Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!
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ExceptionallyDumb
Banned
J-Bracks rocking and rolling tonight. Nothing new here folks.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Being mid season, and with the notable absence of a couple prospects from most of our top 10-15 lists, we may as well argue about our prospect rankings again. For the sake of the conversation, I'll consider anyone who isn't a full time NHL'er a prospect (so Rosen is in)
1) Sandin
Kid looks great, legit top pairing upside here. Looks like he'll be ready for at least a taste sooner rather than later. Lack of physical strength we were told about at the draft appears to have been overstated. Has all the tools you want out of a modern top pairing defender.
2) Lilly
Also looks really good (when healthy). Ridiculously good possession metrics as a 19 yr old in the AHL. Another guy with the prototype modern defender skill set. Also top pairing upside imo, but not as high of a floor as Sandin has.
3) Bracco
A legit breakout surprise that isn't that much of a surprise. Has vaulted into legit discussion as a top 6 forward. Still needs to add a step or two of speed or at least acceleration imo but he might be a legitimately elite play maker in the NHL if his feet can get him into open ice. On the cautionary side though, as nice as it is that he's been face ****ing the AHL (34 points in his last 25 games), I'd like to see him do something similar to this over a larger sample. The other issue I have is seeing where he fits on the Leafs roster. I'd love to see Kappy moved to the LW to open up a spot behind Mitch and Willy on the right, but Bracco is the opposite of a gud pro. The exact opposite. I still see him as trade bait more than a future roster fixture, even if he's good enough.
4) Rosen
Stud at the AHL level, legit #1 defender who just has to figure out the NHL game, but has to do it soon. Turns 25 in a few days. It's NHL or bust next season for him I'd imagine as Marincin is a UFA and Rosen signed a 2 yr extension. I imagine at worst he's our #7 next year and will get something of a shot to show he can play in the league
5) Scott
Our 3rd best breakout prospect of the year after Sandin & Bracco. The top goalie in the WHL just turned 20 and is the likely Marlies starter next season. How good he is next season will dictate what level of goaltending prospect he really is. Voodoo is voodoo, so best to not get too excited. He's this high on my list almost by default as the list drops off a lot in quality after the top 3.
6) Moore
"Only" 23 and looked good in his first run of NHL games. Probably a bottom 6 winger with flashes of skill, speed, and excitement rather than a consistent offensive producer in the NHL. A "breakout" to .8 ppg in the AHL isn't particularly impressive, but the attached .56 goals per game is.
7) Borgman
After looking pretty good in butter soft NHL usage not so long ago, dude is on a milk carton these days. Being left handed in the Leafs system isn't a great place to be right now with Rielly, Gardiner, Muzzin, Hainsey, Sandin, Rosen, & Marincin all shooting the same hand. I still think he's a 3rd pairing NHL defender with his decent blend of puck moving and physicality, but I have a hard time seeing him getting the opportunity here.
8) SDA
The kids only saving grace this year is just how young he is. He's 18 all year which is rare in a D+1 year. Some really strong play making analytics is another ray of hope here because he's just not putting up the type of offensive numbers you want out of D+1 season, especially from a kid with this much pure skill. I'm probably ranking him too high, but I'm cool with that for now. The type of talent that can flip a switch and finish the OHL season on a 1.5+ ppg tear. Has been better lately after a horrible start by all accounts.
9) Hollowell
Undersized, overaged RHD who is leading all OHL defenders in scoring. Pretty much what you expect out of a player of this profile. Skates well, good edges, very good puck mover. Is willing to engage physically (he's not soft, just very small). There's a handful of good comparables around the league and with the style of play trending towards smaller, faster, and better puck movement, he's got the tools. Long road though. Another guy we'll have a better handle on when we see him in the AHL next season.
10) Woll
The raw numbers look like an improvement (and they are), but I'm not too excited yet given where he ranks in SV% in the NCAA. He's got one more year of NCAA eligibility left and with Ian Scott looking ready for the AHL, they may as well use it.
Honourable Mention: Rasanen
Zeke's favourite right handed monster, is generally having a hell of a time in europe between injuries and playing time. Last I heard, he's been loaned out from his KHL team (Jokerit) and he's actually getting minutes in the Finnish 2nd league (Mestis). Still an intriguing player with his size, strength and passable set of hands but the clock is going to start ticking soon. He needs to establish himself as a major european league regular shortly or else it will look like he's pissing his development time away badly. Probably should have stayed in the OHL and just had the Leafs front office push for a trade to another program there.
