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New Canadian Politics Thread

Altair said:
So I'm wondering if Trudeau can pull off a grand lefty Coalition if we end up in a minority situation
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It will really depend on the balance of power, and how each party wants to position itself. The NDP always has that tough balance - logically, if your platform aligns 75% with the Libs and you can extract a promise out of them by allying, it's the best way to get your plan mostly implemented. But they can't really get too close, since they risk potentially losing voters to the Lib side.

Although really, the NDP has to realize with their current slide, and the fact that the last election was really set up for them from the get-go and they punted it, and then they look at what happened in Ontario where again, they were given a first and goal from the 1 and couldn't get the touchdown, the best thing they can do is try to be a perpetual broker between the Libs and Cons. That's really the best thing they can sell, "vote for us and we'll make sure neither of the other guys has a majority." Whether they actually do that, or foolishly try to run their campaign thinking they have a chance, hard to say. It also always runs the risk of people tuning them out when you pseudo-admit that you have no chance to win.
 
anne25 said:
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/how-the-crowns-case-against-vice-admiral-mark-norman-unravelled?utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles

News reports are that the charges against Admiral Norman will be dropped tomorrow.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/christie-blatchford-crown-expected-to-withdraw-breach-of-trust-charge-against-mark-norman
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1. Good. Was the right thing to do. Hope he comes back soon.

2. Good. Politically saves the government a embarrassing court case at election time. One they wouldn't have won.
 
It is the right thing to do but the damage to a Norman professionally, financially and emotionally is already done. I wouldn’t be surprised if Norman retires now.

For the Liberals dropping the case now might save them from a mess that, according to reports, could have had a much bigger impact than the SNC Lavalin scandal.
 
UWHabs said:
It will really depend on the balance of power, and how each party wants to position itself. The NDP always has that tough balance - logically, if your platform aligns 75% with the Libs and you can extract a promise out of them by allying, it's the best way to get your plan mostly implemented. But they can't really get too close, since they risk potentially losing voters to the Lib side.

Although really, the NDP has to realize with their current slide, and the fact that the last election was really set up for them from the get-go and they punted it, and then they look at what happened in Ontario where again, they were given a first and goal from the 1 and couldn't get the touchdown, the best thing they can do is try to be a perpetual broker between the Libs and Cons. That's really the best thing they can sell, "vote for us and we'll make sure neither of the other guys has a majority." Whether they actually do that, or foolishly try to run their campaign thinking they have a chance, hard to say. It also always runs the risk of people tuning them out when you pseudo-admit that you have no chance to win.
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The NDP and Libs will likely never join. The NDP truly despises the Liberals and Liberals aren't super fond of dippers.

The Libs and the Greens are more of a potential - esp since the Libs have been OK with Carbon Pricing since the Dion days. They also historically line up better fiscally. They both historically can move to the right when need be. Also, I think a lot of big city folks don't understand how a lot of rural NDP voters have very little progressive values other than the union aspect. The Cons can flip rural NDP voters when they campaign well.

The problem is that the Greens think they might get 4 or 5 seats in the next federal election, and as a party that's all that matters. When a party is internally polling well there is usually no interest from that party to join with others.
 
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anne25 said:
It is the right thing to do but the damage to a Norman professionally, financially and emotionally is already done. I wouldn’t be surprised if Norman retires now.

For the Liberals dropping the case now might save them from a mess that, according to reports, could have had a much bigger impact than the SNC Lavalin scandal.
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He's not retiring. I expect to see him at work tomorrow to be honest.

He is going to make a point to show up again to thumb his nose at those who tried to railroad him
 
CaptainBolduke said:
The NDP and Libs will likely never join. The NDP truly despises the Liberals and Liberals aren't super fond of dippers.

The Libs and the Greens are more of a potential - esp since the Libs have been OK with Carbon Pricing since the Dion days. They also historically line up better fiscally. They both historically can move to the right when need be. Also, I think a lot of big city folks don't understand how a lot of rural NDP voters have very little progressive values other than the union aspect. The Cons can flip rural NDP voters when they campaign well.

