Volcanologist
Well-known member
We need better scouting over in Russia.
The ****ing Season Thread 2018-19
- Thread starter BeLeafer
- Start date
Wayward DP
Well-known member
1. Zaitsev will not be easy to rid, and if we can't get rid of him we'll have to hide him (and his $4.5M contract) on our 3rd unit.
2. No sign suggests Liljegren or Sandin are going to be ready for the NHL next season, never mind this season. If they are dominating in the AHL it's one thing, but they are not. And this organization has not rushed young dmen under current regime.
3. I don't see how we can bring Jake back, given the contract demand of Marner and Matthews this summer (not to mention Kapanen). This is where Zaitsev's contract will really bite us in the butt because that $4.5M can easily go towards helping keep Gardiner in the fold. Unless we can somehow get someone to take Zaitsev's contract, I'd say Jake is good as gone.
Hey Lou, it's only fair you take the bad contract off our hands since you are the one who signed him .... right?
I still think we can dump Zaitsev pretty easily. Maybe not for value, but there are enough old school type folks in the league (like Lou) who will like what Zaitsev brings.
Liljegren would have been up in the second half this year if not for his ankle sprain (and may still be up), so I'm not sure why you think neither will be ready for next year. Not to mention we have Rosen who looks to have earned a shot, Holl who we still don't know what we have, etc. Bottom pair d depth is currently a strength of ours, but we lack adequate top-4 d, especially on the right side.
I think Jake only fits on a) a discount; and b) if we unload Zaits and/or Brown and/or Marleau. But it may still be possible.
And honestly, I could definitely see Lou trading for Zaits. I don't even care what we get in return as long as we're not retaining salary or handing out high picks either.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Just to throw out a name that would likely be available, probably wouldn't cost a lot, and would be a solid upgrade on Zaitsev.
Nick Jensen. Mid pair usage, pretty good nerd stats, can make an exit pass.
This summer I'd be interested in looking at the asks for Stralman, MDZ, & Edler, & Jensen (pending UFA). I know Zeke is rock hard about the idea in going with a blueline that can't drink a post game beer in most of the US, but I'm significantly less interested in that than he is. I just want our veteran defenders to play like steady veteran defenders. If Babcock wants a Hainsey, well Edler/Stralman is a good version of what he thinks Hainsey is. Whatever Zaitsev is supposed to be, let's find someone who can actually do it. We're likely going to need to replace at least 3 defenders next year, and frankly, the 4th (Ozzy) has been okay, but not good enough to gift a spot to (he should be competing with Lilly for that spot imo).
Rielly-XXXXX
Dermott-XXXXX
Sandin-Ozzy/Lilly
Is our best case scenario for doing this internally, with Dermott maybe able to slide to the right on that pairing if finding a LHD turns out to be easier.
Nick Jensen. Mid pair usage, pretty good nerd stats, can make an exit pass.
This summer I'd be interested in looking at the asks for Stralman, MDZ, & Edler, & Jensen (pending UFA). I know Zeke is rock hard about the idea in going with a blueline that can't drink a post game beer in most of the US, but I'm significantly less interested in that than he is. I just want our veteran defenders to play like steady veteran defenders. If Babcock wants a Hainsey, well Edler/Stralman is a good version of what he thinks Hainsey is. Whatever Zaitsev is supposed to be, let's find someone who can actually do it. We're likely going to need to replace at least 3 defenders next year, and frankly, the 4th (Ozzy) has been okay, but not good enough to gift a spot to (he should be competing with Lilly for that spot imo).
Rielly-XXXXX
Dermott-XXXXX
Sandin-Ozzy/Lilly
Is our best case scenario for doing this internally, with Dermott maybe able to slide to the right on that pairing if finding a LHD turns out to be easier.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Poor Jake. One bad game where he wasn't even terrible or anything.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Sort of...Jake did Jake things on that goal, and just took the heat for the team from the crowd for their general lackluster effort. I mean, I feel for him to a degree because Toronto fans are generally terrible to their defenders (Rielly is literally a top 3 selection for the Norris if the vote is held today and he still gets questioned heavily ffs), but he is a guy who makes spectacular mistakes and those are just easier to remember. I don't think the fanbase is over the boston collapse and he was a special level of shit that helped allow it to happen.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Our drafting over there during the Hunter years appears to have been an absolute horror-show, not even to mention our UFA signings.
Still kind of painful that we took Yegor Korshkov with what would now be a 1st round pick (31st overall) with players like Kyrou & DeBrincat still on the board.
