Around the League 2019-2026 Edition

[CH1]

Chayka's interview after drafting Hayton was him drooling over his "dig in" tendencies, two way game, effort and compete level etc.

That stuff does come at us all for sure.

math is just a temporary reprieve from our baser instincts

 

[zeke]

Gonna be real interesting to see what his rookie season looks like. Because the way these draft nerds and scouts talk about him, he's gonna be a 20-30 point guy next year, and will need to be sheltered heavily. But the data suggests he's going to be way better than that.

Will be a cool case study of data vs eye test for a prospect. I've rarely seen such a huge disconnect between the two for a #1 pick, and this dates back to before leafs won the lotto.

what if I told you the 'eye test' guys are actually looking mostly at points.

in this case, McKenna's 1st half this year, which holds down his season line. and Stenberg's very good points production in the SHL.

 

[MindzEye]

It was still the same game.

Basically empty buildings, a whole bunch of off ice requirements, etc. It was a weird time. Yes, everyone was at the same disadvantage so a win is a win. But one of the worst things you can do when analyzing anything is letting outlier situations overweight in your analysis. We took a hard turn after those losses because it convinced a deeply stupid organization of things it just shouldn't have.

 

[Preston]

what if I told you the 'eye test' guys are actually looking mostly at points.

in this case, McKenna's 1st half this year, which holds down his season line. and Stenberg's very good points production in the SHL.

Maybe, but they claim they aren't looking at points

Do I believe them when they say that? Sure partially. Do I trust that they're right about how he projects as an nhler? No, that's dumb.

 

[CH1]

what if I told you the 'eye test' guys are actually looking mostly at points.

they're looking at his perimeter play, lack of elite speed, and indifferent defensive play... mind you, none of those are tragic flaws for a young elite player

 

[Preston]

they're looking at his perimeter play, lack of elite speed, and indifferent defensive play... mind of you, none of those are tragic flaws for a young elite player

Yeah he's less direct and less puck dominant than those who came before him like Bedard and Celebrini and his off the puck play leaves a lot to be desired so people are concerned about how he'll look in his rookie season when he's not feeling it offensively. I think it's just a stylistic difference, both types of players should be able to translate well to the NHL.

If anything it might be easier for a guy that needs less of the puck and primarily scores points by playing off of others. But I'm open minded too!

 

[zeke]

a history of leafs depth skill.

16-17: Kadri/Hyman/JVR --- Bozak/Komarov/Brown --- Boyle/Kapanen/Martin
17-18: Kadri/Hyman/Marleau --- Bozak/JVR/Brown ---- Plekanec/Kapanen/Johnsson --- Moore/Komarov
18-19: Tavares/Hyman/Kapanen --- Kadri/Marleau/Johnsson --- Gauthier/Brown/Moore --- Ennis
19-20: Tavares/Hyman/Mikheyev --- Kerfoot/Kapanen/Robertson --- Spezza/Engvall/Clifford --- Gauthier/Johnsson
20-21: Tavares/Hyman/Mikheyev --- Kerfoot/Foligno/Galchenyuk --- Spezza/Thornton/Simmonds --- Nash/Engvall/Brooks
21-22: Tavares/Bunting/Mikheyev --- Kampf/Kerfoot/Engvall --- Spezza/Kase/Blackwell --- Simmonds/Clifford
22-23: Tavares/Bunting/Knies --- O'Reilly/Kerfoot/Acciari --- Kampf/Jarnkrok/Lafferty --- ZAR
23-24: Tavares/Bertuzzi/Knies --- Domi/Jarnkrok/Holmberg --- Kampf/Robertson/Dewar --- Gregor/Reaves
24-25: Tavares/Knies/Pacioretty --- Domi/Jarnkrok/Holmberg --- Laughton/McMann/Lorentz --- Kampf/Robertson

Habs '26: Danault/Demidov/Newhook --- Evans/Anderson/Texier --- Dach/Bolduc/Vevleno --- Kapanen/Gallagher

 

[zeke]

they're looking at his perimeter play, lack of elite speed, and indifferent defensive play... mind you, none of those are tragic flaws for a young elite player

by some strange coincidence, tho, the idea of Stenberg as #1 and McKenna #1 only occurred in the first half this year, when McKenna was only a ppg in NCAA while Stenberg was a much more impressive ppg in the SHL. crazy fluke i guess.

and then magically, in the 2nd half, when McKenna tore it up and Stenberg slowed down, suddenly it was back to McKenna clear #1.

until the leafs won the lottery of course.

