MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I felt much more comfortable potentially battling an entity that really only wants a shrubbery rather than the mechanical devourer of planets.
OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about
- Thread starter MindzEye
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I felt much more comfortable potentially battling an entity that really only wants a shrubbery rather than the mechanical devourer of planets.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Thread:
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I like this thread. Seems a pretty balanced approach.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
T-cell escape would be a worst case scenario that most experts don't expect but fear. This early small sample seems encouraging. The breakthrough bit is a lock. We know it'll evade immunity quite well.. But protection against severe disease in those breakthroughs will hopefully maintain that ~50-60% level we see from other variants. Worth noting that the majority of people in South Africa are not vaccinated (only around ~25% fully vaxxed) so I'm not sure what the adjusted numbers would show.
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Thread filled with speculation (from a nerd and based on prior lab work)
2 doses --> likely to be close to a complete immunity escape with protection from severe disease still there.
2 doses + infection --> likely to provide strong protection
3 doses --> believes could be similar to 2 doses + infection
2 doses --> likely to be close to a complete immunity escape with protection from severe disease still there.
2 doses + infection --> likely to provide strong protection
3 doses --> believes could be similar to 2 doses + infection
Wayward DP
Well-known member
man. basically just over 30 days till I hit the 6 month mark from dose two and start angrily screaming for my booster...
trujaysfan
Well-known member
Depends if you are going by 6 months or the 168 day timeline some are using (24 weeks). I've hit one but not the other yet
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Hopefully that 3rd dose does the trick to hold us over for the next 4-6 months while Pfizer and Derna manufacture the omicron boosters. Think that's best case scenario and allows us to hold serve. But if it's substantially more transmissive then... Fuck. Can't fix that bit.
By the end of this we're gonna get like 600 needles aren't we
By the end of this we're gonna get like 600 needles aren't we
anne25
Well-known member
Nah. 200-300 needles before we give up. There will come a time when we will get serious about getting the third world vaccinated.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
This should be that wake up call, whether this new one can out compete Delta or not. A heavily mutated varient comes out of a developing nation that has ~25% vaccination uptake due to inability to secure doses. It was one thing for wealthy countries to sit comfortably behind their borders with their plentiful vaccine supply and be comfy in the belief that anything "over there" can't hurt us anymore....this changes that math immediately.
The first world really needs to look into a massive investment in vaccine production. I've seen some projections that the expectation is that the pharma industry will be able to ramp up to produce 1 billion doses a month by the end of the year...and that's kind of fucking incredible.
But it's not close to enough. 7.8 billion people, and it's a 3 dose vaccine....that's bad math for us. There is always going to be massive pockets of poor, densely populated humanity that is underserved by those numbers and providing perfect conditions to spit out a new varient that sends the nerds back to the lab in a race to keep the world from shutting down again. A 6 month turn around time is ridiculous, again fucking incredible...but it's again not enough.
We need to nut up as a species, spend a pile of money on vaccine production capacity that we know in advance, if we do the shit right, we're only going to need once. We need to be able to crank out 20-25 billion doses in 4-6 months, not 2 years. This shit is just going to keep circulating and mutating, circulating and mutating otherwise. Squeeze it out of the rich countries, mutate in the poor countries...over and over again.
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Preston
MBow30 alt account
I will say that South Africa has a serious hesitancy problem. They had to halt vaccine shipments because their just wasn't enough uptake there. Supply exceeded demand which is crazy considering their low uptake.
But.. No guarantee this came out of South Africa. In fact it probably didn't; they just invest a lot in sequencing so they were able to find it first. The working theory is that this stemmed from one immunocompromised individual who had a chronic infection resulted in several significant mutations. This amount of mutations coming out of the blue from regular day to day virus transmission is probably next to impossible according to the nerds. Now whether the immunocompromised person was vaccinated or not... Who knows. Could have easily been.
But.. No guarantee this came out of South Africa. In fact it probably didn't; they just invest a lot in sequencing so they were able to find it first. The working theory is that this stemmed from one immunocompromised individual who had a chronic infection resulted in several significant mutations. This amount of mutations coming out of the blue from regular day to day virus transmission is probably next to impossible according to the nerds. Now whether the immunocompromised person was vaccinated or not... Who knows. Could have easily been.