Hey Nerds: Blockchain

[CH1]

Good idea. I've only paid passing attention, but the expectations I'm seeing online is that there will be significant write downs and some interesting explanations for certain significant expenses.

And because it's still the industry heavyweight, I indirectly have a position through my other cannabis holdings.

 

[MindzEye]

Also seems like PYX ran out of sellers.

Yeah, nice little rally after a shite opening 10 minutes and in general a nice bounce back after that shitshow sell off on the 8th.

 

[Preston]

TRUL earnings also after hours. Anyone playing those? Canopy may well bring down the entire sector so it's a risk for sure.

But they've been beaten and abused and will have some record breaking numbers.

 

[GEEMAN]

Wouldn't surprise me to see SPX lose another 80 points by end of week. Lots of warning signs, and with big hedge funds on vacation, won't take much to flash crash this thing.

Trumps idle tweets have lost their power (unless he does something radical like fire Powell). His Santa Tarriff rally lasted just a few hours.

How much of this market decline is tied to the inverted yield curve , liquidity and or margin calls ?

 

[CH1]

How much of this market decline is tied to the inverted yield curve , liquidity and or margin calls ?

Hard to say. The last 9 times the curve yield inverted, a recession has followed within an average of 14 months. In the past, the market made new highs before the recession, but what's different is the indicator is now splashed on the cover of every publication. So, we might be jumping the gun, and/or the indicator could fail (9 out of 10 would be still a great indicator) or rates are so low, the curve doesn't matter as much, etc, etc

There's a bunch of other reasons investors might be taking risk off: trade wars, Hong Kong, Trump, etc.

Also, scary: European bank stocks are testing their 2008 levels. Argentina stock market lost 48% in one day this week.

 

[zeke]

Hard to say. The last 9 times the curve yield inverted, a recession has followed within an average of 14 months. In the past, the market made new highs before the recession, but what's different is the indicator is now splashed on the cover of every publication. So, we might be jumping the gun, and/or the indicator could fail (9 out of 10 would be still a great indicator) or rates are so low, the curve doesn't matter as much, etc, etc

There's a bunch of other reasons investors might be taking risk off: trade wars, Hong Kong, Trump, etc.

Also, scary: European bank stocks are testing their 2008 levels. Argentina stock market lost 48% in one day this week.

im a broken record on this - the fact that we're back at jan 2018 levels again is one thing, but i still think the big 2017 "trump surge' was mostly flim flam too, and is pretty vulnerable to a simple loss of confidence.

not gonna pretend to know anything about bond yield curves but they sound sinister.

 

[CH1]

I also believe the market is pricing in a possible Warren presidency.

 

[zeke]

I also believe the market is pricing in a possible Warren presidency.

why are hedge funds taking a hammering and manufacturing getting a boost?

 

[CH1]

why are hedge funds taking a hammering and manufacturing getting a boost?

Not sure I follow.

 

[zeke]

Not sure I follow.

what are they pricing in, exactly? just the general tax hikes / regulation stuff?

because her economic plans include a whole bunch of rule changes and money spent that should be a big boost to the domestic manufacturing sectors.

 

[MindzEye]

what are they pricing in, exactly? just the general tax hikes / regulation stuff?

because her economic plans include a whole bunch of rule changes and money spent that should be a big boost to the domestic manufacturing sectors.

Rigid ideology is a hell of a drug. If they perceive her as a threat economically, it will play out in the markets as if she's a threat. Whether or not her policies actually threaten the economy (they don't, she would actually be the best thing for the economy at large imo) is another issue entirely.

 

[CH1]

what are they pricing in, exactly? just the general tax hikes / regulation stuff?

because her economic plans include a whole bunch of rule changes and money spent that should be a big boost to the domestic manufacturing sectors.

A Warren Presidency is just one element in the forecast. Giant Fund money is rarely a referendum on one item (and because of the amount of money involved they have to discount several months ahead).

Warren is perceived as a candidate that is less friendly to the free flow of capital (higher taxes, more regulation. more financial industry oversight. etc)

 

[Altair]

So with rates already so low, what can be done to soften a recession other than printing ridiculous amount of money?

 

[MindzEye]

So with rates already so low, what can be done to soften a recession other than printing ridiculous amount of money?

A bunch of recession spending on the government credit cards....but good Keynesian spending, not tax cuts for the wealthy. Build out transit, telecom infrastructure (like , tomorrow's tech not yesterdays), free labour retraining for in demand fields, etc

 

[Preston]

I uhhh didn't do all that bad today in the weed patch.

 

[CH1]

 

[Preston]

The guy gets more manic every day. He's ****ing insane.

 

[CH1]

He's so f ucking soft. Can't handle a 5-7% correction from All Time Highs.

 

[zeke]

He just called hong kong a bigger problem than xhina. Lmao.

#freedom #maga

 

[MindzEye]

I uhhh didn't do all that bad today in the weed patch.

My only long hold was even today, which is a pretty big win. Still waiting for entry on other things that have caught my eye....I will continue to wait.