1) Sandin
Kid looks great, legit top pairing upside here. Looks like he'll be ready for at least a taste sooner rather than later. Lack of physical strength we were told about at the draft appears to have been overstated. Has all the tools you want out of a modern top pairing defender.
2) Lilly
Also looks really good (when healthy). Ridiculously good possession metrics as a 19 yr old in the AHL. Another guy with the prototype modern defender skill set. Also top pairing upside imo, but not as high of a floor as Sandin has.
3) Bracco
A legit breakout surprise that isn't that much of a surprise. Has vaulted into legit discussion as a top 6 forward. Still needs to add a step or two of speed or at least acceleration imo but he might be a legitimately elite play maker in the NHL if his feet can get him into open ice. On the cautionary side though, as nice as it is that he's been face ****ing the AHL (34 points in his last 25 games), I'd like to see him do something similar to this over a larger sample. The other issue I have is seeing where he fits on the Leafs roster. I'd love to see Kappy moved to the LW to open up a spot behind Mitch and Willy on the right, but Bracco is the opposite of a gud pro. The exact opposite. I still see him as trade bait more than a future roster fixture, even if he's good enough.
4) Rosen
Stud at the AHL level, legit #1 defender who just has to figure out the NHL game, but has to do it soon. Turns 25 in a few days. It's NHL or bust next season for him I'd imagine as Marincin is a UFA and Rosen signed a 2 yr extension. I imagine at worst he's our #7 next year and will get something of a shot to show he can play in the league
5) Scott
Our 3rd best breakout prospect of the year after Sandin & Bracco. The top goalie in the WHL just turned 20 and is the likely Marlies starter next season. How good he is next season will dictate what level of goaltending prospect he really is. Voodoo is voodoo, so best to not get too excited. He's this high on my list almost by default as the list drops off a lot in quality after the top 3.
6) Moore
"Only" 23 and looked good in his first run of NHL games. Probably a bottom 6 winger with flashes of skill, speed, and excitement rather than a consistent offensive producer in the NHL. A "breakout" to .8 ppg in the AHL isn't particularly impressive, but the attached .56 goals per game is.
7) Borgman
After looking pretty good in butter soft NHL usage not so long ago, dude is on a milk carton these days. Being left handed in the Leafs system isn't a great place to be right now with Rielly, Gardiner, Muzzin, Hainsey, Sandin, Rosen, & Marincin all shooting the same hand. I still think he's a 3rd pairing NHL defender with his decent blend of puck moving and physicality, but I have a hard time seeing him getting the opportunity here.
8) SDA
The kids only saving grace this year is just how young he is. He's 18 all year which is rare in a D+1 year. Some really strong play making analytics is another ray of hope here because he's just not putting up the type of offensive numbers you want out of D+1 season, especially from a kid with this much pure skill. I'm probably ranking him too high, but I'm cool with that for now. The type of talent that can flip a switch and finish the OHL season on a 1.5+ ppg tear. Has been better lately after a horrible start by all accounts.
9) Hollowell
Undersized, overaged RHD who is leading all OHL defenders in scoring. Pretty much what you expect out of a player of this profile. Skates well, good edges, very good puck mover. Is willing to engage physically (he's not soft, just very small). There's a handful of good comparables around the league and with the style of play trending towards smaller, faster, and better puck movement, he's got the tools. Long road though. Another guy we'll have a better handle on when we see him in the AHL next season.
10) Woll
The raw numbers look like an improvement (and they are), but I'm not too excited yet given where he ranks in SV% in the NCAA. He's got one more year of NCAA eligibility left and with Ian Scott looking ready for the AHL, they may as well use it.
Honourable Mention: Rasanen
Zeke's favourite right handed monster, is generally having a hell of a time in europe between injuries and playing time. Last I heard, he's been loaned out from his KHL team (Jokerit) and he's actually getting minutes in the Finnish 2nd league (Mestis). Still an intriguing player with his size, strength and passable set of hands but the clock is going to start ticking soon. He needs to establish himself as a major european league regular shortly or else it will look like he's pissing his development time away badly. Probably should have stayed in the OHL and just had the Leafs front office push for a trade to another program there.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
No love for Engvall! Guy should be midway on your list. I'd certainly put him over Borg, Hollowell and Woll.
Marchment is another you have a nice hate-on. Sins of the father? I don't mind a bit of nasty that can score on the fourth line. Leafs really do have too much pussy (although Muzzin helps with this).
