't come to a sudden end for the laggards and utopia doesn't happen in the boomers, so in the end, unless 1929 or 2008 happens, I really don't care too much, and if there is anything more serious is going on at the same time, again, I couldn't care.

 

[MindzEye]

and North Korean don't give a ****. That's all that is needed.

Why do people actually believe the North Koreans are crazy? They're ****ing monsters, don't get me wrong but that are absolutely rational actors in all of this. They want the survival of their regime and they're playing the only game that can potentially lead to that outcome. Now, they'll try to tear the whole ****ing peninsula down with them if they know they're on the way out, but if their survival is assured they'll continue to act rationally.

 

[Altair]

NK doesn't want "nuclear weapons" beyond their ability to ensure the survival of the regime. "get rid of your nukes" has always been a precondition for the US to sit down and discuss survival of the regime with NK. NK has seen this movie before, and knows that even if they feel they can trust this administration, it's impossible to trust future administrations (like Gorbachev trusting Ronnie about Nato not expanding, and then getting pushed out of office in disgrace when HW Bush expanded Nato right up to the border).

This is the problem when a superpower like the US doesn't want to be an honest power broker. It gets made worse when you see the Trump administration throw out every norm they possibly can to chase their own policy initiatives regardless of past alliances and agreements.

NK would likely trade their nuclear program for the right multi lateral agreements signed with all the players in the region and the US, but they're not going to give up their nukes for the honour of sitting at the big boys table and having terms dictated to them in a take it or leave it manner, that's the death of the regime, which they're not kosher with. They're just playing a game that they didn't start, but learned from the mistakes of others enough to play well.

Not having nukes = death of the regime. Having nukes and letting one off the chain = death of the regime. Stalemate until the US blinks is what they're playing for.

the US isn't going blink. If every despot in the world sees that the US caves on this what is to stop them?

 

[Altair]

Why do people actually believe the North Koreans are crazy? They're ****ing monsters, don't get me wrong but that are absolutely rational actors in all of this. They want the survival of their regime and they're playing the only game that can potentially lead to that outcome. Now, they'll try to tear the whole ****ing peninsula down with them if they know they're on the way out, but if their survival is assured they'll continue to act rationally.

They are a country with the economy of New Brunswick starving their own people in a game of nuclear chicken with the worlds superpower on the toss up that the Americans don't have the intestinal fortitude to follow through on their threat.

Sounds crazy to me.

 

[MindzEye]

You somehow think that GDP growth slowing by 1 percent in the UK is poor economic conditions.

I don't think simply summing it up in one economic metric tells the whole story at all, and I don't believe that the economic cost (which will be significant) is remotely worth what was gained (almost literally nothing when all is said and done, and all of the post brexit trade deals are signed)

One of the reasons why I simply couldn't give a damn. The global economy fluctuates so much, and countries grow and slow at different speeds all the time, all the while the world doesn't come to a sudden end for the laggards and utopia doesn't happen in the boomers, so in the end, unless 1929 or 2008 happens, I really don't care too much, and if there is anything more serious is going on at the same time, again, I couldn't care.

Like I said, you completely under estimate the affects of poverty on general human well being. Poverty is the single biggest driver in violent crime, and violent crime is responsible for roughly 550,000 murders a year world wide. There's a massive correlation between wealth and human safety.

 

[MindzEye]

They are a country with the economy of New Brunswick starving their own people in a game of nuclear chicken with the worlds superpower on the toss up that the Americans don't have the intestinal fortitude to follow through on their threat.

Sounds crazy to me.

Then I question if you understand what actual "crazy" is.

 

[MindzEye]

the US isn't going blink. If every despot in the world sees that the US caves on this what is to stop them?

and if the US cowboys up and Seoul gets wiped off the map as a result, what ally will ever trust them again?

On the other hand, if the US blinks and is willing to bring NK to the table (with China & SK), and everyone puts up with NK's histrionics for long enough to get them to give up their nuke program for signed agreements that the regime will be protected and they get their own marshall plan to assist with integration into the modern world...every despot in the world will be lining up to make a deal to assure their own safety.

I mean, how has the tough guy approach worked so far?

