• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Official 2026-27 Leafs Season Thread: New Regime, Who Dis?

Leafs come in at 17th in the Athletic's preseason rankings.

Their +8.4 net rating is a big jump over #18 NYR's +1.8 tho. I have a feeling they pushed the leafs down out of the playoffs to assuage the masses. We'll see tomorrow if any of the playoffs teams have a lower net rating.

Screenshot 2026-09-22 112019.png


the thing to remember here is that this is a huge bump up from their net rating last year, where they must have finished with a team total of like -30 or -40 or something. So the numbers will only project so much bounceback.

last year they came into the season ranked 7th overall at +29.6. Forwards at +21.7, Dmen at -4.3, and goalies at +12.2.

So the biggest on paper downturn from last year is actually the goalies. From a huge +12.2 projection all the way to a -4.8. That sucks, given how much money we put into it. I sure hope it's as wrong as the goalie projection for last year, but in the opposite direction.

The dmen have improved from -4.3 to +2.7 with the new additions, even though every one of the repeating dmen has lost a good chunk of their projection coming in after the disaster last year.

The forwards have also dropped bigtime by -11.2, entirely because the Top-4 forwards' projection has dropped by a whopping -14.6. McKenna's healthy +7.1 projection covers some of that dip but not all. The big boys have to bounce back for sure. But it also sucks that we spent all the money on the bottom 6 for no clear upgrade.


Last Year's Projection ---> This Year's Projection ---> Difference

Matthews +24.6 ---> Matthews +17.3 ---> -7.3
Nylander +13.2 ---> Nylander +11.5 ---> -1.7
Knies +8.4 ---> Knies +4.6 ---> -3.8

Tavares +10.6 ---> Tavares +7.1 ---> -3.5
Maccelli +0.5 ---> McKenna +7.2 ---> +6.7
Roy -2.3 ---> Cowan -2.3 ---> 0.0

McMann -2.4 ---> Roslovic -2.9 ---> -0.5
Domi -4.4 ---> Paul -4.7 ---> -0.3
Robertson -4.5 ---> Blueger -5.8 ---> -1.3

Laughton -6.3 ---> Sissons -6.6 ---> -0.3
Joshua -6.5 ---> Joshua -6.1 ---> +0.5
Lorentz -9.1 ---> Duhaime -8.8 ---> +0.3


Rielly +5.2 ---> Rielly -1.2 ---> -6.5
McCabe +2.8 ---> McCabe +0.6 ---> -2.2

Tanev +2.4 ---> Tanev -0.3 ---> -2.7
OEL -1.7 ---> OEL -2.7 ---> -1.0

Carlo -3.4 ---> Raddysh +7.8 ---> +11.2
Benoit -9.8 ---> Andrae -1.5 ---> +8.3


Stolarz +9.4 ---> Stolarz -1.5 ---> -10.9
Woll +2.8 ---> Bobrovsky -3.4 ---> -6.2​



And then maybe we should look at last year's actual numbers (not dom's precisely but from hockeystatscards which are kinda close) just to see how disastrous last year actually was and how big an upgrade these projections are on it:


Last Year's Actual (Pace in brackets) --- This Year's Projection ---> Difference

Matthews +9.0 (+12.3) ---> Matthews +17.3 ---> +8.3 (+5.0)
Nylander +9.0 (+11.4) ---> Nylander +11.5 ---> +1.5 (+0.1)
Knies +1.0 (+1.0) ---> Knies +4.6 ---> +3.6 (+3.6)

Tavares +8.6 (+8.6) ---> Tavares +7.1 ---> -1.5 (-1.5)
McMann +1.9 (+2.0) ---> McKenna +7.2 ---> +5.3 (+5.2)
Maccelli +0.8 (+0.9) ---> Roslovic -2.9 ---> -3.7 (-3.8)

Laughton -2.7 (-3.5) ---> Paul -4.7 ---> -2.0 (-1.2)
Cowan -3.4 (-4.3) ---> Cowan -2.3 ---> +1.1 (+2.0)
Joshua -2.5 (-3.7) ---> Joshua -6.1 ---> -3.6 (-2.4)

Roy -4.7 (-5.2) ---> Sissons -6.6 ---> -1.9 (-1.4)
Robertson -5.4 (-5.6) ---> Blueger -5.8 ---> -0.4 (-0.2)
Lorentz -6.1 (-7.1) ---> Lorentz ??? ---> ????

Domi -7.5 (-7.6) ---> Duhaime -8.8 ---> -1.3 (-1.2)
Jarnkrok -8.7 (-12.7) ---> ??? ---> ???