Marchment is another you have a nice hate-on. Sins of the father? I don't mind a bit of nasty that can score on the fourth line. Leafs really do have too much pussy (although Muzzin helps with this).
WellPlayed
Well-known member
The Athletic had what I thought was a really great piece on SDA's amazing skill level / lack of production
Why Leafs prospect Semyon Der-Arguchintsev’s dynamic skill set isn’t leading to more goals
https://theathletic.com/748032/2019...dynamic-skill-set-isnt-leading-to-more-goals/
If you don't subscribe, it shows some of his absolutely beautiful dangles, but then goes on to show the lack of hockey sense. Basically he'll take the difficult pass or play over an open shot, try to dangle a defender just because he's there even if it puts him in a worse scoring position.
Hopefully he figures it out, because the raw skill is definitely there.
Why Leafs prospect Semyon Der-Arguchintsev’s dynamic skill set isn’t leading to more goals
https://theathletic.com/748032/2019...dynamic-skill-set-isnt-leading-to-more-goals/
If you don't subscribe, it shows some of his absolutely beautiful dangles, but then goes on to show the lack of hockey sense. Basically he'll take the difficult pass or play over an open shot, try to dangle a defender just because he's there even if it puts him in a worse scoring position.
Hopefully he figures it out, because the raw skill is definitely there.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
That's the big concern with SDA -- he might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer. Not as big a worry as if he were a defender but it may indeed prevent him taking those skills to the professional level. The good thing is that he doesn't lack vision (which can be deadly for a prospect) or balls.
Dopplegangers?
Dopplegangers?
ExceptionallyDumb
Banned
I love the SDA pick but man those numbers make want to write him off completely. That's just not ideal.
Moore isn't much of a prospect at his age but to me he's #4. Rosen just consistently sucks in the NHL. He's not young anymore and he has been given chances. He has just sucked. He doesn't think at an NHL pace.
Outside of the top four and perhaps Ian Scott, I'm not overly optimistic on any of the other prospects. But hey you never know.
For the record, Grundy would have been #5 for me, after mooresy.
That's an elite top two though, with #3 having elite upside. So no complaints really.
Moore isn't much of a prospect at his age but to me he's #4. Rosen just consistently sucks in the NHL. He's not young anymore and he has been given chances. He has just sucked. He doesn't think at an NHL pace.
Outside of the top four and perhaps Ian Scott, I'm not overly optimistic on any of the other prospects. But hey you never know.
For the record, Grundy would have been #5 for me, after mooresy.
That's an elite top two though, with #3 having elite upside. So no complaints really.
LeafGm
Well-known member
SDA's definitely been a big disappointment so far this season. I mean, he's *only* a 3rd round pick, but when Dubas made a point of getting him into a pre-season game and signing him to an ELC his first training camp after being drafted, that kind of raised expectations.
For him to then come out and score at a 0.78PPG rate in his post-draft season doesn't leave me with a ton of hope that this is a player with NHL offensive upside. The one saving grace is that if SDA was born one day later, then 2019 would have been his draft year rather than 2018. So you could argue that he still has time. We'll see though.
He'll need to take a significant leap forward soon.
For him to then come out and score at a 0.78PPG rate in his post-draft season doesn't leave me with a ton of hope that this is a player with NHL offensive upside. The one saving grace is that if SDA was born one day later, then 2019 would have been his draft year rather than 2018. So you could argue that he still has time. We'll see though.
He'll need to take a significant leap forward soon.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
eventually you want to see the tools translate into results. but I'm not 'concerned' yet. we are talking about a 3rd round pick. if his production still looks like this next season, then I think concerns begin to mount.
ExceptionallyDumb
Banned
It's incredibly disappointing and it makes him a longshot tbh. But yeah, never say never.
mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
Lol @ “consistently sucks” in the nhl.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Heh.
Yeah, funny comment, considering Rosen's played a grand total of four NHL games.
And they all happened to be at the beginning of last season, and were his first pro games in North America.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Not sure why. It's not like there is a ton of competition for offensive minutes on the Marlies and he did earn himself any until just recently. I don't put .48 ppg wingers over players with viable statistical profiles, which all of the other 3 you mentioned have.
I was as intrigued as anyone by his brief stint with the Marlies last year but 19 points in 40 games at his age is pretty terrible for an NHL prospect.