 

[zeke]

Yeah he's less direct and less puck dominant than those who came before him like Bedard and Celebrini

his 5v5 nerdies happen to be as good or better than all of them, tho.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

my vibe is that a lot of Leaf fans need their skill guys to drop them once in a while

I'm kind of the opposite. I would be squeamish as fuck if Nylander or Matty was in a fight. The last thing I want is some broken hand or something that comes out of trying to "stick up" for themselves or anyone else. You can't be a complete pushover, but just hold your ground without having to go too far.

 

[zeke]

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Eh, I'd be cautious about just how good he's going to be out of the gate, especially at 5v5. He's still kind of built like a 12 yr old dutch girl so I think we're looking more at the Bedard/Kane type 60-70 point rookie season here. Which is lovely to airdrop into the lineup of course, but he could easily finish 5th among our forwards in scoring this season. Not a game changer up front. Pretty similar to what we got from Willy and Marner in their rookie seasons (keeping in mind that McKenna's rookie season will be 1-1.5 seasons ahead of what theirs were).

The skill is definitely there for more, especially if he clicks with a healthy Matthews. But I'd be cautious of expecting more.

I'm honestly tempering my expectations big time. I would be perfectly fine with 50 points.

But it's still a 50 point player making less than a mill, who is going to fill a big need immediately, just without any indication of ceiling.

No prob. All in. Just again, it's a gift dropped out of the sky that gets us a big piece from out of nowhere for next to no cap hit. One less move to make with plenty of money to make more if smart.

 

[Preston]

his 5v5 nerdies happen to be as good or better than all of them, tho.

That goes back to my eye test vs data bit and how much of a discrepancy there is between the two for this guy. To your point, it could be a lot of first half season bias. It just wouldn't be the first time that scouts put production to the side and freaked out over what they deem as crippling stylistic flaws on a particular player.

 

[CH1]

by some strange coincidence, tho, the idea of Stenberg as #1 and McKenna #1 only occurred in the first half this year, when McKenna was only a ppg in NCAA while Stenberg was a much more impressive ppg in the SHL. crazy fluke i guess.

and then magically, in the 2nd half, when McKenna tore it up and Stenberg slowed down, suddenly it was back to McKenna clear #1.

until the leafs won the lottery of course.

That’s not true with the people I read.
Admittedly, I only read Wheeler and Pronman (they’re not that good but who is really) and their boards have been all over the place.

Which makes sense because otherwise they would have nothing to write about. Gavin, Ivan etc are no Sid the Kid so they might as well mix things up every article they push out

 

[leafman101]

Its part points, but also part hockey tropes. Mckenna doesn't grind and doesn't play D. Stenberg grinds and plays d.

Stenberg plays a "pro style game", which apparently doesn't include being able to control the pace of play and generate chances most players can't

 

[CH1]

I'm kind of the opposite. I would be squeamish as fuck if Nylander or Matty was in a fight. The last thing I want is some broken hand or something that comes out of trying to "stick up" for themselves or anyone else. You can't be a complete pushover, but just hold your ground without having to go too far.

Like I said, this board is not reflective of the Leaf buzz out there

 

[leafman101]

Stenberg, Reid, Bjork, Carels, all these guys are actually really good players. I get why prospect guys are excited to talk about them. But they aren't #1.

 

[Preston]

That’s not true with the people I read.
Admittedly, I only read Wheeler and Pronman (they’re not that good but who is really) and their boards have been all over the place.

Which makes sense because otherwise they would have nothing to write about. Gavin, Ivan etc are no Sid the Kid so they might as well mix things up every article they push out

Ya even before the leafs won the lottery there was a lot of "well he improved in the second half, but he still has a lot of issues that are going to make it tough to play in the NHL next year." It's the lack of digging in and perimeter play I think. I'm curious as fuck to see how his rookie year goes, I'd love to dunk on the overthinking "scouts" and wheelers of the world.

 

[zeke]

That’s not true with the people I read.
Admittedly, I only read Wheeler and Pronman (they’re not that good but who is really) and their boards have been all over the place.

Which makes sense because otherwise they would have nothing to write about. Gavin, Ivan etc are no Sid the Kid so they might as well mix things up every article they push out

read closer.



with Mckenna the only prospect he put on "Tier 1".

 

[Preston]

Wait everyone had McKenna 1 before the season started. College exposed some of his "flaws" that the whl didn't so people freaked the fuck out. That's all.