Google will probably win the AI war. Maybe Chat. But there will a ton of Lycos, AltaVista, AskJeeves, etc left in the wreckage
Agreed. The thing LLM AI is best suited for (from a monetization standpoint) is fixing search, which google has broken their version of. LLM AI search is good enough and accurate enough to use to serve ads on, which is why OpenAI has launched a browser.
I don't see anyone else positioned to monetize this at scale and whoever monetizes it at scale the best will win. The subscription model has obvious limitations, the app driven model has obvious limitations. Online search though? Already one of the biggest businesses in the world.
There is going to be an epic crash, but of the companies involved there are a few with high functioning core businesses that don't rely on the AI boom for revenue. Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft. Nvidia is going to get slaughtered in the crash when demand for their product evaporates, and the Elon Cinematic Universe is a house of cards all on it's own without any of this. Of the 5, I don't see AI monetization beyond offering it as an aid for users of their core products for Meta, Apple, or Microsoft. Leaving Google and Amazon. I don't see how AWS monetizes this at scale, it's a pick and shovel company at it's heart, but will do well soaking up all of the discount computer power out there when the bottom falls out, and the marketplace...well yeah, it belongs in the other category. Google is the only one who makes sense.
But in the end, all it's going to do for Google is fix the core product that they've broken over the years. Trillions of dollars of development to rewind the enshittification of their search and create a chatbot that's accurate ~75% of the time it tells you something and regularly needs to be fact checked.