Yeah, I have a hard time calling what he does "scoring". 23 yrs old and .59ppg? He plays with rage, which is nice but isn't a great skater at all and has decent hands once in a while but only once in a while. Anyone expecting him to be a full time NHL'er is going to be disappointed imo.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Let me preface my remarks by saying everyone after Bracco and Rosen are long shots (I'd put Moore higher than both). Even those two are 50/50. So, after the first few guys, we're talking about a lot of guys with the odds against making the NHL.
With the AHL there is not much to go by other than eye test and counting stats (unless you want to subcribe and get jeffler's content ... which I don't). Counting stats are useful but they are not nearly enough to make a determination on a player with just half a season under his belt. We know the Leafs treat this team as a developmental one and often take players early on and have them learn things that aren't their strengths. Just saying there's good reason to down weight counting stats for players in their first season with the Marlies.
Engvall's first 49 games with the Marlies produced points that are very similar to Bracco's first 50 games (27 vs 32).
At this stage, you're at the mercy of the eye test with guys like Engvall. He's obviously got a limited ceiling. The question is can he be a good complementary player. I see a guy who skates well, has high IQ, great reach and puck skill. From my viewings, he's solid in all three zones, making lots of smart plays. He's got good potential to be a solid two-way option on the bottom end of the roster. Nothing to get excited about but such is the state of the Leafs prospect pool.
number17
Mod Squad
Speaking of prospects, doesn't the 2015 draft all of a sudden doesn't look nearly as promising as they did 2 years ago? People were so quick to praise Hunter and ready to give him the GM job, let's revisit that magical draft shall we?
#4 - Marner : he's a great player, but you really can't go wrong with all the choices available at that spot in the 2015 draft ... well unless you're Arizona
#34 - Dermott: To give credit where credit is due, drafting Dermott at #34 is a great pick. The fact Dermott can play 2nd unit D at this young age, it's a steal for a 2nd rounder. The only caveat is ... we originally had the #24 pick, and we traded down from that to get Dermott, Bracco and Dzierkais. We could have drafted Konecny at #24, and deciding between Konecny and Dermott + Bracco, I'm not sure I'd take one over the other (more on that later) ... still, as far as scouting is concerned, Dermott at #34 was a steal.
#61 - Bracco : The undersized RW is having a great AHL season, PPG at the age of 21. I am just not 100% sold on Bracco's outlook as a NHL player ... and hear me out. Bracco is a playmaker, he lacks a NHL shot, he isn't especially great skater, and he is very much a 1-dimensional player. I don't see him at a 3rd line checking role in the NHL, 4th line is definitely out of the question. Given he is a pretty 1-dimensional player, and he really relies on his play-making, can he carve out a top 6 role in the NHL? He may, but I'm not going to bet my $$ on it at this point. I see plenty of Kyle Wellwood in Bracco, which may not pan well for him. The fact he's a RW also doesn't help him in this organization.
#65 - Nielsen : At one point, some people even said Nielsen was a better prospect than Dermott ... it is ironic that as a 22 years old, Nielsen has 0G 6 Pts in 26 AHL games. Doesn't look like he'll have a NHL future at all.
#68 - Dzierkals - 12 pts in 38 KHL games as a 21 years old ... doesn't look like a return to the NHL is imminent
#95 - Lindgren - I read some reports that Lindgren's NHL hope may not be completely dead yet, and as a dman he still has a bit of time for development, but at best, Lingren's NHL hope is a distant maybe at this point
#125 - Timashov - the 22 years old LW is on .70 PPG in the AHL ... not looking good for NHL
#155 - Desrocher - he's playing in the OUAA as a 23 years old, never made the AHL after his OHL career is over
#185 - Korostelev - the 23 year old Russia is bouncing between ECHL and AHL
So, at the end of the day, from the 2015 NHL draft the Leafs have a superstar in Marner, a top 3 NHL D in Dermott, and a maybe in Bracco. I wouldn't completely write off Lindgren and Timashov but that's pretty much it for that draft year.
After all the hype, it doesn't look like Hunter did NEARLY as well as we thought he did back in 2016.
#4 - Marner : he's a great player, but you really can't go wrong with all the choices available at that spot in the 2015 draft ... well unless you're Arizona
#34 - Dermott: To give credit where credit is due, drafting Dermott at #34 is a great pick. The fact Dermott can play 2nd unit D at this young age, it's a steal for a 2nd rounder. The only caveat is ... we originally had the #24 pick, and we traded down from that to get Dermott, Bracco and Dzierkais. We could have drafted Konecny at #24, and deciding between Konecny and Dermott + Bracco, I'm not sure I'd take one over the other (more on that later) ... still, as far as scouting is concerned, Dermott at #34 was a steal.