Total -10.7 (-13.5) ---> Total +10.5 ---> +21.2 (+24.0)


OEL -0.2 (-0.2) ---> OEL -2.7 ---> -2.5 (-2.5)
Rielly -1.2 (-1.3) ---> Rielly -1.2 ---> 0.0 (+0.1)

McCabe -3.2 (-3.3) ---> McCabe +0.6 ---> +3.8 (+3.9)
Carlo -5.8 (-8.7) ---> Raddysh +7.8 ---> +13.6 (+16.5)

Stecher -8.1 (-10.4) ---> Tanev -0.3 ---> +7.8 (+10.1)
Benoit -14.4 (-16.2) ---> Andrae -1.5 ---> +13.9 (+14.7)

Myers -7.5 (-15.7) ---> Blankenburg ??? ---> ???
Tanev -1.4 (-10.4) ---> Stecher ??? ---> ???

Total -41.8 (-66.2) ---> Total +2.7 ---> +44.5 (+68.9)


Goalies -3.1 ---> Goalies -4.8 ---> -1.7)

​
 
The good news is, the position that's hardest to predict is their worst. So there's a world in which Bob isn't a trainwreck disaster and they get average to average+ goaltending, which alone could get them in the playoffs tbh.
 
I do think the work that was done on July 1st decreased the ceiling of this roster significantly. I'm not sure how much opportunity there was to do better, but doing nothing and having flexibility would have been better than some of that stuff. Oh well. Still have lots of opportunity up and down the lineup to outperform this.
 
Offensive Rating Only

Matthews +14.6
Nylander +12.2
McKenna +8.4

Tavares +6.2
Knies +5.6
Cowan -1.3

Roslovic -2.2
Paul -5.3
Blueger -5.7

Joshua -5.9
Sissons -7.8
Duhaime -9.3


Raddysh +8.7
Rielly +1.4

OEL -0.4
McCabe -1.2

Andrae -2.0
Tanev -3.5



Defense Only

Matthews +2.6
Sissons +1.2
Tavares +0.9

Paul +0.7
Duhaime +0.5
Blueger -0.1

Joshua -0.2
Nylander -0.7
Roslovic -0.7

Knies -0.9
Cowan -1.0
McKenna -1.3


Tanev +3.2
McCabe +1.8

Andrae +0.5
Raddysh -0.9

OEL -2.3
Rielly -2.6


Matthews/Knies/Roslovic: +18.0off, +1.0def = +19.0net
Tavares/Nylander/McKenna: +26.8off, -1.1def = +25.7net
Paul/Cowan/Sissons: -14.4off, +0.9def = -13.5net
Blueger/Joshua/Duhaime: -20.9off, +0.2def = -20.7net

Rielly/Raddysh: +10.1off, -3.5def = +6.6net
McCabe/Tanev: -4.7off, +5.0def = +0.3net
Andrae/OEL: -2.4off, -1.8def = -4.2net
 
Some other players that are on projected bottom 16 teams that were of some varying interest to us:

C Thomas: +10.1off, +2.0def = +12.1net
C Larkin: +8.7off, +0.7def = +9.4net
W Stenberg: +4.7off, -0.9def = +3.8net

C O'Reilly: +5.3off, +2.1def = +7.4net
W Bertuzzi: +3.3off, -0.7def = +2.6net
W Kane: +2.3off, -0.3def = +2.0net

C Pettersson: +5.6off, +0.9def = +6.5net
W Marchment: +1.7off, +0.2def = +2.0net
W McMann: +0.3off, -0.2def = +0.1net

C Minten: -1.8off, +0.7def = -1.1net
W Maccelli: -1.7off, +0.6def = -1.1net
W Robertson: -3.3off, -1.5def = -4.8net

C Schenn: -3.0off, -1.7def = -4.7net
C Laughton: -6.0off, +0.0def = -6.0net


D Karlsson: +8.3off, -0.5def = +7.8net
D Parayko: -1.3off, +4.0def = +2.8net

D Durzi: +1.6off, -1.9def = -0.3net
D Nurse: -0.5off, +0.1def = -0.4net

D Nemec: +2.4off, -3.8def = -1.4net
D Carlo: -4.7off, +0.1def = -4.6net
 
LeafOfFaith said:
How can Cowan possibly be a minus? And how can they already assign such a number, or any number, to McKenna?
Click to expand...

Cuz Cowan was a below average nhler as a rookie, and projects to be a tad below avg in his 2nd year. Still quite good for his age and experience tho.

And prospects get projected based on minor league stats.
 
Cowan would have a big year if he played in the top 6. I'm actually okay that he doesn't so that we can keep his stats artificially low and extend him next year for cheaper. It would suck to have to pay him more than Knies, and with where salaries have gone, if he took a regular turn with Matty or Tavares, I think he'd get 50-60 points and then $8M+.
 
If the team is good in front of him, I'm confident he'll be very good actually.

And I do believe that our D, if it stays healthy, is going to be really strong. Rielly-Raddysh will give up chances but will spend a lot of time in the o zone, McCabe-Tanev will give nothing, and OEL-Andrae is actually a super elite third pair imo. Lots of mobility for once, so the puck won't get stuck in our zone. Goalies could be in line for a good season.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top