Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

[zeke]

I mean, even you know you're using inaccurate descriptions.

 

[BeLeafer]

The numbers are all posted above.

 

[BeLeafer]

I'm actually shocked by what I found. Up until now, I trusted the way you characterized usage.

 

[zeke]

I'm actually shocked by what I found. Up until now, I trusted the way you characterized usage.

we have accurate percentages, which you are translating to less useful numbers for some reason.

you should have just trusted me.

 

[BeLeafer]

Less than a shift of difference.

 

[BeLeafer]

It fits everything I've seen on qoc and metrics performance -- big impact moving from bottom pair to top four, not so much among top four.

 

[zeke]

we have the accurate percentages.

and we can also see what the percentage difference between good and bad xgf% is.

for some reason you have decided to look at only part of each player's ice time, and translate it into a less useful number.

 

[BeLeafer]

You are mischaracterizing what I did. I followed your directive and analyzed the weak comp too.

 

[BeLeafer]

Generously, 2-3 shifts per game accounting for both stiff and weak comp.

 

[zeke]

what percentage of their toi comes against significantly different quality of competition?

how much would Rielly's xgf change if he swapped those extra minutes vs elite to extr minutes vs grit?

 

[zeke]

Generously, 2-3 shifts per game accounting for both stiff and weak comp.

what percentage of 5v5 shifts does 2-3 shifts represent?

 

[BeLeafer]

You can extrapolate from 2.4 + 3.8 to get 6.2% of toi variance to an entire season. Intuitively, a difference of well less than 10% says the impact cannot be very large.

 

[zeke]

You can extrapolate from 2.4 + 3.8 to get 6.2% of toi variance to an entire season. Intuitively, a difference of well less than 10% says the impact cannot be very large.

what is the peecentage variance between good and mediocre xgf%?

 

[BeLeafer]

I dunno.

 

[BeLeafer]

Probably the same 6.2%

 

[zeke]

less.

 

[BeLeafer]

Sorry, thought you were asking about toi.

In terms of xgf%, it's an apples and bananas comparison.

 

[BeLeafer]

Rielly played 877 minutes 5v5 this past season. That amounts to a season total of 21 more minutes against stiff comp than the lowest among the top four. The impact of those 21 minutes simply cannot move the needle on other metrics. If you want to include stiff and weak, it's 54 minutes. Same conclusion.

 

[zeke]

also realize that this year was the easiest competition rielly has faced in years by a healthy margin. still amongst the toughesy in the league though.

 

[BeLeafer]

It was the year we were discussing, but I would be interested in seeing how it looks for previous years and also how it stacks up to other teams' blueliners.