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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

You know it's the virus data because covid plays like APT are on fire
 
Just looked at my twitter for the first time today (it's purely sports based) and there's a lot of panic going on about covid. Did people just wake up from a 3 month dream? Covid never left dumbos.
 
Preston said:
Just looked at my twitter for the first time today (it's purely sports based) and there's a lot of panic going on about covid. Did people just wake up from a 3 month dream? Covid never left dumbos.
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I know...that's been my bear thesis for a few weeks. Not expecting another 2 week crash, but the same disconnect occurred back in February when Italy was being decimated and US numbers were starting to look ominous.
 
Also why I've had bear bias but the market is usaully smarter than this. But then again, the market isn't a medical professional so perhaps this is a different scenario.
 
Got out of all SPY puts before noon reversion BS. Still have some puts for FSLY runners.
 
Bulls still have a decent amount of room to work with before they can perhaps start sweating just a touch. Another 2.5-3%.
 
Preston said:
Also why I've had bear bias but the market is usaully smarter than this. But then again, the market isn't a medical professional so perhaps this is a different scenario.
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supply/demand and greed can trump news in the short term.

I laid out my thesis a few pages ago -- market near all time highs is not pricing in medical risk, political risk, and social cohesion risk.

Like I said, I don't expect a swift two week re-pricing of risk that we saw in March, but more of an extended re-pricing of risk that takes months -- with Powell easy money counterbalancing the reality. I mean, why is AAPL worth more than $500 Billion more now than it was 8 months ago when COVID was unknown and business friendly Trump was doing a lot better in the polls?
 
Because it's the stock market and can do what it wants. This could easily be yet another hilarious bear trap. Feels just like June 11th.
 
Preston said:
Because it's the stock market and can do what it wants. This could easily be yet another hilarious bear trap. Feels just like June 11th.
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Thank god, because if the market was a fine tuned Swiss watch, it'd be impossible to make money intra-day as everything would be priced perfectly.
 
CH1 said:
Thank god, because if the market was a fine tuned Swiss watch, it'd be impossible to make money intra-day as everything would be priced perfectly.
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It would actually be quite easy. We'd all make money! Well.. That's assuming that we can all price as accurately as the market. But one thing's for sure... Pandemic = stonks go down. Easy shorting.
 
Preston said:
It would actually be quite easy. We'd all make money! Well.. That's assuming that we can all price as accurately as the market. But one thing's for sure... Pandemic = stonks go down. Easy shorting.
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One of your edges is exploiting CSE inefficiencies. That would be gone.
 
Preston said:
Perhaps a bit ambitious but I'm looking at 2750 as my level to go long.
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It'll get there at some point this summer; but there will also be smaller dips/rips in the interim. Dip buyers will not give up so easily.
 
CH1 said:
It'll get there at some point this summer; but there will also be smaller dips/rips in the interim. Dip buyers will not give up so easily.
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All it takes is one miracle vaccine slated to be on the market late this year or early next year and my thesis will change completely... I know you mentioned that could be sell the news, but that only works when the news is expected. A miracle vaccine would create short-term euphoria.


With that said, I just laid out a very (unfortunately) unlikely scenario.
 
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