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The Mother****ing Off Season Thread

Killer93 said:
Willy switching to #88 and covering cost to re-do jerseys for fans.
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I actually have a Nylander jersey, so I'll have to decide whether or not to take up that offer.

Stick with the OG #29, or switch to #88?


WellPlayed said:
Glad he's changing his number. All these 20's and 30's suck.
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Yeah, Leaf rookies have gotten the shit-end of the stick for a while, number-wise.

During the Burke/Nonis era, they were all given numbers in the 40's, which is why Bozak, Kadri & Komarov ended up as #'s 42, 43 & 47. I guess Rielly also ended up as #44, but that worked out fine for him, since he was #4 in junior, and the #4 was already occupied by Cody Franson when he started with the Leafs.

Then during the Lou era, all rookies had to take numbers under 30, with the exception of Matthews, who they allowed to wear his father & grandfather's #34. Wonder if Mitch would switch too if given the choice. Maybe not, since the #93 he grew up wearing is retired for Dougie.
 
LeafGm said:
I actually have a Nylander jersey, so I'll have to decide whether or not to take up that offer.

Stick with the OG #29, or switch to #88?



Yeah, Leaf rookies have gotten the shit-end of the stick for a while, number-wise.

During the Burke/Nonis era, they were all given numbers in the 40's, which is why Bozak, Kadri & Komarov ended up as #'s 42, 43 & 47. I guess Rielly also ended up as #44, but that worked out fine for him, since he was #4 in junior, and the #4 was already occupied by Cody Franson when he started with the Leafs.

Then during the Lou era, all rookies had to take numbers under 30, with the exception of Matthews, who they allowed to wear his father & grandfather's #34. Wonder if Mitch would switch too if given the choice. Maybe not, since the #93 he grew up wearing is retired for Dougie.
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i always think OG is best
 
ELC Performances, Regular Season and Playoffs, by the Analytics....


C Matthews: 232gms, ES 15:13 (A qoc), 2.60p/60, 2.29p1/60, +0.8cfrel, +2.2xgfrel --- PP 2:22, 6.31p/60, 4.90p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Marner: 261gms, ES 14:19 (A qoc), 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60, -0.5cfrel, -0.0xgfrel ------ PP 2:21, 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60 -- PK 0:30
C Point: 250gms, ES 14:59 (A qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.77p1/60, +0.4cfrel, +0.8xgfrel -------- PP 2:39, 5.79p/60, 3.44p1/60 -- PK 0:48
C/W Aho: 256gms, ES 14:40 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.52p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +1.4xgfrel ------ PP 2:38, 5.07p/60, 3.47p1/60 -- PK 0:32
W Rantanen: 246gms, ES 15:07 (A+ qoc), 1.98p/60, 1.44p1/60, +1.7cfrel, -1.0xgfrel -- PP 3:29, 5.67p/60, 4.20p1/60 -- PK 0:01
C/W Nylander: 198gms, ES 13:45 (B+ qoc), 2.09p/60, 1.54p1/60, +2.4cfrel, +2.0xgfrel - PP 2:14, 5.71p/60, 4.62p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Ehlers: 251gms, ES 13:52 (B+ qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +0.2xgfrel ----- PP 2:15, 3.73p/60, 2.77p1/60 --- PK 0:01
 
Bobby Margarita
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As for Marner, my view from afar is that it’s probably close to or at the point where TOR hopes an offer sheet is tendered. That would allow/force closure, one way or the other. Match the offer sheet or take the compensation, but it would be done.
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Because, unless I’m reading this wrong, there exists a fundamental difference in the perception of value/term between the two sides and it’s going to make getting a negotiated settlement very difficult. OK, back to vacation. That bike isn’t going to ride itself to town.
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:deal:
 
Paul thinks he's Matthews+

Dubas thinks he's a winger that doesn't score goals.


Seems to me they're still 2+ million apart.
 
Continued...

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Because, unless I’m reading this wrong, there exists a fundamental difference in the perception of value/term between the two sides and it’s going to make getting a negotiated settlement very difficult. OK, back to vacation. That bike isn’t going to ride itself to town.
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Love Marner, but the kid has won no awards, no playoff rounds, and yes did have his best season AFTER getting put on a line with John Tavares. Enough already with the ****ing huge demands
 
There really is no downside to Marner being offer-sheeted at this point.

If it comes in at $10.5M or below (where you just get two first round picks), you just match and move on at a number that's about $800K-1M higher than you would've liked. If he's offer-sheeted above that number, most likely by a bad team (Columbus, for example), then you wave goodbye to Mitchy, take the four first rounders and likewise move on with your summer.
 
Adding in some more recent RFA signings.....here's the last 3 years (including this year) of forward RFA signings over $5m.....



C McDavid (12.5): 222gms, ES 16:13 (A+ qoc), 2.93p/60, 2.27p1/60, +3.5cfrel, +7.5xgfrel ---- PP 2:57, 5.85p/60, 3.20p1/60 -- PK 0:56
C Matthews (11.6): 232gms, ES 15:13 (A qoc), 2.60p/60, 2.29p1/60, +0.8cfrel, +2.2xgfrel --- PP 2:22, 6.31p/60, 4.90p1/60 -- PK 0:01

W Marner (????): 261gms, ES 14:19 (A qoc), 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60, -0.5cfrel, -0.0xgfrel ------ PP 2:21, 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60 -- PK 0:30
C Point (????): 250gms, ES 14:59 (A qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.77p1/60, +0.4cfrel, +0.8xgfrel -------- PP 2:39, 5.79p/60, 3.44p1/60 -- PK 0:48
W Pastrnak (6.7): 178gms, ES 13:46 (B+ qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.74p1/60, +3.9cfrel, +4.1xgfrel --- PP 1:45, 5.76p/60, 4.22p1/60 --- PK 0:01

