GDT #20: NOV 13, 7:00, SN - Leafs @ Isles

[zeke]

Return of Tavares 2.0. Hope it goes better than past time.

Once again there seems to be no explaining the Isles' success by any other stat other than sv%, but with the goalie switcheroo it's getting harder and harder to dismiss it as just goaltending. They just don't let up goals. The "scoring chances" they give up are just less dangerous than the scoring chances other teams give up, for whatever reason.

Kind of a big gut check game to start off a big gut check week. The Leafs could be in a very, very precarious position at the end of the week if they don't play better - they'll be past the quarter mark and getting to the end of November well out of a playoff spot if they don't show up....and that starts to get into the "unlikely makes playoffs" point in the sked if they're not close. That's even "fire coach" time for many orgs - the Blues fired Yeo on Nov19 last year.

So it looks like corsica is down for good maybe, so I'm now using evolving-hockey.com.

The problem is that they a) don't adjust for zone deployment in their adjustments, and b) they dont use any quality of competition metric at all. So that really sucks.

So we have no way of comparing qualcomp anymore, unfortunately. And now we have to eyeball zone effects, too - which is as hard as eyeballing qoc effects was before. Big double whammy.

So at least I've decided to use my own Zone metric - I take the ozone starts and subtract the ozone starts (all starts - not just faceoffs) to come up with a Zone Differential or Zone +/- to at least give us an idea 9d how the players are deployed.

You'll notice immediately that Babcock is employing some stunningly extreme usage - the top lines are getting the easiest zone deployment in the league, while the 4th line is getting absolutely buried in zone deployment.

This at least makes the 4th line's awful possession numbers more understandable - though remember they looked bad even after corsica's zone adjustments, too.

You can see an immediate contrast in coaching deployment with the Isles, at least - the differences in their line usages is much more modest.

And yeah these stats are going to be for just this season only from now on.

 

[Preston]

Yeah this is a real real real good team. Often losing the corsi battle but winning the xgf battle. For the second year in a row. No coincidence.

 

[Kritter]

It is funny so many of you lay so many of the Leafs "problems" at the feet of Babcock, and then seem to be confused as to why the Islanders have improved so much since Trotz took over at the helm

 

[zeke]

Yeah this is a real real real good team. Often losing the corsi battle but winning the xgf battle. For the second year in a row. No coincidence.

but they don't even win the xgf battle.

and their xga/60 is actually bad.

 

[leafman101]

From Friedman:

One coach told me his team’s internal metrics indicate that no one spends more time in their own zone than the red-hot New York Islanders. He wondered how that was possible, so he took a look. Answer: “They let you go where they want you to go — on the outside.” You get time, but you don’t get quality.

Not sure how good that actually is.

 

[Preston]

but they don't even win the xgf battle.

and their xga/60 is actually bad.

But their xgf significantly outperforms their corsi, no? They're doing something right because this is becoming a significant sample size now.

 

[zeke]

It is funny so many of you lay so many of the Leafs "problems" at the feet of Babcock, and then seem to be confused as to why the Islanders have improved so much since Trotz took over at the helm

I've said Trotz was super elite for years. I wanted him when we signed babs, and the caps took Barry.

 

[zeke]

But their xgf significantly outperforms their corsi, no? They're doing something right because this is becoming a significant sample size now.

yeah, but their xgf% is neck and neck with the leafs' this year.

 

[Preston]

yeah, but their xgf% is neck and neck with the leafs' this year.

So in other words the Isles should be an example on the limitations of xgf. Or perhaps proof that it is flawed in some ways. Because another successful season and it's hard to deny how good they are.

 

[zeke]

So in other words the Isles should be an example on the limitations of xgf. Or perhaps proof that it is flawed in some ways. Because another successful season and it's hard to deny how good they are.

well, yeah, that would be what I suggested in the OP.

unless it is all just goaltending, of course.

 

[Artnes]

From Friedman:



Not sure how good that actually is.

They are currently 14th in HDCA and 4th in HDGA 5v5

 

[leaffan2005]

Or it could be that the stats are flawed, as I have said for years now.

 

[zeke]

Or it could be that the stats are flawed, as I have said for years now.

they certainly aren't perfect.

but the Isles seem either to be doing something very special....or they're just getting great goaltending.


for the record, Varlamov's .924 in 8gms is damn good, but not out of line with what he's done before (career .916, 4 times over .920).

it's Greiss' .942 in 9gms which is more extreme. though then again, Greiss also has a career .916, and 4 times over .920, so him being good again in a strict platoon role wouldn't be a shocker.

Lehner's numbers are even better with the hawks this year, too.

 

[MindzEye]

From Friedman:



Not sure how good that actually is.

I guess that's theoretically possible, but I don't know how repeatable a skill it is to give up league bottom puck possession in your own zone, while keeping chances against to a reasonable number. Sounds like something you might be able to pull off against bottom 15 teams, only to get spanked by top 15 teams by doing.

 

[Artnes]

they certainly aren't perfect.

but the Isles seem either to be doing something very special....or they're just getting great goaltending.


for the record, Varlamov's .924 in 8gms is damn good, but not out of line with what he's done before (career .916, 4 times over .920).

it's Greiss' .942 in 9gms which is more extreme. though then again, Greiss also has a career .916, and 4 times over .920, so him being good again in a strict platoon role wouldn't be a shocker.

They have really made me buy into the tandem going forward as long as you have a plan in place to get them close to equal opportunity

It wouldnt work with a guy like Babs

 

[zeke]

They have really made me buy into the tandem going forward as long as you have a plan in place to get them close to equal opportunity

It wouldnt work with a guy like Babs

yeah i've always been a believer in tandems and riding the hot hand in net, though then again I've always felt they should be cheaper to get than what the Isles are paying.

but maybe the new equipment rules are starting to show a greater separation in goalie talent that maybe it's worth paying a bit more for.

 

[zeke]

Or it could be that the stats are flawed, as I have said for years now.

they certainly aren't perfect.

but the Isles seem either to be doing something very special....or they're just getting great goaltending.


for the record, Varlamov's .924 in 8gms is damn good, but not out of line with what he's done before (career .916, 4 times over .920).

it's Greiss' .942 in 9gms which is more extreme. though then again, Greiss also has a career .916, and 4 times over .920, so him being good again in a strict platoon role wouldn't be a shocker.

Lehner's numbers are even better with the hawks this year, too.

That being said, i have no issue concluding that the isles are actually making their scoring chances less dangerous than other team's scoring chances.

 

[leaffan2005]

That being said, i have no issue concluding that the isles are actually making their scoring chances less dangerous than other team's scoring chances.

Hopefully you can then conclude that the Leafs regularly make their scoring changes against more dangerous than other teams, as has been the case for a few years now.

 

[zeke]

Hopefully you can then conclude that the Leafs regularly make their scoring changes more dangerous than other teams, as has been the case for a few years now.

I definitely think Matthews shooting from point blank is more dangerous than most.

 

[Wayward DP]

I definitely think Matthews shooting from point blank is more dangerous than most.

Tavares too.

Read in Siegel's article today that of players who scored 10+ goals last year, only Anders Lee had a lower avg shot distance than JT