#61 - Bracco : The undersized RW is having a great AHL season, PPG at the age of 21. I am just not 100% sold on Bracco's outlook as a NHL player ... and hear me out. Bracco is a playmaker, he lacks a NHL shot, he isn't especially great skater, and he is very much a 1-dimensional player. I don't see him at a 3rd line checking role in the NHL, 4th line is definitely out of the question. Given he is a pretty 1-dimensional player, and he really relies on his play-making, can he carve out a top 6 role in the NHL? He may, but I'm not going to bet my $$ on it at this point. I see plenty of Kyle Wellwood in Bracco, which may not pan well for him. The fact he's a RW also doesn't help him in this organization.
#65 - Nielsen : At one point, some people even said Nielsen was a better prospect than Dermott ... it is ironic that as a 22 years old, Nielsen has 0G 6 Pts in 26 AHL games. Doesn't look like he'll have a NHL future at all.
#68 - Dzierkals - 12 pts in 38 KHL games as a 21 years old ... doesn't look like a return to the NHL is imminent
#95 - Lindgren - I read some reports that Lindgren's NHL hope may not be completely dead yet, and as a dman he still has a bit of time for development, but at best, Lingren's NHL hope is a distant maybe at this point
#125 - Timashov - the 22 years old LW is on .70 PPG in the AHL ... not looking good for NHL
#155 - Desrocher - he's playing in the OUAA as a 23 years old, never made the AHL after his OHL career is over
#185 - Korostelev - the 23 year old Russia is bouncing between ECHL and AHL
So, at the end of the day, from the 2015 NHL draft the Leafs have a superstar in Marner, a top 3 NHL D in Dermott, and a maybe in Bracco. I wouldn't completely write off Lindgren and Timashov but that's pretty much it for that draft year.
After all the hype, it doesn't look like Hunter did NEARLY as well as we thought he did back in 2016.
number17
Mod Squad
Yes, if you can produce 2 NHLers at every draft you're doing well.
But 1st of all, look at the picks we had in the 2015 draft. We had 2 x 1st rounders (4th and 24th) and total of 8 picks going in. I can't really give Hunter credit for drafting Marner at 4th, and coming up with 1 more player with the rest of the picks isn't exactly witchcraft. I do give him credit for drafting Dermott at 34th.
2nd of all, it's a question of expectation. The way Hunter was praised in 2016, it felt like he was the best scout ever. Now when the dust settles, it sure looks like he was overhyped.
But 1st of all, look at the picks we had in the 2015 draft. We had 2 x 1st rounders (4th and 24th) and total of 8 picks going in. I can't really give Hunter credit for drafting Marner at 4th, and coming up with 1 more player with the rest of the picks isn't exactly witchcraft. I do give him credit for drafting Dermott at 34th.
2nd of all, it's a question of expectation. The way Hunter was praised in 2016, it felt like he was the best scout ever. Now when the dust settles, it sure looks like he was overhyped.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Yeah, while it's fair to say the 2015 draft doesn't look quite as promising as it did at first, I won't knock it.
We got a superstar with our fourth overall pick. You expect to get a great player that high, true, but most of the time you don't.
With our second pick, we got a defenseman who made the NHL full-time at age 21, and at the very least has top-4 upside.
Bracco, whatever else you may think about his game, still has NHL scoring upside at this point.
Those picks all by themselves make the draft a win in my books. And I still won't argue with the strategy of taking a chance on skilled players like Timashov or Korostelev in the later rounds, or letting Thommie Bergman take a swing at picking a puck-moving European defensemen. Most of those picks won't pan out, but I still think it's a winning strategy.
Another thing worth pointing out is Dubas's move to turn the 24th overall pick into Dermott, Bracco & Dzierkals looks like a win in my book. I think Dermott's a more valuable than any of the guys selected between #24-34, and then we've still got a couple more lottery tickets in Bracco and, to a much lesser degree, Dzierkals (who I agree looks like a bust).
I'd say the only storm clouds this draft foreshadowed were the picks wasted on big, physical defensemen (Nielsen & Desrocher), and then how Dizerkals has turned out like every single other player picked or signed out of the KHL during Hunter's watch---a complete waste.