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The ****ing Season Thread 2018-19

BeLeafer said:
The funny thing is that Nylander's stats (outside of counting) aren't just good, they're excellent. This guy is going to rebound huge. The way he's been playing, the fourth line plugs might see some pointage tonight.
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2 things to note though:

1) Willy has faced very soft competition, boosting those numbers.
2) the whole team has been excellent possession wise since he came back, so though his numbers look way better than everyone's, his relative numbers shows that they're not quite as much better than the rest of the team in these games.
 
zeke said:
2 things to note though:

1) Willy has faced very soft competition, boosting those numbers.
2) the whole team has been excellent possession wise since he came back, so though his numbers look way better than everyone's, his relative numbers shows that they're not quite as much better than the rest of the team in these games.
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Sure, but they're off the charts good numbers. Just raised to counter the silly idea that he's been playing poorly. If I must qualify it, in his usage he's played excellently.
 
With Matthews it's another story ...

Bill Comeau
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‏ @billius27

#Leafs I have been watching Auston and that led to this research.
- since Oct 15 his goal scoring rate has dropped steadily
- since Dec 13 his expected goal rate based on his individual shot opportunities has been dropping
It's not just "puck luck".
data from @offsides_review

DxTes-fUYAAfCKM.jpg
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Here's Willy, this year vs. last:

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It's almost all scoring in the difference. His defensive metrics are way better and that might be due to the QoC difference.
 
The world according to Mike:

Active Stick
‏ @TheOakLeafs

Student: “I’m struggling in this math unit, any chance I can sit with some of the smarter kids to maybe get up to speed?”

Teacher: “yeah I think I’m gonna send you to the Kindergarten class so you learn to get out of your own way. Here’s a crayon and some fukn pipe cleaner.”
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Hyman works really hard at his math problems, yet despite his best efforts ( and they really are great efforts) 2 + 2 still keeps adding up to 18
 
BeLeafer said:
Sure, but they're off the charts good numbers. Just raised to counter the silly idea that he's been playing poorly. If I must qualify it, in his usage he's played excellently.
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Yeah, I call bullshit.

I dig the idea that over time players who get lots of scoring chances end up more successful, but this is not a small sample size any more. I don't care if he is getting scoring chances if he is not scoring any goals or setting any up for that matter. You don't win games by having more scoring chances. You can turn around and say that he may be playing better than his counting stats indicate which is fine because his counting stats show him to be a completely useless player. But to turn around and say he has been playing excellent hockey is preposterous given his lack of real production. I keep hearing he is going to rebound huge but he has now played 25% of an NHL season and has 3 points. Again, 3 points. That has to be historically bad for a player of his ilk.

Real production matters.
 
leaffan2005 said:
Yeah, I call bullshit.

I dig the idea that over time players who get lots of scoring chances end up more successful, but this is not a small sample size any more. I don't care if he is getting scoring chances if he is not scoring any goals or setting any up for that matter. You don't win games by having more scoring chances. You can turn around and say that he may be playing better than his counting stats indicate which is fine because his counting stats show him to be a completely useless player. But to turn around and say he has been playing excellent hockey is preposterous given his lack of real production. I keep hearing he is going to rebound huge but he has now played 25% of an NHL season and has 3 points. Again, 3 points. That has to be historically bad for a player of his ilk.

Real production matters.
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16 games is a small sample.
 
Willy is shooting 3% (10.9% last season) and his oiSH% is 5% (11.6% last season)

Both are absurdly low and that is absolutely a function of luck, just like Marner's goofy 1st half last season was. Willy would be sitting on 4 goals and 5 assists (all 5 on 5) in 19 games with last year's percentages. Not great, but not far off his 49 point ES pace from last season, considering the missed training camp. I have a hard time blaming Willy for the PP inextricably falling to shit over the last few months.

He needs more reps and more minutes with skilled players, not a seat on the short bus.
 
Neurospasm said:
Except even according to the Leafs staff they weren't expecting anything for the first 12 games...
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Which begs the question, why did they not let him sit and catch up for the first few weeks before immediately thrusting him into the lineup?

That would be a legitimate gripe against Babcock.
 
leaffan2005 said:
Which begs the question, why did they not let him sit and catch up for the first few weeks before immediately thrusting him into the lineup?

That would be a legitimate gripe against Babcock.
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How is a player supposed to "catch up" while they're sitting out?
 
I'm guessing Holl is a laid back, easy going guy. Not the kind of energy that Mike likes. He thinks energy is infectious. That same kind of Merlinesque thinking that provides him with undying certainty that Marleau will shave 10 years off at the end of February.
 
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