The problem is that the Greens think they might get 4 or 5 seats in the next federal election, and as a party that's all that matters. When a party is internally polling well there is usually no interest from that party to join with others.
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Yeah, they'll never actually join, but if, say, the CPC and LPC both end up with about 140 seats and the NDP have the 30-something needed to put either party over a majority, what happens in that case?
 
prior to the election, neither the Libs nor the NDP will talk about a coalition or working with the other parties.

after the election, all bets are off.
 
Wayward DP said:
prior to the election, neither the Libs nor the NDP will talk about a coalition or working with the other parties.

after the election, all bets are off.
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I dunno, coalition governments might permanently be a no-go in Canada. The last time it was tried, the Harper Tories (who were then a minority government) successfully convinced a seeming majority of the country that the party with a mere plurality of seats has a God-given right to rule, and coalition governments are tantamount to an undemocratic coup.

Maybe the reaction would be different if such an arrangement didn't include a seperatist party like the Bloc this time, or it didn't happen mid-term to unseat a sitting government.
 
Wayward DP said:
prior to the election, neither the Libs nor the NDP will talk about a coalition or working with the other parties.

after the election, all bets are off.
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I've worked on, campaigned managed and simply been around too many elections to take this claim seriously. I guess anything could happen, but the last time this occurred the NDP teamed up with the Conservatives to take down a Liberal minority.

Jack Layton and the NDP not working with the Martin government in part led to 16 years of Harper rule. You'd be surprised just how much the NDP and Libs hate one another institutionally. The NDP brass in particular when it comes to the Liberals. When you are generally competing for the same voter it becomes human nature to actually become more competitive with one another.

If the Greens become a factor here, they may work with the primary progressive party in the election (likely the Liberals), but you'll be hard-pressed to ever see the NDP and Libs work together.
 
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The senate defeat the west oil tanker ban.

Thank goodness, the Senate actually doing something of worth and sane.
 
Looks like a deal has been reached on steel tariffs between Canada and the USA, and I'm assuming USA Mexico as well.
 
Doug Ford has announced a fiscal emergency that can now be revealed: Ontario has been declared bankrupt. By our own premier.

This is his out after major backlash over all of his senseless budget cuts. They are running scared and panicking.
 
Isn't the Debt to GDP somewhere around 40 percent for Ontario?

How can it be declared bankrupt? Lending agencies would have sounded the alarm way before now.
 
The only emergency is Ford's poll numbers

22% according to a mainstream poll released today. In 3rd, behind the NDP ffs. Liberals in the lead with 40%, John Tory appears to be the more popular potential leader.
 
MindzEye said:
The only emergency is Ford's poll numbers

22% according to a mainstream poll released today. In 3rd, behind the NDP ffs. Liberals in the lead with 40%, John Tory appears to be the more popular potential leader.
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If those kind of polling numbers continue, it'll be interesting to see just how long the PC caucus continue to be willing to clap like trained seals for Dougie and completely defer to his "leadership". If it quickly becomes apparent he's leading them right over a cliff, maybe more cracks start appearing in his caucus support.

You also wonder if any of that stink will waft over to Andrew Scheer and cling to him before the federal election.
 
LeafGm said:
If those kind of polling numbers continue, it'll be interesting to see just how long the PC caucus continue to be willing to clap like trained seals for Dougie and completely defer to his "leadership". If it quickly becomes apparent he's leading them right over a cliff, maybe more cracks start appearing in his caucus support.

You also wonder if any of that stink will waft over to Andrew Scheer and cling to him before the federal election.
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They're less than a year into their term, though, so they'd need a massive revolt in caucus to have any effect. They'd need practically a whole wing of the party to split off to even drop down to a minority.

What it signals more to me is how bad the NDP is. The Liberals got mauled in last election, and even the MPPs they got elected aren't sticking around. How the NDP isn't wiping the floor with them just baffles me.
 
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