 

[Altair]

I don't think simply summing it up in one economic metric tells the whole story at all, and I don't believe that the economic cost (which will be significant) is remotely worth what was gained (almost literally nothing when all is said and done, and all of the post brexit trade deals are signed)



Like I said, you completely under estimate the affects of poverty on general human well being. Poverty is the single biggest driver in violent crime, and violent crime is responsible for roughly 550,000 murders a year world wide. There's a massive correlation between wealth and human safety.

Sure.

 

[Altair]

Then I question if you understand what actual "crazy" is.

In the terms of the global community they are definitely the crazy ones.

 

[Altair]

and if the US cowboys up and Seoul gets wiped off the map as a result, what ally will ever trust them again?

On the other hand, if the US blinks and is willing to bring NK to the table (with China & SK), and everyone puts up with NK's histrionics for long enough to get them to give up their nuke program for signed agreements that the regime will be protected and they get their own marshall plan to assist with integration into the modern world...every despot in the world will be lining up to make a deal to assure their own safety.

I mean, how has the tough guy approach worked so far?

And if the US gets played, as they have before while trying to deal with North Korea, then they are left with the same tough choice with ever worsening conditions.

And far more skilled negotiators have tried and failed with north Korea, far more stable, able, and diplomatic presidents have failed with north Korea, what chance does trump and co have?

No, I think the beat down is coming. Its going to be ugly. The poor economy, everyone shed a tear for it.

 

[MindzEye]

In the terms of the global community they are definitely the crazy ones.

They're under the belief that if they don't have nukes, all of them will die.

That's not a crazy belief in the least if we look at modern history and how rogue regimes are dealt with. There's nothing crazy, deranged, or even random about their dealings. They have a set of goals and they're pursuing what appears to be the most rational method available of achieving those goals.

Like I said, they're ****ing monsters who deserve to be put down but they're not crazy in any real sense of the word.

 

[MindzEye]

And if the US gets played, as they have before while trying to deal with North Korea, then they are left with the same tough choice with ever worsening conditions.

And far more skilled negotiators have tried and failed with north Korea, far more stable, able, and diplomatic presidents have failed with north Korea, what chance does trump and co have?

No, I think the beat down is coming. Its going to be ugly. The poor economy, everyone shed a tear for it.

You're ****ed in the head man, seriously.

 

[Aberdeen]

It's not the economy most of us are worried about.

 

[Altair]

You're ****ed in the head man, seriously.

That's a lazy response.

That's fine.

Most people can't be bothered to think too much about a war. The west is rather soft that way.

 

[MindzEye]

That's a lazy response.

This is ironic after you smashed the "crazy" button at first opportunity. I got lazy because I've given up trying to discuss things of depth with you, you got lazy because you don't appear capable of more.

Most people can't be bothered to think too much about a war. The west is rather soft that way.

Most people would rather exhaust all possible alternatives first rather than get an erection at the thought of the destruction of a major world metropolis.

 

[MindzEye]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...lawyer-in-divorce-from-donald-trump-jr-report

Vanessa Trump has hired a criminal defense lawyer to represent her in her divorce from President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.

Vanessa Trump filed for divorce in Manhattan Supreme Court on Thursday.

Page Six reported Friday that Trump has hired New York-based lawyer David Feureisen amid reports that special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed Trump Organization in his investigation into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election.

Keep in mind that Mueller went after family members involved in hiding assets during the Enron prosecution, I don't think he'd hesitate to go after less publicly known Trump family members if they were accessories. This is more than just your standard divorce posturing.

 

[lecoqsportif]

One side wants nuclear weapons, the other says categorically that it will not allow them to get them, if the latter does nothing the former will get them, the only way for the latter to stop the former is by using military action.

Don't act like this hasn't happened before, where one nation tries to impose terms that the other finds unacceptable and the only result being war. Franco -prussian war of 1870 is a good example.

Or the French entry into WW1 due to unacceptable German demands that france allow German troops occupy French forts for the duration of germanys war with Russia.

Sometimes, two nations cannot solve their differences diplomaticaly.

There is no causus belli. Rationale solutions exist. Kim is a murderous, but rational, actor.