Artnes
Well-known member
Speaking of scouting I read a few tweets today from a guy not being overly happy with the early returns on the 2018 draft citing Pronmans latest draft rankings
I know he is well known in the scouting world but I would be curious to what his success rate has been. Every year his rankings differ quite a bit from the consensus
https://twitter.com/ml7hockey/status/1085239728733995010?s=21
I know he is well known in the scouting world but I would be curious to what his success rate has been. Every year his rankings differ quite a bit from the consensus
https://twitter.com/ml7hockey/status/1085239728733995010?s=21
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
He was yet another guy who had Mittelstadt ranked better than Elias Pettersson...so there's that. Here's his top 50 mid season prospects from last year:
1) Mittelstadt
2) Tolvanen
3) Heiskanen
4) Necas
5) Borgstrom
6) Thomas
7) Kaprizov
8) Vilardi
9) Strome
10) Pettersson
11) Chytil
12) Makar
13) Lilly
14) Glass
15) Kapanen
16) Fox
17) Suzuki
18) Tippett
19) Kyrou
20) Yamamoto
21) Vesalainen
22) Nick Merkley
23) Steel
24) Nylander
25) Brannstrom
26) Troy Terry
27) Logan Brown
28) Kylington
29) Kostin
30) Gusev
31) Frost
32) Heponiemi
33) Juolevi
34) Abramov
35) Batherson
36) Jokiharu
37) Clague
38) Poehling
39) Valimaki
40) Ian Mitchell
41) Kunin
42) Sikura
43) Phillipe Myers
44) Aho (NYI)
45) Kuokkanen
46) Timmins
47) Texier
48) Scherbak
49) Bracco
50) Harper
My first take on his list is that he got real eye testy over the last few years. He used to jerk off of small guys with great production (Debrincat, Keller) and he was right to do so. When I read his take on the prospects who have largely suffered since he wrote this, there were a lot of statistical red flags already that he cast away and opined about their skill.
Second thing that I noticed is that he also seems to massively over rate being just good at the NCAA level. Impact NHL players were almost uniformly ridiculously elite in the NCAA.
Third but most obvious is that the best prospect on his list (that I was comparing extremely favourably to Mittelstadt this summer) is 10th....Pettersson was in the middle of pure dominance in the SHL and he got ranked behind a bunch of guys who were just good in other similar leagues, or guys who were really good but not elite in Canadian junior (Robert Thomas)
It's weird that in a bunch of his tweets you'll see him refer to age appropriate production raising red flags (which is right, it's one of, if not the strong predictor of future offensive ability in higher leagues) but he always seems to have an eye test reason for doubting the age appropriate production
In regards to his not liking our most recent draft, he jerks off over the guys taken at our slot (Bokk) who is a forward, and has a lower PPG in the SHL than Sandin has in the AHL (he has Sandin ranked 56th amazingly). He's also omitted Liljegren from his list altogether with Lilly basically answering every question Pronman had about him in the mid term last year where he ranked 13th. Pronman's issues with him were that he couldn't defend, and in the last calendar year Lilly's defensive game has very clearly come a long way. There is literally nothing Lilly has done over the last calendar year that could have dropped him so far down a scout's list.
I also see him refer to performance in the WJHC a lot in his write ups and I've already ranted about how ****ing useless that is as an evaluation tool.
Basically I see Pronman as a guy who was way ahead of the curve 5-6 years ago when it came to valuing small players with great production. Everyone under valued them back then, and it's almost like he's been unable to develop a new trick now that most of the hockey world has caught up to how good the Debrincat's and Keller's are, and his response has been to go backwards in his method of analysis and not forward. His write ups are basically a shot gun blast of scouting cliches now.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Sandin should be ahead of Lilly, I've got no qualms there. But both are top 15-20 prospects right now. Him rating 3rd & 4th line SHL & KHL forwards over 1st pairing AHL defenders at the same age is crazy talk.
zeke
Well-known member
weird comment.
Dman Sandin is more productive in the AHL than forward Bokk is in the SHL.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
No idea how to rank them but I think less of Liljegren than most around here. Strikes me that he'll top out at second pairing (which is good). Then again, there's almost as much voodoo in blueline prospects as goalies.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
So much of how people like this view things is based on rankings and draft position/expectations. Their opinions are worth even less than the ranks.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I still struggle with where you come up with that assessment. I look around the league at the better 2nd pairing defenders out there and look at where they were at the same age Lilly is and he comes out head and shoulders better than more or less all of them
For example, if we just look at the #2 defenders in the eastern conference:
- Niskanen put up 3 points in 13 AHL games (after a good but unspectacular NCAA season) as a 21 yr old. NHL full timer by 22.
