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2025-2026 Off Season Thread - The Rehappening

He got his biggest opportunity this year and was pretty bad. At this point he has to take some blame here for not showing up consistently.

The hope was that if you give him consistent third line minutes and PP time he would take it and run with it and never look back. But thats not what materialized.

He has to be much better next year.

Eh, even his struggles this season are overblown. He had a rough stretch to start the season, and then was fine. 1G in 19 games...but in mostly 4th line type minutes with only 6 of those seeing him get more than 13 minutes in a game, with his most common linemates over that period being Holmberg (who was dogshit in the first 3/4 of the season).

14 goals over his next 50 games (23G pace, still in 11-12 minutes a night) with a slightly underwater xGRel despite playing with a bunch of guys with heavily underwater xGRel's. Sure, he "has to be better". But when he is better it doesn't seem to change his role or usage at all. Even after his form improved we overlooked him for top 6 roles for Holmberg and Steven fucking Lorentz when those came up.
 
I love Robby. He can easily score 30 goals if they give him Marner's spot beside Matthews.

It's negligence, ignorance, and some pure idiocy the way they've treated him. Literally every single shitty player we've had on the roster has been treated better than he has been.
 
Dom had him as a -5 . He posted his worst production rates 5v5 of his career. He was horrible on the PP despite being a regular on PP2. He was tied for the 63rd worst rel xG% in the league, and that mostly his 21st worst rel XGF imapcts.

I know for a fact that was not your expected outcome if 22 year old Robertson got 3rd line and PP2 minutes. I mean you see him as a potential top 6 offensive guy.

It was a very disappointing year, after he did pretty well in minimal usage. Another year like that just won't cut it.
 
He posted his worst production rates 5v5 of his career.

His assists cratered, his goal rate was still very good and was 4th on the team (even with the terrible start to the season). He spent most of the year passing to Holmberg or Domi. Holmberg specifically is a singularity of offensive suck. If there is micro stat data somewhere showing that he was deeply shit at passing the puck last year, sure. But I haven't seen any.

But here's 23/24 vs 24/25

23/24: 1.33 G/60 (16th in NHL), 1.03 A/60 (.62 1A/.41 2A)
24/25: 1.05 G/60 (45th in NHL), .49 A/60 (.32 1A/.17 2A)

Also of note, is that after the 19 game slump to start the season, Robbie scored at.....1.33 G/60 for the rest of the season, which was 10th in the NHL over that period and his usage didn't fucking flinch. He remained glued to the bottom 6.

He was horrible on the PP despite being a regular on PP2.

9th among forwards in minutes, 5th in G/60 (Higher than Knies, and Marner) overall on the season. Had 0 PP assists on the season, which again feels a hell of a lot like motherfuckers around him not being able to put pucks in nets. Bobby McMann was the only other 2nd unit guy who was scoring PP goals at all. Knies was scoring at a hilariously anemic rate on the PP before being moved to the 1st unit. In the 2nd half of the season, Robertson had the 2nd best PP G/60 on the Leafs to Tavares.



He was tied for the 63rd worst rel xG% in the league, and that mostly his 21st worst rel XGF imapcts.

....Natty has him (min 500 minutes) in 356th out of 592 players and 300th of 592 after he got out of that October-November slump. Not good, but not terrible either. Like I said earlier, he's a middle 6 player for the most part, but one who scores goals and produces offensively at a 1st line rate (despite not getting to play with 1st line talent)

I know for a fact that was not your expected outcome if 22 year old Robertson got 3rd line and PP2 minutes. I mean you see him as a potential top 6 offensive guy.

Started the season ugly, no arguments. But I don't really agree that he was given those roles steadily at all. He was 13th in TOI/G on the team among forwards. When Jarnkrok was healthy, he played more than Robbie. McMann plays 2+ mpg more than Robbie, Holmberg almost a minute per game more than Robbie. He played on a "3rd line" but was the first one nailed to the bench for any reason at all during a game. Similarly, his PP time was basically as the last guy on the 2nd PP unit, and he was regularly pulled off the 2nd PP unit (11th among forwards in PP TOI/G)

Robbie struggled to start the year, 100%. But when he stopped struggling and went back to doing Robbie things, he was never ever fucking rewarded for production and the same pattern of how he's been treated by the organization persisted and he's the only guy held to this weird standard. McMann can suck for weeks and never miss a shift. The gritensity guys can put up a 35% GF for weeks and never miss a shift. Robbie scores 2 games in a row and flubs a pass in the 3rd game leading to a neutral zone turnover? Benched.
 
Has Robbie ever been given even a full game on Matty or Tavares’ wing?

Doesn't look like it. Matty and Robbie spent 19 minutes on the ice together last year (47 minutes over the last 2 seasons), but that's most likely just shift change anomolies and not actual dedicated usage together. 85 minutes with Tavares (over 62 games) but that seems like more of the same. Shift change anomolies.

For comparison:

McMann has 121 minutes with Matthews over the last 2 seasons, and 494 with Tavares
Holmberg has 112 with Matthews & 213 with Tavares
Jarnkrok has 125 minutes with Matthews, & 165 with Tavares (after of course, missing almost all of last season)
 
Doesn't look like it. Matty and Robbie spent 19 minutes on the ice together last year (47 minutes over the last 2 seasons), but that's most likely just shift change anomolies and not actual dedicated usage together. 85 minutes with Tavares (over 62 games) but that seems like more of the same. Shift change anomolies.

For comparison:

McMann has 121 minutes with Matthews over the last 2 seasons, and 494 with Tavares
Holmberg has 112 with Matthews & 213 with Tavares
Jarnkrok has 125 minutes with Matthews, & 165 with Tavares (after of course, missing almost all of last season)

Would have been nice to just seen Robertson given runway like Knies playing with one (or two) of our great players. Give him confidence, lets him play with an all-world defensive center or on a line where they are getting easier comp.

We saw what happened with Knies year over year playing with Matthews. His confidence and play just got better and better. How a lot of teams will play their top prospects - giving them talent to play with and space to grow.

Management is just dumb. One of the better goal scorers this team has seen since Matthews and Nylander and barely giving him a shot. And by the time he gets to be on our third line, he’s already likely been mind fucked with getting benched after any bad game/play for AHL level talent.
 
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