Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
Bruce will take his advisory talents to @VireoHealth. IDK if true but if that
the fact the SP < intrinsic value of licenses (12 states incl NY MN) all the better.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Full disclosre, I love Bruce. I think he was the right pitch man at the right time for the industry. But it's clear from the smoking wreckage at Canopy that operations isn't his thing and imo we've moved into a period between hype trains (there is another hype train coming when the US gets close enough to legalization for people to get pumped and pile in) where operational ability actually matters. Shit, maybe Bruce is just getting ahead of the game and booking his seat on the next hype train, but in this market, the way it's reacting to anything that isn't operational excellence, shouldn't give a shit that Bruce is getting involved with anyone.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
The night is darkest right before the dawn.
The industry needed a bit of a beat down to more rational levels after the failures of TRST, APH, CGC, etc but SAFE passing the house, and now the likelihood of it passing the Senate with language allowing cannabis assets to be held by federally regulated financial institutions/funds should have been the wakeup call for anyone paying attention.
Like...the Canadian cannabis industry sucks and will continue to suck until retails stops being an abortion. But the US industry isn't far away from launching, yet the US is being irrationally taken out behind the woodshed and shot at the moment despite signs of the pending tidal wave being closer than anyone thought possible 6 months ago.
The industry needed a bit of a beat down to more rational levels after the failures of TRST, APH, CGC, etc but SAFE passing the house, and now the likelihood of it passing the Senate with language allowing cannabis assets to be held by federally regulated financial institutions/funds should have been the wakeup call for anyone paying attention.
Like...the Canadian cannabis industry sucks and will continue to suck until retails stops being an abortion. But the US industry isn't far away from launching, yet the US is being irrationally taken out behind the woodshed and shot at the moment despite signs of the pending tidal wave being closer than anyone thought possible 6 months ago.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Fear. You missed fear as equity and debt capital showed signs of being harder to get your hands on.
You missed irrational levels of fear in the face of the best news US cannabis has ever received.
If I were to put my conspiracy hat on for a moment, smart money is trying to drive retail capitulation selling so they can snag all of this shit at basically the cost of the underlying assets (cash, licenses, dispensaries, extraction and grow facilities, etc).
IAN for example, is valued at about 226 million right now. 74 licenses, a couple dozen dispensaries, a couple hundred thousand sq feet of operating grow capacity, an extraction facility, another million sq ft or so of grow space under construction. Valens is a testing and extracting company valued at roughly the same number, that operates out of one extraction facility in Kelowna that is maybe 16,000 sqft
But, the market can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent, so who knows how the short and medium term is going to look. Cannabis isn't dead though, despite what the market seems to want us to believe right now.
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Preston
MBow30 alt account
Yup. Liquidity issues and being on the shit hole CSE are major pitfalls of the US names right now. Fundamentally speaking, these names are almost all universally undervalued, but I look at the LPs and I'm like... Fucking lord, they still seem bloated to me. And until the LPs are repriced adequately, MSOs will go down with them.
On the plus side, my cash position is extremely substantial. But I don't have it in me to buy shit right now. These LPs suck dick and we're just starting to price that in.