- McDonagh scored 8 points in 38 games in the AHL as a 22 yr old
- Petry didn't make an impact in the AHL until he was 23, with 24 points in 41 games. At 19 he was in the middle of an okay NCAA rookie season.
- At 19, Krug was in the middle of an okay NCAA rookie season
- Jake Gardiner was in the middle of a 13 point NCAA sophomore season at 19 yrs old
- Dumoulin was in the middle of a pretty good NCAA sophomore season, but in his first taste of AHL hockey at 21 yrs old put up 24 points in 73 games.
- Nick Leddy put up 10 points in 22 games in the AHL at 19
That's the #2 defender on most of the good teams in the east (I omitted Columbus because Werenski isn't really a #2, he's a top 15-20 defender), and Liljegren is currently at a development point more advanced than the majority of this list was at the same age. He's already a good AHL defender at 19 yrs old. I don't think you give that as much credit as it deserves. Needless to say, he's miles ahead of where "2nd pairing" defenders would expect to be at the same age.
Artnes
Well-known member
Stranger that he is automatically choosing to take the opinion of Pronman over a guy who has been scouting junior players since he was 15 and is a NHL GM at 32
BeLeafer
Well-known member
You're basing it all on points production, which is a poor way to evaluate a blueliner. Maybe I'm old school or something but I think learning to play the position in your own end comes first. Otherwise, they're just forwards who can skate backwards.
In any event, I just don't see this big potential in Liljegren. You've got very little to compare for a teenager in the AHL and you are putting a lot of stock in his points production playing for a team that scores a lot.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Well, one of the best things about the internet is that everything we all say is locked here forever.
https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/top-100-prospects-2016-nhl-draft/story?id=39091742
His pre draft rankings in 2016
1) Laine
2) Matthews
3) Pool Party
4) Keller
5) Dubois
6) Tkachuk
7) Nylander
8) Juolevi
9) Jost
10) Fabbro
11) Chychrun
12) Brown
13) Rubstov
14) Bellows
15) DeBrincat
16) Kunin
17) Serchachev
18) Benson
19) Bean
20) Mcleod
The good: DeBrincat. He was way ahead of the curve on Debrincat (as I noted earlier). Just a great reach.
The bad: Well...the Laine over Matthews hot take was always a bad one. Pool Party at 3 has turned out ugly (though it was the consensus, and Dubois was a surprise at 3, so certain amount of excuses are acceptable here imo), but Keller over Tkachuk and Dubois looks really bad right now imo. Keller is a good skill midget and all, but the other two seem to match or better him offensively while bringing all sorts of additional influence to games. Juolevi, Chychrun, Fabbro over Sergachev looks bad as does his ongoing love affair with mediocre USHL players like Keifer Bellows. He seems to have to over rate a handful of them every draft or prospect list he makes. I didn't include it on the list, but McAvoy at 26 is looking proper ugly right now.
Overall, I'd give this a really strong "meh" for his performance as a scouting guy with a side order of "you're fired" if he turned this in to his GM if they had the #1 or #4 pick in this draft.
https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/top-100-prospects-2016-nhl-draft/story?id=39091742
His pre draft rankings in 2016
1) Laine
2) Matthews
3) Pool Party
4) Keller
5) Dubois
6) Tkachuk
7) Nylander
8) Juolevi
9) Jost
10) Fabbro
11) Chychrun
12) Brown
13) Rubstov
14) Bellows
15) DeBrincat
16) Kunin
17) Serchachev
18) Benson
19) Bean
20) Mcleod
The good: DeBrincat. He was way ahead of the curve on Debrincat (as I noted earlier). Just a great reach.
The bad: Well...the Laine over Matthews hot take was always a bad one. Pool Party at 3 has turned out ugly (though it was the consensus, and Dubois was a surprise at 3, so certain amount of excuses are acceptable here imo), but Keller over Tkachuk and Dubois looks really bad right now imo. Keller is a good skill midget and all, but the other two seem to match or better him offensively while bringing all sorts of additional influence to games. Juolevi, Chychrun, Fabbro over Sergachev looks bad as does his ongoing love affair with mediocre USHL players like Keifer Bellows. He seems to have to over rate a handful of them every draft or prospect list he makes. I didn't include it on the list, but McAvoy at 26 is looking proper ugly right now.
Overall, I'd give this a really strong "meh" for his performance as a scouting guy with a side order of "you're fired" if he turned this in to his GM if they had the #1 or #4 pick in this draft.