W Rantanen (???): 246gms, ES 15:07 (A+ qoc), 1.98p/60, 1.44p1/60, +1.7cfrel, -1.0xgfrel -- PP 3:29, 5.67p/60, 4.20p1/60 -- PK 0:01
C/W Aho (8.5): 256gms, ES 14:40 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.52p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +1.4xgfrel ------ PP 2:38, 5.07p/60, 3.47p1/60 -- PK 0:32
C/W Drai (8.5): 204gms, ES 14:08 (A qoc), 2.04p/60, 1.50p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +3.2xgfrel ------ PP 2:34, 5.04p/60, 4.00p1/60 -- PK 0:12
C/W Nylander (7.0): 198gms, ES 13:45 (B+ qoc), 2.09p/60, 1.54p1/60, +2.4cfrel, +2.0xgfrel - PP 2:14, 5.71p/60, 4.62p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Ehlers (6.0): 251gms, ES 13:52 (B+ qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +0.2xgfrel ----- PP 2:15, 3.73p/60, 2.77p1/60 --- PK 0:01

C Eichel (10.0): 209gms, ES 15:19 (B+ qoc), 1.88p/60, 1.44p1/60, -0.1cfrel, +0.1xgfrel ----- PP 3:10, 5.69p/60, 3.79p1/60 --- PK 0:28
C Larkin (6.1): 246gms, ES 14:18 (B+ qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.43p1/60, +0.9cfrel, -2.1xgfrel ------ PP 1:58, 2.34p/60, 1.72p1/60 --- PK 0:46
W Meier (6.0): 228gms, ES 13:20 (B+ qoc), 1.92p/60, 1.48p1/60, +3.2cfrel, +4.3xgfrel ----- PP 1:21, 3.49p/60, 3.29p1/60 --- PK 0:21
W Laine (????): 260gms, ES 13:40 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.57p1/60, -3.4cfrel, -6.6xgfrel ------ PP 3:03, 5.31p/60, 4.40p1/60 --- PK 0:01
C Schmaltz (5.9): 183gms, ES 13:15 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.41p1/60, -2.5cfrel, -3.0xgfrel ---- PP 2:09, 3.37p/60, 1.99p1/60 --- PK 0:38



IMO there are 2 clear outlier contracts here - Pastrnak looks like the steal of this class and imo should be in the 9+ range (though, there is some argument that he is unduly helped by playing on maybe the most dominant line in hockey), while Eichel looks like the clear overpay. Schmaltz also looks a bit rich but phoenix might have needed to overpay to keep him. Then again, its probably no coincidence that the "underpay" is a pure winger, while the "overpays" are centers, because centers are just worth more. Pastrnak is the highest paid pure winger here.

as for the current RFAs...

Laine is a tough one. his production puts him in the 6-7m range but he's just so one dimensional that it'll probably be an overpay.

Rantanen i'm not sure exactly where to place him there - I bumped him up due to his big minutes and elite QOC, despite being not quite as productive as a couple of the names lower than him. .....though i think maybe as a pure winger the guys who play some C below him might better be ranked ahead of him....I think I'd put him in the 8m range but won;t be surprised if his raw totals make him overpaid in the end.

Point should be up over 9m for sure. But we'll see if Tampa gets another steal.

Marner, yeah he should be the highest paid winger, but i'd have him in the same range as Point contract wise due to position.

Yeah, Dubes has to hold firm here. There's just no way Marner can get up into Matthews' range. the 9-10 range seems more than fair for him.
 
Marner isn’t signing for less than $10m. Both sides know it, and if there’s an impasse at the moment it’s probably because Dubas is still trying to make a case for the contract being in the nines, but he’s just posturing. If he’s doing that, he’s going to keep doing it up until training camp and then in the late stages will allow it into the tens and end up between $10m and $10.5m. It’s not happening for less.

No one is offersheeting with an amount that costs four 1sts. And if anyone offersheets for less, we match it. So that issue is irrelevant. Pure noise. This is just both sides digging in till Dubas makes a late give and Marner takes the best and final.

But having said all that, none of the RFAs have signed yet. No reason for Mitch to be the focal point.
 
What’s Matthews? 11.5 or something like that?

Why would Marner accept less than in the 10s? I agree with you.
 
Habsy said:
What’s Matthews? 11.5 or something like that?

Why would Marner accept less than in the 10s? I agree with you.
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Because of comparable contracts around the NHL. Not sure why every opposing fan/mediot alike think the Leafs should be the ones breaking records for young contracts whenever one of their guys is up for a new contract.
 
It all stems from a lack of appreciation for what Matthews has done so far.

That is the entire reason for this Marner nonsense.
 
Habsy said:
Hence taking a mil less per makes sense no?
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that's a very simplistic way of looking at contract negotiations (ultimately this is probably where we land, but it is not a reflection of the market and past comparables)

if we're to believe Paul's reporting, Marner wants to be the highest paid winger in hockey, as an RFA. his demands would literally set new records. and it's all based on the premise that he is as good or better than Matthews, which in my opinion at least is verifiably untrue.

these are, IMO, the biggest reasons he deserves less than Matty, and less than $10 m per based on market rates:
- goal scoring (Matty scores a lot, he doesn't
- position (Matty is a centre, they (deservedly) get paid more)
- Matty is just better than Mitch, and the numbers bear this out

now, I do think he'll end up getting over $10 m annually, and I will be curmudgeonly about it, but better that than lose him.
 
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