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New Canadian Politics Thread

Wayward DP said:
for what it's worth:


View: https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1916939141864165464
Click to expand...


Eh, I don't agree with this at all. The Atlantic provinces were already projected by 338 to yield ~7 seats for the CPC and unless we're seeing a significant shift to the right of those projected results in the atlantic provinces, I don't see why we would expect the Quebec & Ontario projections (which are the actually important ones to get right) to be wrong.

Cumberland, Acadia, South Shore, and Miramachi are all toss ups that probably slightly favour the CPC. Saint John - St Croix is CPC leaning, Topique and Fundy royal are deep blue. All 7 of those going blue are already baked into 338's 186 seat Liberal majority projection.

Now....if they lose one of the two LPC leaning toss ups in NFLD, Cape Breton....and the deep red Liberal seats in Atlantic Canada come in with tighter than expected results...well, then hold on tight.
 
Pwner said:
Right now, I am looking at this map, reading the initial results and wondering, ''What does this mean?''

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Get live results from the Canadian federal election

Who will form the next government in Canada? Follow live election results on April 28, with breakdowns from your riding and races across the country.
newsinteractives.cbc.ca newsinteractives.cbc.ca
Click to expand...
Very early and very very few votes counted so far. Newfoundlanders are notoriously slow at all things including vote counting.

Central Newfoundland is one of the big ones. 338 has libs has a slight favorite so I'm interested to see if that holds. CPC with 62% of the vote so far. Pretty strong lead.
 
Pwner said:
Right now, I am looking at this map, reading the initial results and wondering, ''What does this mean?''

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Get live results from the Canadian federal election

Who will form the next government in Canada? Follow live election results on April 28, with breakdowns from your riding and races across the country.
newsinteractives.cbc.ca newsinteractives.cbc.ca

''Ah oh, there are 8 polls reporting, hmmmm only 3 right now...''
Click to expand...

And to think if PP had his way that website wouldn't even exist
 
Preston said:
Very early and very very few votes counted so far. Newfoundlanders are notoriously slow at all things including vote counting.

Central Newfoundland is one of the big ones. 338 has libs has a slight favorite so I'm interested to see if that holds. CPC with 62% of the vote so far. Pretty strong lead.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I am watching it


f549912d-0470-4324-8f62-401a5b51d69a_text.gif
 
Aberdeen said:
If libs start significantly underperforming the polls, even just in Atlantic Canada, I start panicking.
Click to expand...
I think CPC may have central Newfoundland. 62% of the vote with about 20% of the votes counted. 338 had libs as a slight favorite so potentially a strong underperformance there.

The libs don't need that one tho so no need to panic.
 
Have to take 338 results on a riding basis with a grain of salt. I don’t think they have much data at the riding level.

That being said, Cons being ahead in 3 seats in Atlantic Canada is scary.
 
One thing I did just hear on CBC, is that the Libs in Atlantic Canada believe a lot of their vote is in the advance polls, while the Cons are in same day voting.

Just something to keep in mind.
 
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