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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

LeafOfFaith said:
In all seriousness, I really don’t even want us to be in on him all that much. If Rielly turns back into a 60-70 point dman this year, which I’m pretty optimistic that he will, why am I paying the moon to acquire Werenski and his two year deal?

I don’t believe we’re a realistic destination so I’m not sweating it, but I just don’t see the sense of blowing our brains out for him.
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That’s wrong tbh.
 
Chayka was pumping stolarz's tires a bit yesterday. I could see him wanting to be part of a tandem next year. If the goalie guys in the org think Hildeby sucks like mbow does, maybe he's the guy you move off of.

But on the surface, going into next year with maybe the worst or second worst goalie in the league last year (and paying him real money for multiple years) and a guy who can't stay healthy would make me plenty nervous.
 
Volcanologist said:
hard to imagine the Leafs winning any kind of bidding war for Werenski. he'd have to really, really want to come here specifically a la Raddysh.
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Leafs can easily put together something better than what Vancouver got for Hughes. Depends on how desperate they are to do this. And depends on how much Columbus likes the players in question, every org will have a different opinion on the players offered for Werenski.
 
Jesus, I just happened to notice that Vancouver’s cap is saddled with OEL’s buyout at $4.77m next season, and then $2m+ for four seasons after that. One of the dumbest decisions ever.
 
Preston said:
Leafs can easily put together something better than what Vancouver got for Hughes. Depends on how desperate they are to do this. And depends on how much Columbus likes the players in question, every org will have a different opinion on the players offered for Werenski.
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Knies is a great asset and all, but that's not going to be the best centrepiece they can get out of 10 bidders
 
Preston said:
Chayka was pumping stolarz's tires a bit yesterday. I could see him wanting to be part of a tandem next year. If the goalie guys in the org think Hildeby sucks like mbow does, maybe he's the guy you move off of.

But on the surface, going into next year with maybe the worst or second worst goalie in the league last year (and paying him real money for multiple years) and a guy who can't stay healthy would make me plenty nervous.
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If Bob wants real money and term, he can go to Russia. But if he wants reasonable money and two years max, then I’d roll the dice on him being good rather than Stolarz being healthy or available when needed. And if not him, then any other decent goalie option. My fear is that Stolarz will be down and out for the better part of his extension.
 
Volcanologist said:
Knies is a great asset and all, but that's not going to be the best centrepiece they can get out of 10 bidders
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Which is why we’d have to throw the kitchen sink at them, and for what? We currently have a really strong six pack on D, with promising kids on the way. Why do we need to deplete the team to get an upgrade on Rielly?
 
Volcanologist said:
Knies is a great asset and all, but that's not going to be the best centrepiece they can get out of 10 bidders
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Probabilistically speaking, no. Best we can do is look at priors though. And the leafs can absolutely easily beat that Minnesota package for Hughes, so it depends what specifically Columbus wants or likes, and it may not be the Leafs guys as much as some others.

But since Columbus is looking for roster guys and a win-now return, leafs have a bit of everything from the young future Rick Nash to a fully marinated prospect in Cowan ready for top six duty to an established top 4 d on a good contract in McCabe. So at the very least, they can put together a very competitive offer if they choose to.
 
Preston said:
Probabilistically speaking, no. Best we can do is look at priors though. And the leafs can absolutely easily beat that Minnesota package for Hughes, so it depends what specifically Columbus wants or likes, and it may not be the Leafs guys as much as some others.

But since Columbus is looking for roster guys and a win-now return, leafs have a bit of everything from the young future Rick Nash to a fully marinated prospect in Cowan ready for top six duty to an established top 4 d on a good contract in McCabe. So at the very least, they can put together a very competitive offer if they choose to.
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Team takes a step backwards, not forward, by deleting a few talented key young guys for one 30 year old dman.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Team takes a step backwards, not forward, by deleting a few talented key young guys for one 30 year old dman.
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Hey I'm only contesting the fact that the Leafs can't put together a very good, or even the best offer if they choose to! Whether you feel it's worth it or not is a different argument.
 
Preston said:
Hey I'm only contesting the fact that the Leafs can't put together a very good, or even the best offer if they choose to! Whether you feel it's worth it or not is a different argument.
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Oh, of course we can. We could definitely be topped by whoever wants to go totally nuts, but we have the pieces for sure.
 
Honestly, SJ is the place for Werenski. They need D and can offer a ton without really making a dent, and probably can squeeze more value out of Misa and/or Smith than they actually hold. They should be trying hard to land him, and he should go there because that’s a great situation to step into.
 
Misa is probably an untouchable. They're very big on Celebrini-Misa as their 1-2 combo down the middle for the next decade+. But yeah, if they offer him up for Werenski, then Columbus would be thrilled.

Will Smith could be offered tho and probably would be the centerpiece. Don't think the sharks believe he can be a C. Does Columbus like him more than Knies? That's an opinion that could vary by organization.
 
The thing with those guys is that you’re selling upside that may or may not actually come into being later. They’re both really good, but how good are they going to be? You’re shifting some of that risk onto Columbus while getting the fully known commodity back. For me, I’d feel better about that kind of deal if I’m SJ because either I end up getting a fair exchange or I end up winning. You probably don’t lose that deal.

It’s why I’m much more comfortable trading Cowan than Knies. I think Cowan is going to be really good, but I know Knies is really good and going to get better. If I’m trading Cowan though, maybe I’m trading a 60 point forward and not an 80 point forward. Naturally, it’s the same reason why a team would want Knies over Cowan.

But those SJ guys are carrying such heat right now that it feels like you could get 20% or 30% extra value in exchange because of it.
 
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